RE: Wow!1 Apr 2022 16:30
Wow, where to start :-)
My two cents (high level):
1.) Dilution: ~1 billion shares currently issued with dilution to come as part of the Financing package for Dundas
2.) Uncertainty: In my opinion, the entire companies future and shareholder sanity hinges on the financing of Dundas. If they don't get funding locked in by early Q1 2023 and mine build out does not commence asap post this (18mth build) to start generating revenue then Bluejay may not be able to fund its Disko commitments in 2024 without another dillution to existing shareholders. (Note: they don't know what they have at Disko yet)
3.) Management: Long term holders on here will tell you that the BoD have led them up the garden path on multiple occassions and are super slow, don't have the best track record (i.e. where are the Enonkoski Assay results) and are bad at communicating.
4.) For me the current SP is about right and without any significant news in the intervening months should drift lower. Dundas by itself (no dilution) is worth a 24p SP (Dundas NPV / ~1bn shares) with current uncertainty / risk then its in the right ball park at the moment (Noting, if Dundas was a single asset project, that the bluejay market cap will start converging towards the project NPV as mine build progresses to production).
All that being said, I am here for Disko and think its worth the risk. With initial Disko exploration starting soon, I think the timing may just about work. My hunch is that Disko initial exploration results including assays will be fully out by end of year. If results are good, and I expect they will be, the SP will re-rate significantly. Why does this matter, well its timing - we get a significant re-rate ahead of Dundas financing and dilution = less dilution for existing shareholders = more upside on current SP. If Disko results are not as good as expected then = more dilution for Dundas = less upside potential on current SP.
Either way a lot of things need to go right for Bluejay this year and thats roughly why the SP is where it is!
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