TIN16 Jan 2019 07:52
In terms of demand, there are “favorable demand prospects stemming from the metal’s usability in new technologies, such as electric vehicles (EVs), robotics and renewable energy,” Stanapedis said.
In fact, EVs could be a big deal for tin. Currently graphite is the main anode material used in lithium-ion batteries, but it is believed that tin could act as a more efficient material for longer-distance batteries, with demand picking up from 2025 onwards, according to the International Tin Association (ITA).
To add to that, limited tin supply, partly due to expected output cuts across some of the major tin producers, “should more than offset any downward pressures to prices due to ongoing global trade tensions and a slowdown in the Chinese economy,” Stanapedis added.
Meanwhile, ITA analyst Tom Mulqueen believes the tin use outlook is weaker for 2018.
“[That’s] due to a combination of factors including escalating trade tensions and macroeconomic developments, especially in China where other factors are hindering growth. However in other regions growth looks more positive, notably in solder,” he said.
The ITA forecasts that the tin market will be in a supply deficit to the tune of 7,500 tonnes in 2018, while global usage growth is expected drop from 4 percent in 2018 to flat in 2019.
Looking ahead, the tin price is likely to remain stable throughout 2019, picking up to around US$22,000 per tonne towards 2022, Mulqueen said.
Meanwhile, panelists polled by FocusEconomics estimate the average tin price for 2019 will be US$20,268. The most bearish forecast comes from Euromonitor, which is calling for a price of US$18,761; meanwhile, Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) is the most bullish with a forecast of US$22,046.
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