RE: M Partners Capital LLC16 Apr 2025 12:21
Surin, treating this exactly like a gambling market where price is very efficient, A Sidara takeover would be trading at 1.58 which has an implied probability of 63.5% , the other side is bankruptcy/Wood going to zero, which is 36.5%
ofcourse this assumes
1. share price at moment is very accurate ( which its likely not to be )
2. A sidara takeover or bankruptcy are the only 2 outcomes, which obviously isnt true