EVR22 Sep 2013 10:53
Roman Abramovich's Evraz (EVR), in common with fellow Russian steelmaker Severstal, has endured a tough trading environment over the past year, mirrored by a halving of the share price over the period. During the first quarter, we thought that the group's fortunes were set to improve on the back of early signs of recovery in Russian industrial demand. In the event, this recovery proved to be illusory, and with a $7bn (£4.4bn) debt overhang and constraints on free cash flow, the shares could drift lower on negative valuations - even from the current depressed rating.
A plunge in steel prices and a consequential share price slump resulted in Evraz being relegated from the FTSE 100 midway through June. This effectively removed any influence of blue-chip tracker funds, in addition to clouding market sentiment. Evraz is one of several Russian/CIS companies that have made their way onto the UK benchmark index, only to attract criticism due to a narrow free float - about one-quarter of the shares - and the undue influence of majority shareholders, although it certainly isn't in the same bracket as the likes of ENRC in terms of its reputation for corporate governance.
Admittedly, shares in Evraz rallied on release of its recent half-year report, despite the fact that cash profits were down by a fifth to $939m and a decision was made to can the half-year dividend. The group felt that a payout was unjustified given that the half-year loss per share had more than doubled to 7¢. The reallocated funds will help to cover the group's $1.6bn short-term debt. The good news for shareholders is that the group largely managed to keep a lid on costs through the period, while reducing capital expenditure by 12.9 per cent to $492m.
However, it's unlikely that the group will be able to free up its cash inflows despite progress in trimming costs. Analysts are now predicting that Evraz may be forced to tap the market again if it chooses to pay down borrowings, or if it decides to resume dividend payments through this year and next. Evraz certainly has form in this regard. In 2009, it issued shares and convertible bonds to bolster its balance sheet, when debt levels were broadly comparable. The implied multiple of cash profits to net debt now stands at 3.75 - just shy of the level that normally sets alarm bells ringing. At least Evraz's debt existing covenants are largely administered by state-controlled entities, so presumably there's a degree of leeway on offer. (The covenants are breached when net debt exceeds cash profits by a multiple of three or more).