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The volumes wouldn't indicate large entities selling.

It all looks like bored PI.

It was this:

https://x.com/TomWinnifrith/status/1633079106689441793?s=20

I think one of the writers for SP knows Allan...

Or has at least met before.

Last time around they didn't really write negatively, just said options had been unluckily timed.

Compare mcaps.

OBD went from around 15-20m mcap to about 100m mcap. Then back down to about 23m.

We are about 8m. I wouldn't look at x 5. I'd be more inclined to look at 10+.

I maxed my ISA. I'm surprised the ISA limit hasn't been dropped yet.

The technicals don't matter so much unless you are trading in and out.

News will always beat it in either direction.

And likewise 👍

Good buy Cymru.

Long time no see 👋.

Hope you have been keeping well.

Trying to read this board with all the spam adverts in the way is a nightmare!

Yes, retail wouldn't understand the significance of it.

But those that look at any contracts made to sell the product afterwards will look at it.

It's not just a one in four. You have two measures, it's important to be told that you also don't have it too. Sensitivity and specificity.

Could also be discussing licensing in other states where Corepath aren't approved.

Potentially a lot going on.

I dont think they are just sat there twiddling thumbs.

A note on higher volume testing, I know we said it in telegram group, it may be that the accuracy is slightly compromised. If we are 75-85% accurate as opposed to 95% in early stages, that is still phenomenal. Not saying that's what it is, I don't know but it's something I'd perhaps expect due to the environment change of the test.

On price with a handful of small sells.

Personally think people are a bit mad for selling such amounts at this stage.

Can only assume must have needed the money for something else.

The IPO valuation was £26m... Not sure where 15 comes from...

I think if they didn't put put the odd tweet, people would ask where are they?

The odd tweet does no harm. I don't see it being like the begging bowl lifestyle cos that then pump out misleading RNS to then place off strength.

We know that isn't the case with pay and options here. I'm pretty sure that like the rest of us, they want to see the product out there in its best possible format and then see the share price move to make the most of those options.

It's diabolical. As is the cost. The wider public need to understand just how inaccurate the test is and how expensive it is.

Then along comes ciz...

China has saw a surge of money leaving the country.

Remember, it is not poxy firms over there we are dealing with. It's Bosch and Sinopharm. The pricing too is what would keep the tech authentic on top of the risk of much larger entities continuing to walk. They cannot risk that.

Time sensitive - I agree but market shares aren't always based on first mover advantage. Usually who you know beats what you know.

Number of tests again is a market share issue. In bio tech valuations are revs x 10 plus pipeline considered. A small slice of the markets in the US and China are hundreds of millions per year.

We can only speculate on this board what can or cannot come. I don't think the company would take IPO x 4. It's far too low. What we may see could be royalty deals amended for licensing.

I wouldn't take a 100 mil mcap on what could be repeat tests throughout a patients journey.

My own musings:

China 3-4 million lung cancer diagnosis per year. Let's say we only get a slice of the tests. To even diagnose 3 million you are sampling 30 million patients. Likely more.

If we test just 5 million, that's 50 million per year based off what we know.

US, again you'd be screening 2-6 million per year. 30 million are the risk category. So let's go low. 2 million. Test at $250 per go again going low as $450 has been touted.

15 percent royalty is what we currently know. Going low that's 75 million.

So low end, that's 125 million. Just off the two countries. Not the EU, not the UK, not down under or else where in Asia.

It all depends on manufacture, scale and take up. But to be happy with 100mil. Nope.

I appreciate this is back of the envelope and speculation but I've put these numbers here to try and get people to wrap their heads around the potential.

I honestly expect more.

We can only wait though to see how well things are taken up and understand the pipeline.

But certainly people are getting warmer by thinking in pounds and not pennies.

It's not that the share can't hold a gain but whoever held the shares that have been sold.

They don't look like typical PI trades however...

Drawdown is inevitable as either side can use it as and when. It's money on the table for both.

Once revenue comes in at a suitable level, would we expect any kind of raise? I wouldn't...

We should be talking of licensing instead. This prevents the need for anything like that. The IP does it's business then.

I can only assume someone has reported a post in a thread. Enough reports and it wipes out the entire thread.