Member Info for Jammysparrow

Think they won it last year B&S, not announced this year's winners yet on the website. Their all listed on the Finalists page.

Let's hope there's a nice order that hasn't been announced pending the awards later today.

Agreed, I think that across the board investors didn't properly factor in the costs of a hashrate arms race and the subsequent borrowing/dilution/hodl reduction. But we have covered that point a gazillion times.

However, there is no significant fundamental changes between the relative positions of the big miners which can account for ARB's poor performance in the past couple of months. So the SP is being depressed by poor sentiment from

a. the IPO price (which ultimately has not diluted us more than expected currently, the same number of shares were issued. It has however left us several $10m's short of what we were hoping to raise.)
b. failure to deliver extra hashrate to timescales (not a problem unique to Argo)
c. Boatman FUD (which had a negative impact before but ultimately wore off and will be proven wrong if plans are delivered)

That's why I believe the drop is overdone.

But happy to be proven wrong. Maybe we're just ahead of the (downward) curve and all the other miners will follow ;)

FP

I agree with you to a degree. Clearly there is crypto risk layered with company execution risk.

But one person's risk is another's opportunity.

Earlier in the year the sp was pumping because all anyone saw was opportunity. As things have progressed it's become clearer that there are some inherent risks in delivering that.

But the question is are people now factoring in too much execution risk to the share price.

In retrospect people factored in too much opportunity at £3. PW recognised this and saw it as a sell. To be fair, I don't blame him - he shouldn't be precluded from selling shares when PIs punp it. Though that's easier to say when you didn't buy at that price.

For me, this has now swung the other way and risk sentiment is being overdone. So for me it's a buy at this level

Amazing, all that time to get it wrong

Why did you finish a statement with a question mark?

To give him his due, he has contributed to creating an unusually jovial atmosphere on here when we're almost 10% down

Tiger's first day at the investment bank.

"So Tiger, what's your investment strategy?"
"If its the top riser, I'll buy $hitloads of it."
"Okay, when will you sell?"
"When it's the top loser."
"Okay Tiger, I think we have a position available in our 'ex investment banker' department"
"What do I do there?"
"Well, to start, mine is white with two sugars"
.........

We always have c $1m higher operating costs in H2 - I would guess due to one-off adjustments at year end. This normally takes us from a profit in H1 to a loss for the year. Operating profit in H1 was also flattered by the inclusion of the government grant income so the comparison of $721k to $103k is a little misleading.

I'd prefer to look at GP figures if we were comparing the two halves - H2 GP was around 20% higher than H1.

As the operating costs are relatively fixed, this increase could result in some excellent figures for H1 in this year - potentially cracking $1m

I always try to make sure I get full market value for my chips even from my mates.
I would say around about 4p per chip.
Sometimes they take the really big one with a nice sprinkling of salt and vinegar and I feel a bit taken advantage of.

...and EUA continues not to perform as expected eh? Shame. Down more than 15% from your buy I reckon. But definitely going to bounce right back up. Because you're a professional.

Wonderfi also announced new chair last week with links to galaxy digital.

Feels like argo are trying to position themselves at the centre of an exciting collaboration with a big facility.

I personally find it quite exciting that they could be trying to pull together all these disparate parts to make something big.

I don't think PW has yet fully disclosed the strategic goals which will be achieved with these different collaborations but I think it could be big.

Could be worse I guess.

Could have listened to ade and be holding eua today.....

Couple of mentions of ETH in there. Does anyone know how heavily involved in that area we are? Can't recall whether it has been mentioned particularly in any of the presentations previously?

Think it's worth picking up on this again.

All the Fudders are focussing on the funding for building out the whole of Helios but let's say PW turned round tomorrow and declared an equity raise and plans to just get to where MARA are forecast to be next year (13.3eh).

I figure we need 115,000 S19s to get to 13.3eh (incl those already announced). Say they cost $8k/machine (I think it could be less than this given other recent purchase prices but being conservative). Funds already raised are sufficient to complete the building work so we would need to raise $920m.

Say we do an equity raise at a discount of 10% - this would add circa $1bn to our Mcap giving us a new Mcap of c. £1.82bn.

Last month Mara Hodled 7,453 BTC and we Hodled 2,128 BTC. They mined 418 BTC and we mined 167 BTC (difference = 251 BTC). So in 12 month's time their Hodl could reasonably be 9,000 greater than ours.

Let's say Btc is $150k in 12 months time and the respective Mcaps of the two increase proportionately. Then

ARB Mcap = $1.82bn x 150/65 = $4.2bn
MARA Mcap = $6.3bn x 150/65 = $14.5bn - 9,000 x $150k (to reduce by additional Hodl) = approx $13bn

Lots of assumptions but I have tried to err on the conservative side. And I accept that there is an inherent risk in Argo where plans are less clear and advanced than Mara but even pricing that in surely we would still be significantly undervalued with a Mcap approximately 1/3 of Mara after raising the equity to build out.

So I don't buy the equity raise sky falling down angle.

https://www.linkedin.com/mwlite/in/anthony-tony-coyle-cfa-3a618914

Didn't we order previously through Core Scientific.
That would be the mechanism for negotiating a better price and it may well be that Core Scientific don't wish to reveal the prices paid rather than bitmain.

Fancy bitty could break out north today too. In an ascending wedge over the last 24 hours. Think we'll see a move back to $64k area before heading into the weekend. All bodes well for next week

BTC's like an artisan loaf. Gets knocked back and then stick it in the proving drawer to see a nice rise.

Was at 17.2 in pre-market at time of writing.

Little pullback before market opens. No stress :)