LSE Share Cast comment16 Apr 2018 14:12
ShareCast News) - With 10% of Whitbread shares now in activist investor hands following the emergence of Elliott Advisers, analysts from Credit Suisse, Stifel and Numis offered varying opinions on how much value can come from breaking-up of the Costa Coffee and Premier Inns owner.
Elliott has confirmed that is has amassed a near-6% stake which together with Sachem Head, which revealed its 3%-plus sake in December, means roughly 10% of the shares are held by activists.
Sachem has reportedly been pushing for the separation of the property from the hotel assets, a re-leveraging of the balance sheet, and the separation or sale of Costa, while Elliottt is said to just be pursuing a spin-off of Costa rather than "any other financial engineering".
Whitbread shares were up 6% to 4,180p as midday approached on Monday.
Credit Suisse said it saw a 26% potential upside to 4,950p as the addition of Elliott as the group's largest shareholder "will increase the likelihood of break-up".
The Swiss bank believes there is "much wider shareholder support for change" and that a split of Premier Inn and Costa "makes sense", with the current price "inconsistent" with the long term competitive advantages of each business and a sum-of-the-parts valuation that implies 40% potential upside.
January's update showed that current trading isn't easy, while the combined corporate agenda is "very full", with Costa facing structural challenges from its high street focus and both business striving for material UK space growth, with international aspirations, cost inflation pressures and management's saving plan alongside Costa's wide range of operational initiatives to improve positioning.
If management want to fight the break-up, Credit Suisse said "other levers could be pulled", said CS, noting Whitbread's �5.4bn of freehold property, potential for restructuring the low-return pub restaurant business and for extending the efficiency mindset and the �150m cost saving target.
Morgan Stanley's take was that the while the reported push for a Costa demerger is "likely leading to further speculation" that "should support the shares", as Costa is only 25% of profit/EV, "investors need to believe in more for outsized returns".
A demerger of Costa "could remove the risk the business is sold too cheaply" amid the turnaround and "seems relatively lower risk" versus a disposal of hotel real estate that "risks taking on more expensive long-term leases, losing control of the asset/product, and reducing investment opportunities" or a disposal of the pub restaurants that "risks dis-synergies given nearly all are co-located adjacent to a Premier Inn".
Analysts at Numis noted that the �3bn of extra value perceived by Elliott would be equivalent to 1650p per share or a 3.5x EBITDA for the whole group.
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