@Glittertip you would think so but "paper gold" is a derivative contract which is a multiple
bet on the market. In a physical transaction you are buying and paying for each ounce of gold.
With derivatives you can buy multiples [ x 10, x100] at a margin price so one would be very unlikely
to take delivery as you would have to pay 100% for the basic number of ounces.
Therefore virtually all such contracts are closed out, if profitable, or lapse.
So demand for physical gold in substitute for these contracts would not be great.
Fundamentally in a positive way.
In future those wishing to invest in gold will have to hold the physical metal.
How many will do so, rather than a paper bet, is clearly a guess.
However it would no longer be possible for traders/banks to "go short" of gold and so
a true supply/demand pricing structure will ensue.
As gold is seen by many as a finite "real value" asset not linked to countries/currencies and as there
are many financial hazards [inflation/higher interest rates/tapering of QE etc] on the horizon it seems
to me that gold has a positive future.
As for ECR, the current drilling programme has a very good chance of success. The next 18 months
or so could well see turmoil in dollar outlook, to the benefit of gold. Many will hedge accordingly imv.
So with sufficient funds to finance our near term prospecting, we are in a good position.
The BIS has stipulated a change in bank reserve assets and down graded "Paper Gold" contracts
so it becomes unprofitable to hold them beyond end June. The discussions on Basel 3 have been
ongoing for many years.
Most if not all of these forward sale contracts do not have convertibility into physical metal.
The estimates for total amount of trades vary but conservatively many billions of dollars, thus
creating a false market in gold to the advantage of the US and the FED.
@luckyorange My view entirely. Basel 3 in action!
"Paper gold" [unallocated] contracts no longer profitable for US/EU banks after end June,
unless last minute reprieve, and UK market extended to end Dec.
Look for recovery in POG when market manipulation i.e. forward sales has to stop.
@2phevs Re RNS 13th Nov 2020
It has not been possible to reach agreement with one of the Company's preferred creditors
in the amount of approx US $3.85m. The company intends to work towards the agreement
of a payment plan with this creditor and, should it not be possible to reach a satisfactory
agreement the Company would seek an alternative source of financing for this liability.
As stated, there has been no further mention of this debt since that time. I cannot therefore
accept that this creditor settled for equity/warrants for this liability. I would consider the
finalisation of such an agreement to be price sensitive information and require an RNS.
I do my own research, as always, thank you.
I keep seeing references to debt free/virtual debt free for Rambler.
There is still a preferred creditor owed US $3.85m i.e. £2.7m, that is hardly virtual
but a substantial sum to be dealt with. Are we paying interest?
There has been complete silence on this since mentioned in RNS last November.
@KnowO in the RNS 13th Nov 20 it was stated that it had not been possible to reach agreement
with a preferred creditor for US$ 3.85m. I have not seen any confirmation since that
this has been resolved.
Have we definitely cleared this liability?
Basel 3 is to eliminate the "unallocated" gold i.e. paper transactions from bank balance sheets.
Such transactions are at risk if counterparty defaults---see Lehman Bros derivatives 2008!
Do not see how this would reflect in higher borrowing costs to producers.
@nero120 yes Alistair McCleod is your man on gold price outlook--worth looking at
a couple of recent videos.
Forward selling by banks/central banks of "paper gold" has held down spot price.
Basel 3 will mean these positions will have to be unwound and not recycled.
BIS has stipulated by end of June for EU. UK has extended this until end Dec.
Should only be positive for POG.
Just a comment on latest RNS.
This confirms 108221444 shares at 1p in issue.
Previous RNS 30th April confirms 107448486 [adjusted for consolidation]
Thus increase of 772958 new shares or over 77 million in old shares.
This would appear to me that warrants for shares totalling over 77m were exercised--- and sold?
That would seem to be the answer as to why sp has been underperforming of late despite
copper price rise to over $10k
With regard to AGM, no issues of concern, but none of the executive showed the slightest bit
of optimism or positivity---just played all questions with a straight bat.
Yet there is plenty to be positive about! What a missed opportunity.
Sorry to hear some trading platforms are giving problems with RMM
I have my trading account with Halifax--no problems at all.
In fact added 3 trades today --as a LTH I need to bring down my average!
Good positive outlook now -- and a thankyou to Cornish for his quality posts.
@baldmark At last another poster who can see what Basel3 will mean.
All LBMA "short" [unallocated] paper gold contracts will have to be closed.
Real shortage of physical bullion will clearly introduce pressure on pog.
The BIS regulation simply put means banks can no longer hold down gold price by selling
paper contracts. If you want to hold gold make sure it is physical bullion.
Also check out what is likely to happen with pog as a result of Basel3 from June onwards.
Paper gold contracts will all be closed out , LBMA will be greatly affected.
If you are buying gold make sure it is physical bullion--and stored securely.
Gold miners like PAF can only benefit from these changes invoked by BIS.
@tomcat_14 Agreed, depends what is in jv agreement, but I understood [as stated by KM at an AGM]
that this was very loosely worded.
Even if we can develop as per scoping study, with a market cap circa £45m I would see
funding difficulties for our minority stake to get development costs.
"Economics trumps sentiment in business" @Bannor, so very true.
That is why I would not expect any favours from either BCN or Gangfeng for our jv.
I understand there is no mining agreements for either jv [inc Pilabara] so we are not in a
strong position to negotiate future development----Dallasdaz confrm?
Therefore I would expect Gangfeng to play "hardball" and either develop elsewhere [not
likely imv] or propose that we contribute to development costs or at best an "earn in"
agreement--with costs out of our control. Thus I feel we are strapped in to probable
difficult period of negotiation.
Roll on Amapa creditor agreement --at least we have input here.
@AG1989 & Legalwolf I have been investing in stock market for over 60 yrs!
Invested here after my research, such as I can do. Discount to recent placing,
positive chart outlook, substantial cash reserves, good licences with great prospects.
Not for widows and orphans, but a good speculative investment.