Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
GFD - not sure how the respond to that!
As I said, I’m absolutely not a mining expert so merely making assumptions that this project would take some time, merely due to the size of the area involved?
We all want this to be sold for full proven value, that is an absolute given. As you said earlier, nobody is certain whether Flanks will be proven prior to sale and this transaction is extremely complicated. Hopefully we will hear the news we are all waiting for on Monday, if not very soon - fingers crossed! Anyway back to the Lions game…. ATB
Hi Lancer - I am aware of the discussions on both opinions, both here and on Telegram. There is generally a split of opinion on Telegram around the proving up of MT Flanks and I have been personally been back and for and around in circles on this myself many many times, listening to both sides of the coin.
The vast majority of posters over there and on this BB seem to think the Flanks will be proven to JORC standards. Like you, I am currently leaning towards this not being the case as surely this would take a very long time to complete.
I take your point regarding the exploration licence. If as you suggest a deal is very close, do you think this would be just for the 1.9moz at MT or an MT plus Flanks sale based on a much lower percentage for the unproven element?
GFD - thanks for thre response. I agree that the financials by their nature are out of date. However from the notes in the recent accounts (June sign off):
"Expenditure at Monchetundra has been modest through 2020 and thus far in 2021."
So this would take us up to the date the Directors signed off the audited accounts.
Obviously not a mining expert, but the Flanks area is huge and I would expect proving up these resources to be very costly This was my point really. Although I would love to be completely wrong, it does appear on the face of it that the MT flanks are not currently being proven up, although there is plenty of historical data available for the potential buyer's geology teams to pour over. Agreeing a value on these inferred resources may be the sticking point which is causing this to rumble on. Just my musings....
@roger - I’m not sure there will be a JORC resource update for MT flanks prior to sale. The latest accounts signed off in June 2021 reported that there had only been a moderate amount of spend at MT.
Be interesting what Mac and others thoughts are in this area?
Just based purely on current guidance for H2, current V prices and cost guidance, we should be marginally profitable for 2021 if V prices remain at current level through H2.
Putting H1 to one side and looking at a ROLLING 12 month forecast from July 2021, based on the numbers provided, expected post tax profit would be in the region of £14million. This does not take into account any increase in production rate in H1 2022 when Vanchem kiln 3 is due to be contributing to Group profit.
Therefore on a simplistic valuation at current V prices using a forward PE ratio of 10, gives a valuation of approximately £140m. This is not far from where we sit today.
Yes we should hopefully see further cost reduction into next year and increased production, but it could be argued that this is where the Market sees the current valuation.
That being said, positive news on VRFB contracts (how long have we been saying that!) or a significant push north in V prices towards $60 and beyond would definitely light a fire under the share price.
Frustrating as it is for all of us, this is where we currently are and for those of us who believe in the Company, IMO patience will be rewarded.
Just checked in here for the first time in a while.
The EM investor Twitter account has been previously verified over on Telegram a number of times and evidence provided in terms of screenshots of threads which confirmed his identity.
Hope that helps.
Yes invariably the price falls below the placing price, but surprised at the notion that they would sell at a loss to look for other opportunities tbh. That makes little sense to me.
Anyway, I’ve been in and out of here last three years, but like you I think everything is now coming together and will be looking to add further on any weakness.
“as I said in my placees post below, the MM are currently pressuring the Ruperts Tristans and Myles of the world to dump their 6p placing shares. Once they give up on that the SP can rise.”
FB - why would you/MM’s expect the Myles’ of this world to dump their shares at a loss below the placing price??
Oh dear - that’s some trading strategy you got going there TheeDuke.
Also in future probably not a good idea to announce the sale on the BB before you sell, at least not if you want to maximise the selling price. Oh boy….
Sanchez- I am pretty much aligned with a lot of what you say and invariably tick up your posts. I have seen a definite shift in your narrative over the last 6 months. If you don’t mind me asking though, if Largo are in your opinion doing everything so so much better than us, why don’t you move your investment into LGO?
I’m not being critical or trying to pick a fight, but why do you remain what appears to be all in on BMN?
Knuttie- really don’t understand your comment. The Company can only control what goes on at the workplace with the measures they have put in place. What goes on outside the gates is totally uncontrollable.
There is nothing here to suggest an outbreak within the business. Production unaffected also. What is it exactly that you expected to hear?
Personally I am very happy with the contents of this RNS, which is very upbeat IMO.
I’m in BMN too which has a few complexities, but I like the simplicity of the business model here, building production steadily and expanding in a phased approach. There’s still not much interest in here yet but with the recent raise at 6p this looks good value and a potential multi bagger from this point.
https://www.news24.com/citypress/Business/north-west-mine-accused-of-fronting-20210716
Behind a paywall, but potentially more negative press?
“Bushveld Vametco Holdings is being investigated following allegations of possible fronting. City Press has reliably learnt that land owners in Brits, North West, lodged a complaint with the Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) Commission against the company on Tuesday”