Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I think the lab test is one which is to be used in a clinical setting still as a companion diagnostic. So if a patient presents in an A+E or scheduled appointment, a professional can still use it locally. Not that it has to be sent off somewhere risking all kinds of contamination in the process.
This to me still makes it incredibly valuable.
But yes, two projects. I have pointed this out in the past.
Imagine heading for an appointment for a regular health check up and this forms part of your screening...
Mike hasn't done his sums... Oh dear...
Mike also hasn't looked at other firms in this field or M&A activity... Low market penetration this sees many billions as an mcap just off US and China. Not including EU and UK.
Think of where some forms end up off retained profits alone, let alone revs. There are firms that only see a few mil profit and have mcaps over a billion.
It's too long to post here.
It's based off China, US and low end targets for routine testing and the royalties form both. I emphasize the LOW END. From smokers.
It's not based off mcap = annual revs as some seem to have done before. Big pharma simply doesn't do that in valuations so why should we. M&A activity is based off long term sustainable income generation and lead generation for other treatments off a diagnosis - have a think who is doing this currently...
Mixed in you could also add assumptions for markets we are not yet targeting. EU, UK.
I'm not factoring in assumptions for breast cancer or distantly in the future monoclonal antibody if this should ever go that way.
I've sent rather long posts to others privately on this.
I have my targets. I appreciate it's well north of most. Everyone should have their own targets and take when they hit it...
Absolutely correct CC. To trade these for 15% would be bonkers when those that research what they are buying and not buying off mere trading technicals are accumulating for a much more significant and greater return.
I'm sat firmly on my hands.
I've seen the same people complaining of director holdings and alignment with shareholders also complaining now.
Maybe they can't buy open market...
This enables alignment with us...
Price isn't great but it is done as an average over a month. Neither party can help that.
Look at the numbers. They have to put up some serious cash to buy them.
Mazik, it isn't 75%.
Much of the 'institutions' are nominee accounts. These are PI.
About 30% isn't in public hands.
And don't sell yourself short for £5.
Do some back of the envelope calcs and understand pharma looks for long term... Not annual revs plus a bit more.
I'll bang the drum on £15 again...
Have a great weekend all.
And they traded at that price for something that was a glorified flu.
And don't get me started on the inaccuracy of their test...
It's quite clear that there are tonnes of fish and chip traders in this now that haven't researched or done calcs off even small market penetrations. Stop thinking in pennies...
US market would be bigger than China market if you do the back of envelope calcs...
Factor in breast cancer...
This is why I'll keep banging a drum on £15... About 6Bn...
Never mind 1Bn...
Obviously take what you are happy with as the share meets your own targets but always consider leaving some in... Just incase, especially if it's no longer costing you to do so...
I think people don't see that pharma and biotech M&A isn't like tech or oil...
It often goes for multiples of mere projections/expectations. Then pipelines are also in consideration as well as future development plans. Pharma's tend to think in terms of 5-10 years and not what's the RNS going to say tomorrow...
I think people don't see that pharma and biotech M&A isn't like tech or oil...
It often goes for multiples of mere projections/expectations. Then pipelines are also in consideration as well as future development plans. Pharma's tend to think in terms of 5-10 years and not what's the RNS going to say tomorrow...