RE: Greenwood Capital Partners note (29 pages!) *very bullish*3 Sep 2025 19:32
Pepas – a cash machine in the making -
Whilst at an early stage, unique attributes and the simplicity of Pepas provide confidence to start mulling conceptual development scenarios. We have calculated a conceptual mineral inventory of 3Mt at 4g/t Au for 385koz. We model a low capex (US$15m), 29kozpa operation over a 13-year LOM generating an NPV10% for Pepas of US$245m with a 192% IRR at spot gold. High-grade, near surface ounces drive low AISC of c.US$1,000/oz. Upside to higher gold prices is compelling and we see good scope for further discovery and expansion
Pepas just the beginning -
Orosur has many other fish to fry: Pepas North (a few 100m to the north) has even more impressive surface geochem but only 3 holes have been drilled so far. APTA, with 38,000m of historical drilling and intercepts such as 40m at 14.09g/t Au could be moved to resource status with minimal drilling. Soil sampling has recommenced at El Cedro which offers large-scale CuAu porphyry potential which in time may be of interest to majors, in our view. Over in Argentina, Orosur has a 560km2 footprint in Argentina’s Deseado Massif at the El Pantano Au-Ag project (pathway to 100% ownership) - early-stage blue sky but located between Newmont’s Cerro Negro and AngloGold’s Cerro Vanguardia mines. Maiden drilling is set to kick off in October
Valuation -
We initiate with a near-term target price of 28p/sh (C$0.51) based on our conceptual Pepas NPV (0.4x multiple, US$2,800/oz gold) and sum of the parts valuation. This implies a return of 100% to current target but we see considerable scope for further value accretion at higher gold prices and upon de-risking as development scenarios play out with a maiden MRE due. Our valuation at 1x NAV would be 50p/sh. Run at spot gold, this becomes 33p/sh (0.4x NAV) or 64p/sh (at 1x NAV). We will revisit our target price as development clarity emerges, and we expect further price gains as discovery momentum builds for one of the most exciting gold exploration stories in the sector
After years of work, the stars are aligning for Orosur with a tangible near-term production project and a plethora of exciting exploration opportunities in two prolific gold districts.
***THAT'S JUST PAGE ONE, THERE'S 29 PAGES!!!!***