Member Info for itsawrap

Https://www.egdon-resources.com/media/news

there haven't been any Egdon updates for 8 months - the data is from the NSTA (May due 1st Aug) and the opex estimate is my best guess. wrt the monthly bpd, that's an average for the month so any down time would pull the average down, for example I believe there was downtime over Christmas

The last RNS mentioned a $20m milestone for Wressle - hopefully that is not the quarterly update in which case we could have another RNS next week with transparency on the Royalties and the Andrews wells. Shareholders need to know what DB considers a "major success" plus we need to know how well the monthly Royalties did in H1.

...Gold dust? I hope so but do not underestimate the ability of the Chuckle Brothers to screw the pooch

Nov 458 bpd, Dec 439 bpd, Jan 609 bpd, Feb 468 bpd, Mar 511 bpd, Apr 436 bpd

Europa owns 30% of Wressle - my guess is opex is circa $12 per barrel so maybe $275k - $300k in April

Https://drillordrop.com/2024/07/11/breaking-biscathorpe-oil-plans-quashed-and-government-drops-defence-of-cumbrian-coal-mine-after-landmark-court-ruling/

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqql0g6kvz5o

Thanks for the link. It's amazing how quickly they are progressing compared to Egdon who make glaciers look fast

Http://rheinpetroleum.com/ back online after being down for weeks

This is the part I liked

"Work continues at the Andrews 1-17 wellsite, comprising installation of gas export facilities and further upgrades. This work is expected to be completed by late July/early August 2024, followed by flow rates and other associated information."

We had a Q1 update Wednesday 17th April - hopefully we will have a Q2 update next week. That will be a full 6 months of the "monthly" Royalty income plus many weeks of Andrews production - will Bramhill be transparent or will we get more spin and half-truths?

£44m cash at year end and they seem to have a cash-burn of about £1m per month so say £38m cash which is more or less the mcap (excluding £5m to dhsc and vat refund due). So is this the new reality, an mcap that drops £1m a month due to cash-burn? Sorry, that's a fairly gloomy outlook but until they can prove they can grow the company with new revenue streams it may be realistic...is our only hope a takeover bid?

Https://scitechmag.bruntwood.co.uk/skelton-welcome/welcome-to-skelton-house

this could be it

Revenue for 2023 fell to £11.6m compared with £21.0m in 2022. The main driver for the reduction was reduced COVID-19 sales; 2023 included £0.6m of COVID-19 related sales compared to £14.7m in 2022. The decline was driven by reduced demand for COVID-19 testing...

covid related revenue appears to be dead in the water as covid strains are now considered just part of flu season. It's hard to see how they are going to drive organic growth

'2024 will be an important year in gaining all the formal approvals and operationalising the site to start producing first gas and generating early cash flow, currently targeted for 2025.'

...last year they said they expected all permits by year-end, these guys are masters of spin, they continuously keep the big investors on side by always promising that success is just around the corner. The mystery is why cant the big investors see through the bullcrap, why do they keep voting in favour of Resolutions instead of sending a strong message to the Board?

Sweet fanny adams happening with our JV's, it's all down to the US now - unfortunately Bramhill doesn't do transparency so we sit on our shares with our fingers crossed that Andrews is a "major" discovery and that the Royalties are providing a decent monthly income...meanwhile the fat-cats get fatter...

I have no confidence that WN will be drilled however Colle Santo has a good chance of success imo. Unfortunately the financial picture is no where near as good as RBD has suggested.'

'Colle Santo has the potential to generate an estimated €11-12m of post-tax free cash flow per annum according to LNEnergy Management estimates, at 9 mmcf/d sales gas and €45/MWh.' - of which only 90% is due to LNe

'The average forward Italian PSV gas price for the years 2025-2030 is currently approximately €30 / MWh.'

...the €11-12m pa looks much more like €6.6 - 7.2m which they have stated will be used to fund further capex

It could be years before RBD sees a dividend, however shareholders should probably see a much higher sp as the story unfolds. btw does anyone know if the 10% beneficial owner is paying 10% of capex?

It doesn't matter what any of the uber rampers post here, the market thinks this company stinks...as the rampers point out, "valued at less than cash"...there are very good reasons for that

This is what RBD stated recently...

'Re-enter and recomplete or sidetrack one of the currently suspended wells on or before 30 June 2026'

'The JV is fully funded for re-entry and recompletion and operational activity is anticipated to commence during 2024.'

...I certainly don't read this a as commitment to drill in 2024, "operational activity" is not drilling imo, so why is DB so confident, has he been seduced (again) by the RBD snake-oil salesmen?

...up to now Egdon and Rathlin have been a much bigger obstacle to drilling in the UK than Government policy.

We should have the Q2 wressle update in a couple of week with the cash position and possible news of H1 Royalty income. the Q1 update gave an av. bpd for Wressle, assuming they do so again we can extrapolate the May/June av using the April 436bpd, hopefully in the 450-500bpd range but I suspect 400-450bpd is the new normal. Until we have more data on the US Royalties & Andrews, fair value is anyone's guess but 8p seems too low