Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks for the numbers RMM those figures are truly mouth watering. It must be very challenging for Sierra to decide which indications to progress on. They'll need serious funding or multiple HNWI's to progress multiple trials. Great find Thoth. Does this mean that TYK2 may be an effective treatment for alzheimers and parkinsons?
That would be truly fantastic. In fact I'm beginning to wonder what TYK2 isn't good for?
Lets hope Tim and John can deliver some great news in the coming weeks.
For the newbies here is a copy of what RMM3383 estimated for Sareums value. Add a dose of Covid treatment and you get to serious numbers.
"Building on what Thoth found at the weekend….There are conflicting sizes for the Parkinsons therapeutics global market size (somewhere between £2.8bn and £4.6bn). I’ve gone with the lower estimate just to be prudent. Roche have achieved annual sales of around £278m with Madopar which equates to a 10% share. If one of our molecules was to perform similarly then the lifetime value would be over £2bn. Given the stage we are at a heavily discounted (90%) value would put 7p on the current SP. Get it into P1, with good data and this could easily rise to 21p. At the higher end of the global market estimate we’d be looking at 11.5 and 34p respectively. However, this tends to pale into insignificance when you look at the Covid therapeutics market (excluding vaccines) which was estimated at £13.2bn in 2020. Given the rate of mutation this could easily double in 2021. If TYK2 was to prove effective and gain a 5% share we’d be looking at sales in the region of £1.3bn pa. However, I think a lower P/E is required as vaccines improve and the industry gets on top of the virus. On this basis discounted value today would be 6p on the SP. Get it to P1 and we’re looking at 19p on the SP beyond that it gets serious. Combined value of TYK2 - my previous estimate was around 20p for where we are currently, add on Parkinsons and Covid and we have a SP in the region of 33p today rising to 60p. Then add in FLT3 and that probably adds another 12p minimum. 737 could add another 15p once it gets kick started in anogenital. Then there’s the SKIL platform which I understand to be worth 6p. Total value today in the region of 93p. On the basis that all the above figures are risk discounted should an offer be made for the company it’s possible that bidding would start at around 40p. IMHO our SP should at this point in time be in the 4-6p bracket but we’ve been suppressed. A 10 bagger should easily get us to 50p. More a question of time and options as to when real value will be achieved. A buyout would certainly get us there but if the pharmas hold out on paying sensible money then we head to P1 and poundland beckons. All the above assumes that 1801, 1802, FLT3 and 737 get to their respective next stages. Also none of the above takes into account AIM ‘frenzy’. Whichever way I look at it, a SP of 2.3p is a huge undervaluation. GLA"
Unfortunately LSE doesn't update the shares in issue very accurately so always check yourself. The RNS on the 14th Aug says 4,871,896,290 shares in issue and on the 29th September another 341,609,235 are issued as options. So 5.2 billion shares in issue at present. It really dilutes your winnings!
Just be careful of dodgy accounting! The figures went from dollars to pence without an exchange rate. And there are closer to 5 billion shares in issue. So 5p would be an MC of £250 million. Still pretty good though. They also may have more announcements to make which could lift it higher.
Good spot Kato. Let's hope we get a nice Christmas present this year! :-)
I'm hoping for the deal to be concluded and for a takeover of the asset at the same time or very soon after. My guesstimate of Market Cap is around 50 to 100 million based on the resource available to PFP after the deal. Only time will tell but the summer is with us already so hopefully not too long to wait. Good luck.
I only stir when people press my buttons! Generally I'm a very calm individual. I started buying PFP around 4 years ago. I started with the odd small buy now and again but have since then built a larger stake as the situation seems to have improved somewhat. It's now my largest investment. How about you?
Hi The Realist,
Try not to be so patronising! I can assure you that I'm not a"newbie". I'm simply keeping an eye on my investment and don't want to lose my money if I can help it! From what information I had at the time the trades were definitely not both buys as the share price at the time didn't increase. There were only 435,000 traded on Monday so I think 11,000,000 would have had more impact. I now realise that they were rollover or someone swapping shares between dealing and ISA accounts for example. If one of the significant share holders starts off-loading I want to know about it. But I hope to make significant gains if the rumours are true. Fingers crossed.
Did Align just sell 11 million shares? Delayed trade from 8am on Monday. £130,000 worth!
I just found a company called Base Resources Limited that have a mineral sands resource with an NPV of over $600 million. Their current market cap is £150 million. Lets hope that we can achieve a similar MC when the deal is done! 40 - 50p a share would make me very happy.
Does anyone have any thoughts as to why Scott Richardson Brown would resign at such a critical point in the negotiations? I noticed that he is a non executive director at African Battery Metals (now Power Metal Resources) and that recently the directors have been buying lots of shares. Does this have anything to do with a deal for Pathfinder? Just speculating....
In reality it's probably just super safe Sareum telling the market that they don't have a leaky ship and that no truly positive news has got out!
Lets hope they are just covering their backsides before the big announcement!
I totally agree with Potnak. I've been invested in some really nasty companies where the BODs have completely deceived the shareholders. Companies such as VAST, CTAG, AFPO, RLH, KIBO to name but a few. Luckily with most of them I managed to get out before the big crashes. I think SAR is different too. Tim is a scientist and the finance side is secondary. I hope we are under an NDA and that a large pharma is currently doing due diligence on Sareum. Maybe this would explain the very cheap PR that we are currently getting. i.e the odd tweet or interview on Proactive. If we're lucky maybe the new NEDs are being paid for by the company doing the due diligence! I hope a total buyout is coming our way soon. Fingers crossed.
I disagree Cereus. If you're truly a brilliant pioneer, inventor and entrepreneur you would not want to work for a large company. If you work for a large organization you quickly become 'just another minion in a huge organization. I think we are hoping Tim and his crew are great at what they do and passionate about it. They have achieved amazing things already for such a tiny company and have proved that the SKIL platform works pretty well. I think Sareum is a very different company to VAL.