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Haha quite the opposite Neil. I've been here a long long time, this is the best things have ever looked and ironically the value is as low as it's ever been.
What I'm saying is that if there has been no dilution and it was massive, then a comparison of the sp months ago would be fair, but it's not. What was the mcap when the price was 27p?
You don't need to look at the price every second unless you are trading this, which is fine if anyone is.
If they have found commercial helium and hydrogen then we will be many multiples of where we are now. Put your money in and wait for your chosen exit price/top slice, don't get greedy!
There will be ups and downs, that's a given but a current £30m mcap is probably at least 10 times less than a commercial find of the 2 much needed resources.
Just for note the previous sp has no bearing now due to the massive dilution at such a low price. It's all about the mcap.
The Company has identified the following specific conditions at the Rukwa Project that are necessary to
discover and develop an economically viable helium deposit:
Source – the old (Archean-aged) granitic crust is rich in uranium and thorium, which naturally will
radioactively decay to produce helium via alpha decay. Reservoir – porous sandstones are potentially excellent reservoirs and based on existing drill data
there appears to be ample potential reservoirs in the Rukwa region.
Seal – seeps associated with trapping structures indicate the possibility that helium is actively filling
and spilling to seep, in which case diffusive loss through low-quality cap rock is a small risk.
Trap – many traps imaged via 2D seismic and gravity gradiometry data. Robust seismic amplitude
anomalies provide evidence for gas phase, implying effective trap and seal.
Seeps – there are hot springs in the Rukwa Basin region. The Ivuna seep has the chemical and isotopic
character consistent with a helium-rich fluid derived from the basement source.
Migration – the helium is migrating to the surface along the flanks of rifts and/or in regions where
trapping structures have filled to spill. Helium-rich seeps represent the surface manifestation of active
migration by helium laden fluids in the subsurface.
Accumulation – this is the key component that cannot be proven until drilled.
Still a long way to go but from the admission document.
'Potential to define a low capex and economically robust development
Clearly defined and simple development strategy with extensive scale up potential capable of satisfying the
demand. Modular plants allow rapid scalable development scenarios. There is a clear and efficient route to
market for the Company’s produced helium with major roads and railway infrastructure all within proximity
of the Company’s Rukwa project.'
I remember DM talking about the routes to market which seemed very viable.
An sp of 20p would put the mcap at around £600m. The value of the find could well be worth that if not more. However, there are a lot of in betweens from now and that type of valuation. It may not even be HE1 at that point, although you could still be holding a piece of the pie!
Sadly the dilution killed any near term chance of 20p. The antics that went on leading up to this are still very much questionable, however, it certainly looked like they were held over a barrel if they wanted to keep going.
For those who did invest higher, never has there been a better chance to get your average right down, however that still comes at risk if things don't pan out.
I think an sp of 3-4p near term is not unrealistic if news remains positive, it's still on an mcap of c£120m. Although if the news is even better than the recent update, then who knows!
It doesn't matter too much now if it's been diluted to death as they seem to have found the motherlode. Currently at a £20m mcap for what is possibly a world class resource which is much in need.
If it's really as good as it seems then all bets are off, you could be talking a £1bn resource. However lots of in betweens of course. It feels like anyone buying now won't go far wrong in the short to mid term.
AIM shares can turn very quickly even when all looks lost.
We don't really know what's going on in terms of the funding and it could yet surprise us.
The volume has not been particularly high which suggests it's been the regular shareholder selling from fear of complete loss and dragging the price down even further.
It's not nice to see the decimation of the share price but I feel there are still a number of scenarios that could play out that could see a turnaround.
I'm sorry Joe but if someone has lost money here they could not afford to, they should not be investing in any AIM company.
This was always speculative and it's not done yet.
People investing in a company that has an mcap of £xxm that actually has no real material value, should give people something to think about, before they plough money in they can't afford to lose.
This may sound harsh but that's the reality of AIM. It's the casino of the stock market.
I think people need to refocus on moving forward. If not invested then leave the board. If they are then consider what options you have available to you. If you honestly think this is done, then sell, as surely that's better than nothing?!
Constant posts on a bb about how disgruntled shareholders are has never resulted in anything meaningful. It's not productive.
People seem to forget that AIM is primarily a vehicle for small cap companies to raise capital.
Did everyone on this board expect this company to just suddenly have a profitable business overnight?!
It was always going to be risky and speculative. If they get it right there is massive upside to which generally why people invest in AIM companies.
To get this placing away at the current sp is actually quite impressive in the current market. Although I suspect it was done maybe when the price was slightly higher, bit still it's not too bad.
They are still joining the dots together, you either accept that or find another AIM gamble.
How bitter some have become on here. AIM is a gamble, shares go up and down.
If time on AIM has taught me anything is expect the unexpected. Don't get emotionally attached.
The prospect for HE1 is still intact, whether it's them that continue or hand it over. Plenty of opportunity still here.
Don't forget this was NCT and MYN before, both turned out to be dogs. It came back and did well as HE1 for a while. Don't write it off just yet!
They certainly don't seem like they're hanging around.
They want to get on it as soon as possible.
They know what's there it's just finding that sweet spot.
They've got everyone working around the clock to make this happen.
I believe they will achieve their aims.
Anyone with no knowledge of HE1 is likely to see things very different than those already invested.
It's clear many here are jaded having gone through the recent rollercoaster and the longer term waiting.
A pair of fresh eyes seeing a further drill is on the horizon, using data from Tai and then a return to Tai to complete will actually look quite an attractive short term opportunity.
Important to take a step back sometimes and re-evaluate what you would do if you were looking at a share for the first time.
Anyone with no knowledge of HE1 is likely to see things very different than those already invested.
It's clear many here are jaded having gone through the recent rollercoaster and the longer term waiting.
A pair of fresh eyes seeing a further drill is on the horizon, using data from Tai and then a return to Tai to complete will actually look quite an attractive short term opportunity.
Important to take a step back sometimes and re-evaluate what you would do if you were looking at a share for the first time.
The drop today is usually something like an oil company finding a duster. This is not what's happened here.
The results were good but things looked better further down the well, but they simply could not get to it with the tools they have. Lorna confirmed in the interview they will get the tools to go further. They will return as it has significant potential.
So we're still going for two drills, one that has good results already with more to come and the other known to have significant helium plays.
Funding may detail the sp further depending on timing but this is far from done and still holds massive upside.
Way overdone today when you really digest the information, but the market is what it is sadly.
Completely agree, think the prospect itself is as good as ever from hearing Lorna. It's a shame that it's temporarily coming at a cost to shareholders, but time will tell as we move forward to the next drill.
How low all the naysayers are hoping for before they buy!!
This is an exploration company. It's a bit like AIM, a bit of a gamble and the unknown!
They've done incredibly well so far, although the market won't reflect this as all they want is results at every turn!
It strikes me Lorna won't sit still for a minute and this is shown how this drill has been conducted and how they've cracked on, even with issues.
The next bit of news is likely to be positive, rig fixed, next drill, further understanding of results so far.
Good things still yet to come.