mcb29 Nov 2012 21:19
A share price rebound since June presents risk-averse investors with an opportunity to sell McBride (MCB), the Europe-focused provider of private-label household and personal care products. Given the £244 million cap's meaningful exposure to oil-derived inputs, volatility in the Middle East is a concern, since the lag in recovering prices means risks to forecasts are significant. Last month (15 October), McBride received forecast downgrades after warning first-half and full-year profits would be impacted by £2 million due to a faster-than-expected decline in its contract manufacturing business. Whilst the wind-down of this business had already been flagged, weakening consumer demand for the relevant branded products has accelerated the process and February's first half numbers won't make pretty reading. On the positive side, McBride is now focused on growing its Private Label business in the second half and beyond. Private Label is gaining market share at the expense of brands, especially in Western Europe, as hard-pressed consumers increasingly seek value and retailers recognise the way in which quality own labels can help them differentiate their offerings. Combined with various self-help measures, the shower gel-to-shampoo supplier's margins and profits are on an upwards trajectory and McBride expects to see improving sales trends in the second half as new private label contracts make an impact. For the year to June, Investec Securities' Nicola Mallard, with a buy recommendation and 145p price target, has pencilled in further improvement in adjusted taxable profits to £27.5 million (2012: £23.7 million), 15.5% growth in earnings to 11.2p (2012: 9.7p) and a return to dividend growth.