Member Info for JD-Nau

So with Lidsey Opex at $14 per barrel and assuming very conservatively that 20% of the oil in place is recoverable then with oil prices at $63 per barrel (as they are now) we would be looking at $49 per barrel net profit. This would generate £95 million over the life of the well.

The key point in any oil well is always how much oil it produces each day as this is what really drives the revenue generation. If Lidsey produces 250bopd then it would generate $12,250 revenue per day or $4.5 million per year.

In the IPO doc on page 4 Angus said that the target for Lidsey would be to bring it up to 300 bopd which would mean that it would generate $17,150bopd or $6.25 million per year. At that rate of production (approx. 110,000 barrels per year) and assuming that 20% of OIP is recoverable then that would keep going for nearly 20 years.

I also assume that if things get to a stage when they are generating this much money then it would make it relatively easy to drill new wells and increase production and therefore further improve revenues. $6 million a year revenue is certainly a good start as a target and will be more than enough to get a farmin partner on board IMO.

Answering my own question - Lidsey opex is $14 per barrel according to page 14 of the IPO investor presentation: https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Angus-Energy-IPO-Investor-Presentation.pdf

Doriemus do not own any of Lidsey any more. They sold out their 20% back in February 2019: https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Agreement-to-purchase-an-additional-interest-in-Lidsey-Field.pdf

Angus own 80% of Lidsey so there is plenty of room to take on board a farmin partner on board and still be holding a very significant stake.

Since we paid £467,377 for the 20% Doriemus stake then as long as Lidsey can be revalued at over £2.5 million then we are quids in on the deal.

As has been pointed out oil in place is not the same as oil recoverable but if 20% was recoverable then this would be 1,940,000 x 63 = $122 million gross revenue. I think that I remember the costs at Lidsey being about $24 per barrel (but this is memory and not figures so I am happy to be corrected) which would mean that the net revenue would be $75 million net revenue.

Since the production levels matter then at 250 bopd we would be looking at a net revenue of $9,750 per day or $3.5 million per year, which would be plenty enough revenue to attract a farmin partner. Bigger production equals bigger revenues.

Not bad for an asset that I at least had written off as completely worthless for the last year or so.

Can anyone remember what the Lidsey opex costs were?

maxcady - if you are right then Block would be making $14,235,000 net from oil plus $1.4 million from gas = $15,635,000

This would leave an $9.5 million profit after all expenses (based on 2019 costs) had been paid. This is nearly £7 million per annum profit and would have a HUGE impact on the share price.

That said, unless you have some evidence for the 1,000 bopd figure, I think that it is extremely unlikely that numbers this high will come out any time soon. After the next wells are drilled I think that we will be well over this number but not until then IMO.

Hi Hepseal – the reason I am using different numbers and not just your estimate of 375bopd is that I am looking at the finances that the production will generate and what the minimum acceptable levels of production should be for investors to be happy with based on the costs in the 2019 accounts.

275 bopd covers Blocks administrative expenses – below this does not.

Your 375 bopd would just about cover the entire gross loss for 2019 – meaning that the company could then pay for its ongoing operations without having to go to the market to keep the lights on.

Magicpuppy’s suggested number of 427bopd would mean that we were generating an annual profit for the first time.

However, as magicpuppy has pointed out I forgot to include the gas revenues of $1.4 million per annum. This would mean that 275bopd very nearly covers the gross loss for 2019; 375bopd would generate a profit of about $1 million per annum and 427 would see us generating about $1.5 million per annum.

So overall, I would be ok with 275 bopd (but a little disappointed really), pretty pleased with 375 bopd and delighted with anything above 375.

AJamesW - my apologies, I have clearly expressed myself rather badly – please accept the following clarification of what I was saying/

There are two key figures in the overall accounts from 2019 – the total loss for 2019 of $6,130,000 and the Administrative costs of $3,783,000.

As a gross sum at 275bopd Block would generate 275 x 356 x $63 = $6.3 million. However we would have to remove the opex costs from this revenue. I do not know that this figure is myself but I see you have used $24 (which I presume you have taken as being just slightly higher than the $23 that I vaguely recall FFR had as their opex).

Assuming that the opex is $24 per barrel then this would mean that 275 x 365 x $39 =$3,914,625 which is just enough to cover Block’s administrative costs from 2019, which would be ok. Below this (ie not covering costs) would be a disaster.

If we produced 375 bopd at $24 opex it would be: 375 x 365 x $63 = $8,623,125 gross revenue and: 375 x 365 x $39 = $5,338,125 net revenue. On this face of it the net would not be enough to cover the total operating loss but actually since the $633k cost of sales would disappear (as I have already included it in the $24 opex costs) then the gross loss for 2019 would reduce to $5,562,000 and a reduction in depreciation would mean that the revenue covered all of the company’s expenses.

Obviously figures in excess of 375 would be even better and Magicpuppy’s suggested number of 427bopd would mean that the net figure was $6,078,345 and then we would be looking at generating an annual profit for the first time, which should send the share price soaring.

So 285bopd ($6.5 million gross) would be ok and 375 bopd ($8.6 million gross) would be great then.

IMO, under 275 bopd ($6.3 million gross) would be a disaster as it would mean that the company was losing money based on the 2019 accounts.

There will be no quantum shift in this stock until we get rid of the corporate bandits that run this company as their own personal cash cow. They have money to fund their obligations and no idea what to do next.

Get rid of the cost of Gneiss Energy and appoint a director with deal-making skills and there may be a chance. Until then this is not going anywhere.

ReverseSpit your 2 day old ramper account said yesterday that: "Twice as many buys as sells? Looks upside to me."

Following your own logic the fact that there have been almost ten times as many sells as buys today means that it must look like major downside now.

Less than £12k worth of shares traded in a day? Looks like nobody is interested to me.

It is not an opinion that Fitzpatrick could have bought shares in Solo or Scirocco at almost any time between August 2019 and now, it is fact.

The suggestion that was made earlier that Fitzpatrick has not been able to buy shares at any time since before August 2019 is outright false.

Granted, the reasons that I have suggested why he has not bought are merely conjecture but it is interesting that he now owns a significantly higher amount of shares in Block than he does in Scirocco wouldn't you say?

Sorry, just saw your response that it was the AGM on August 27th 2019.

The purdah periods usually only take up a maximum of two months total in any given year. Considering the AGM was over 16 months ago then there has been at least 14 months since then for him to buy shares if he had wanted to.

He hasn't bought more shares since then it is because he has not wanted to and this is because he is already getting as much money out of Scirocco as it is able to give.

There are certain periods of time that directors cannot trade but they do not last very long. What date did you ask him the question?

He is not in a purdah period at the moment. If he doesn't buy now it is because he doesn't want to and he is more interested in Block Energy.

He already controls Scirocco and is getting significant directors fees and over £500k a year in fees for his consultancy company. Now he is more interested in trying to take over Block so he can do the same thing there and start bleeding them dry too.

Scirocco is an afterthought for Fitzpatrick nowadays. He is already extracting the maximum amount of blood the company can give.

Dilution doesn't matter when it is to pay for an expansion of the company assets. The acquisition of the new license and the ability to pay for it's development will be worth more to shareholders than the dilution will cost them.

This share is going to surprise a lot of people over the next 12 months. Moving under the radar of the main market but our time is coming.

Time to hold on and enjoy the ride. This is only going one way now.

This share is going to be one of the big success stories of this quarter. The rise is only just beginning. Get on board

Honestly, you can never tell. It could be any time.