Courtesy advfn15 Jun 2026 20:33
Nice bit of analysis
Here it is. ....
... ..., but onto Ocado.... I'll anchor this in Ocado's July 2025 half-year results first, then layer in the later confirmed events, M&S/ORL performance, Kroger/Sobeys compensation, cost savings, Asda, and cash-flow guidance — so the comparison is grounded rather than just hopeful. Its what I work to and with.
Based on the July 2025 half-year results and everything confirmed since, I would seriously expect the 2026 results to look better strategically, even if some reported FY26 figures are messy because of Kroger/Sobeys closures and restructuring.
Ocado's July 2025 half-year numbers were already showing momentum: group revenue was reported up 13.2% to £674m, adjusted EBITDA up 76.5% to £91.8m, and Technology Solutions EBITDA more than doubled to £72.8m. Ocado also said then that its core priority remained turning cash-flow positive in FY26.
Since then, the picture has IMPROVED further in several important ways. Ocado's FY25 results said it remained "on track" to turn cash-flow positive during FY26 and deliver full-year cash generation in FY27. The Asda RNS then repeated that same point: cash-flow positive during H2 FY26, full-year positive in FY27.
The bear point is that Kroger/Sobeys closures reduce FY26 fee income. That is real. But Ocado received substantial compensation from Kroger, with a $350m payment reflecting lost future capacity fees (Essentially 7 years fees in advance), while Ocado maintained its cash-flow-positive target.
So my expectation is:
Better than July 2025 on cash-flow credibility, platform validation and strategic outlook. Possibly mixed on headline FY26 revenue/EBITDA because closures distort comparisons.
The big difference now is Asda. That does not materially change FY26 numbers, but it validates the evolved model and strengthens confidence in FY27 onwards. Reuters also reported JPMorgan estimating around £20m incremental EBITDA from Asda from 2027.
The next results may not be "clean", but they should be far more supportive of the long-term bull case than the market currently prices. And last year we watched it jump from £2.00 ish to £4.00ish, but the results this time around are crucially better.... The register is now also so much tighter ... We are not just going to be ok, with this, we will be rejoicing... Sure I would like it higher than where we are, but the big boys hold their stakes already... what is capping the SP now is the leftovers..
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