The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Thanks for post below, any observations on my posts regarding CLP at all? Thanks in advance!
Spud FYI continued. A failed Mediapolis sale implies 66% upside, our base case valuation for a successful outcome implies upside of 137%, while a fair value sale for Mediapolis offers 427% upside. If we weight these outcomes on a 45%-45%-10% basis respectively, we come to an expected per share NAV value of 5.43p, or 134% expected return.
With the delay of the court hearing regarding the Mediapolis asset’s debt restructure proposal, now would seem an appropriate time to thoroughly assess the value of Clear Leisure’s portfolio of assets. We find that there does appear to be a very good opportunity for upside here, with a compelling base case 100% return, conditional on a favourable court outcome. For more information on the Mediapolis restructure, click here for a summary of the events leading up to just before the deferral of the hearing from 21st March to 11th April. Our approach was as follows: For Mediapolis we took the base case €20m cash offer deal and accounted for the debt post restructuring. We took Ondaland and SoSushi’s most recent full year EBITDA figures (as at 31st December 2012) and applied appropriate EBITDA multiples to reach a valuation for each asset Ondaland’s 13.5x multiple is drawn from Merlin Entertainments’ valuation as at IPO. Given that they share the same sector we felt this was an appropriate comparable. SoSushi’s 12x multiple was drawn from the recent restaurants sale by Byron Burger Co., which transacted at this multiple. Again, we feel they are comparable due to the same sector and similar brand quality associated with each. Note, the Ondaland stake % is found by taking the 51% stake that CLP has in Sipiem, which, in turn holds 66% of Ondaland. Thus, 0.51×0.66 = 0.3366. We did not include the net trade receivable figure (just over €1m) as we suspect this is held within the ORH subsidiary which is in the process of liquidation. We reiterate that this assumes that the Mediapolis asset is sold for €20m and the restructure goes ahead. However, in the event of a liquidation of Mediapolis (which will occur if the restructure is rejected by the court) then the debt associated with Mediapolis is wiped off along with the €20m value. Thus we come to a slightly lower NAV figure of £7.4m, or 3.86p per share. On the current share price (2.32p) this still offers a 40% discount to NAV. Conclusions If the Mediapolis asset sale goes through successfully at €20m though, we come to a very attractive NAV figure of 5.49p per share, offering 137% on the share price. Further, if management can leverage the situation to their advantage (given the restructure passes successfully through the courts) and utilize the equity credit line for liquidity purposes then there will be no pressure for a quick sale process for the Company. Thus, CLP could engage with a number of interested parties as well as the two current bidders to attain a more competitive figure. It was valued at €35.6m independently after all. If we hypothesize that this figure is achieved and use it in our analysis above we come to a NAV of 12.23p per share, more than 5 times the current market cap.This is a tremendous proposition and is not so ludicrous to suppose that it has a chance of occurring. A failed M
Spud, I've listed all types of trades FYI; TRADE TYPES The LSE has several different types of trade and each one is identified by a letter. Coding system below is a list of these codes and a definition of their meaning: Code Definition O Ordinary trade - A standard type of trade with normal settlement date traded through the Market Makers. B Broker to Broker Trade. A transaction between two broker firms. EU Euro Automated Trade ER Euro Trades K Block Trade - A transaction utilizing the block trade facility. L Late Trade - when a trade is reported to the Stock Exchange some time after it has been executed it is known as a Late Trade. LC Late trade correction. M Market Maker to Market Maker. As the name suggests this is a transaction between two Market Makers who are registered in the security which is being traded. N Non Protected Portfolio. This is normally a transaction of a number of stocks dealt with by one market maker at an agreed discount to the market price. NM Not To Mark. In some cases the Exchange can grant permission for non publication. This is known as a Not to Mark. NR Non Risk (SEATS). As the name suggests this is a non risk transaction. P Protected Portfolio Transaction. R Risk less Principal transaction at a different price RO Result of Option. A transaction which resulted for the exercise of an option RT Risk Trade. (SEATS) A risk transaction. ST SEAQ Trade. This is used for the single uncrossing trade. Gives details of the total executed volume and uncrossing price as a result of a SEAQ auction. SW Stock Swap. Transaction comprised in a stock swap or stock switch UT Uncrossing Trade. This is used for the single uncrossing trade, detailing the total executed volume and uncrossing price as a result of a SETS auction. X Cross at the same price. AT An automated trade generated by the SETS system through the order book. (Level 2). PA a protected transaction at the time that protection is applied. PC Post Contra. When the contra trade is not on the trade date this is used to report it. T If reporting a protected transaction. WN Worked Principle Transaction. When a member firm enters into a worked principle agreement for a single security this is used to notify the Exchange. TS Test Security. Used when testing trade reporting. WT Worked Principle Trade. CT Contra Trade. Used to publish a contra trade in previously automatically executed trade through the order book. AI Automated input facility. Used when a member firm has disabled its automated input facility in response to a request from the Exchange. PN Worked principle Portfolio Notification. VW volume Weighted Average Price RC Regulatory Conformance. BC Bargain Condition. Hope this helps.
