Member Info for jamesmaggs

Hi bud, good to see you on today's falling knife lol. Hope you're well?

Regarding the divvy,I've always factored in a risk as I would for any potential 'value trap' of any company paying a div that looks too good to be true but I've doubled up here on a small existing holding with a contrarian view that if the dividend is restored next period then the SP will be significantly higher in anticipation and at that point the yield on my new 'average' will be returning a significantly higher return on capital. Having said that if there's a decent bounce on oversold territory I'll sell the extras with a shorter view probably. All depends on the risk profile and timeline.

Disappointing drop after it looked like we were going to bounce over the ex div amount. Still positive and today's drop all down to a major holder looking to reduce a sizeable stake which clearly hadn't helped but beyond that I can't see anything has changed in the business itself or the market for that matter aside from the fact myself and everyone I've heard from have had a manic week. GLA

It gives a veneer of confidence that they've looked at the books and are advising clients accordingly agreed. I've been caught on the wrong side of such ratings in the past but if you combine with all the other info out there plus own gut feeling and patience it helps. Glad to see the yield factor in play as that's always a consideration on my bluechip investments and being in the game myself have confidence to be more patient with this one. For what it's worth I think the drop is over cooked much like the post IPO rise was but I fear I may be repeating myself on that thought lol!!

Added more today ahead of the div and special tomorrow. The indicative yield and projected numbers admittedly from the house broker looking more like an income share(potentially). Instis moving out/in confuses the direction as ever. Market goes quiet during school holidays,perking up now in time for the 'get in before Xmas' trade as well as the usual reasons. Instructions coming in and as mentioned prior,irrespective of the fact the London prices have always and will always be bonkers,commission income plus spin offs better when the perception of the market direction isn't going bonkers! Another anomaly about the London market is the way different areas seem to open up within London as they're up and coming which again creates movement which in turn creates fee income. GLA

Alas I've been privy to the sounds of estate agents dying out for three decades mate,seen many come and go and I've personally benefitted in my business from the various organisations,including supermarkets who vowed to put us out of business closing down as they don't understand the niche nature of the business and can't grasp the fact it is and always will be a cottage industry. I worked in London in the '80's when the likes of Halifax and a multitude of insurance companies were full of their systems that would revolutionise the way houses were sold by creating one stop shopping and they keep coming back for more every few years. Internet based agencies undercutting don't work either and 90% of private sales fall through so I fear you might be stuck with us for a tad longer. Here, it's really simple, 4 quid too high/two and a half quid too low???? No one can predict what will happen on any share price but I'd say its a reasonable punt. GLA

Good points. As ever it's the great unknown as to what happens next but worth noting this lot are debt free so if we're talking recovery it's from a sounder base than most I know. Also worth noting is that agents are quick to react and regroup to any change in market conditions,love is or hate is but our own profitability will always come first!!

Do you think this SP should be 250,400,somewhere in the middle or higher/lower and on what basis? I'm somewhere in the middle...

This isn't about whether the house prices in London are over-cooked,it's about whether a listed company has overshot a sentiment driven rise and fall and whether the share price will do either!

Looks to me like the SP got ahead of itself and has now been sentiment driven down on the misconception that estate agents only make decent profits on a rising market. London has always had a disconnect with reality,both on prices and rents and I can't see that changing. The three largest overheads are staff,advertising and premises and I don't see any changes there. It's all about fee income and spin offs secondary and in my experience vendors are more willing to pay decent fees and negotiate and reneg post survey etc when the perception isn't a rising market. Come and go agents proliferate in a 'good' market and upset the charging structure of established agents whose fees are dragged down. As long as established agents don't make the cardinal sin of expanding ahead of growth then irrespective of the prices going north/south or flatlining then I don't see a fundamental problem here. My view is somewhere in the middle of what seems to be a wide range on SP since the IPO plus a small divvy and special to accompany so I'm a buyer here. GLA

I don't know why they bother frankly,if I based my investment decisions on broker forecasts.......!!

Good to see director buying into recovery here plus div maintained..GLA

You're welcome.GLA

Thanks for the background on our notifiable holder there. Cracking finish here on an otherwise red day. BlueDealer,other high divs worth a look REDD house broker projecting 4.6p next year and Woodford's got a load. BRIT yet to announce but the IC recently mentioned 34.7p projected,small float,GLIF 1.25p a quarter just ex this week,beyond that plenty of bluechips that need no introduction looking good income-wise. GLA...

Interesting rise just before close on smallish volume after notifiable trades earlier looking smack in the middle of the spread at that time unless late reported,never seen volume like that before so I guess we'll see a holdings RNS in the next day or so. Hopefully a recovery underway or better news awaits,at least something's happening anyway! GLA

Sunday share tips: Debenhams, Johnston Press, Carpetright LATEST NEWSSHARECAST June 22, 2014 - No comments 0 (0 votes) Steer clear of shares in Debenhams, Questor advised in the Sunday Telegraph. There was no repeat of the December 31st profit warning when the department store group published its trading statement on June 20th. Trading was in line with expectations. But Debenhams has damaged its brand by repeatedly cutting prices. Opening up stores to Sports Direct concessions looks confused. Add in the company’s high debts and the shares are best avoided. Johnston Press’s prospects may not be as grim as its battered share price suggests, Danny Fortson said in his Inside the City column. The Sunday Times tipster said the regional newspaper publisher’s recent fundraising was backed by canny investors including Malaysian billionaire Ananda Krishnan and BSkyB. Johnston sales staff will sell Sky’s ad slots to local businesses. Chief Executive Ashley Highfield has a credible plan for the company in the digital age and Johnston is a ‘decent punt’ for those with strong constitutions. Hold shares of Carpetright, Danny Fortson said in the Sunday Times. In his Inside the City column, Fortson said the departure of founder Lord Harris, leaving Carpetright with newcomer Chief Executive Wilf Walsh, made it an unknown quantity. The shares have fallen as Carpetright has issued three profit warnings and its business in the Netherlands remains a problem. The revival in the UK property market has failed to feed through to Carpetright’s business as hoped. The shareholder register is highly concentrated with room for greater share price disruption if a big investor becomes disaffected.

You need to check with your broker but in my experience in general terms if you don't take up the rights they will lapse and that being the case you suffer a worse dilution and miss the opportunity to participate in 'averaging down' although I can't remember the terms and expiry dates on this one now.

Positive end to the day and a lot of trades today,900 odd?!!

They look like late reported or maybe something to do with the placing but at least there's some liquidity! Yes I'm in and have been before,as ever the great unknown,different circumstances this time see what happens. Haven't had trinity since they were last in the 30's.....regret selling them at that time even though I got them about 26 I'll tell you!! It's a popular view that the locals are endangered but I work in an industry typical of the here/now digital age(property sales) but bizarrely everyone still reads the papers and wants to be in them so along with announcements and local news I still think there's a bit of mileage in this old girl yet,very longterm I'm not convinced but the next five years maybe but by then anything could have happened to the industry and the titles within it. I'll keep an eye out on TNI and good luck with your share activities too.

Interesting late reported ones showing up...views?