Investors are too negative about Caracal Energy’s ann ounced merger with Transglobe, Danny Fortson wrote in the Sunday Times. Caracal operates in Chad while Transglobe’s is in Egypt. Investors should welcome the spreading of risk as well as the combined company’s growth opportunities but the shares have fallen 15% since the announcement. Sellers think Caracal boss Gary Guidry has diluted them when he should have increased production and waited for Caracal to be bought. But bank finance would have been costly for a company so exposed to the corrupt Chad regime. The Transglobe deal makes Caracal less risky. More compelling reason to buy and wait.
A good way of driving chargeable services!!
He has a ban until Tuesday, supplying level 2 data.
1 share purchase, watch this space next week!
That's a bit harsh matey, Blowster cant be all that bad, he's here with us, in this little cracker!!
Glad to hear it mate. MM games as always - smoke & mirrors. Like you say, news pipe looks positive, onwards and upwards with this company...
FYI - My BUY is listed as a sell, don't be fooled my friend!
Sage - Although were not spiking in huge percentage terms, this as a general trend will continue North on cash online in my view. Patience is key as ever my friend. Hold tight - enjoy the ride!!
Hmmm, when will the market wake up and realise what we have here, crazy times indeed!
News around the corner, so lets all be patient. BTW, buys showing clearly as sells on here, as my purchase today indicates...GLA
Home Retail Group, the UK's leading home and general merchandise retailer, is required for the financial year just ended to report its financial results for the 53-week statutory period ended 3 March 2012. However, we believe that the proforma 52-week results better reflect the underlying performance of the Group and so all references to financial performance in respect of the income statement, cash flow and business reviews are stated on a proforma 52-week basis to 25 February 2012 unless specified otherwise. OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS Ongoing investment initiatives in both businesses to maintain leadership in multi-channel retailing: Argos multi-channel sales penetration increased to 48% of total sales with online Check & Reserve still the fastest growing channel Argos is the second largest internet retailer in the UK with over 430 million site visits Argos mobile shopping has grown threefold to represent 6% of total sales by year-end Homebase multi-channel sales penetration increased to 4% of total sales Ongoing development and growth in own-brand and exclusive product strategies in both businesses Argos store refurbishment continues to deliver sales uplifts ahead of plan Extension of Argos online product offering Third consecutive year of market share gains at Homebase Improved ranges across Homebase big ticket categories with award winning installation services Acquired the exclusive use of the Habitat UK brand; introduction of Habitat product into both Argos and Homebase businesses during 2012 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Sales down 6% to £5,492m Cash gross margin down 7% to £2,027m Robust management of costs with operating and distribution costs broadly flat at £1,930m, with the impact of both underlying cost inflation pressures and the investment in new initiatives having been offset by further costs savings Benchmark operating profit1 down 61% to £98m; Group operating margin of 1.8% Benchmark profit before tax2 down 60% to £102m Basic benchmark earnings per share3 down 59% to 8.7p Closing net cash position at 25 February 2012 of £181m Full-year dividend of 4.7p, no final dividend recommended For the 53 weeks to 3 March 2012, sales down 5% to £5,583m and benchmark profit before tax2 down 54% to £116m. Reported profit before tax of £104m. Reported basic earnings per share of 9.1p. Closing net cash position at 3 March 2012 of £194m. The 53rd week contributed £14m of additional benchmark profit before tax2 and £13m of additional cash Oliver Stocken, Chairman of Home Retail Group, commented: "While the Group's performance in the short term cannot be immune from the economic environment, we continue to focus on its strategic advantages to ensure that it will be well positioned for the economic recovery over the long term. Against this economic backdrop, the Board has decided not to recommend a final dividend this year and therefore the full-year dividend is repr
Thank you, Sound, concise detail contained, with objectivity, great thread - how refreshing from the dribble viewed elsewhere...! Have a good weekend...