Member Info for itsawrap

"I've watched, without commenting, on this diatribe of hate against the two but now we have some decent info."

I understand why many dont post when feelings are running high but do you think they are doing a good job? circa £40m invested in RBD, plus £12m revenue, zero rewards for shareholders and an mcap of just £5m. surely that screams incompetence?

Here's an interesting take from chatgpt

1. Unsecured Loan as a Lifeline (Not a Solution)

The £0.5m loan isn't a funding round — it's a patch to keep the lights on.

It suggests no one is ready to take equity risk at current levels or terms.

The investor likely negotiated influence without ownership — "we’ll save you for now, but we’re in charge until further notice."

2. Covenants Without Cash

No financial covenants, but a negative pledge and strong operational restrictions.

It’s soft control disguised as debt — if Celadon wants to raise money, sell assets, or pivot, it likely has to ask permission.

This loan acts as a "poison pill" against new funding unless it comes in large enough to refinance the loan.

3. Delisting + Debt = Darkness

Delisting from AIM puts Celadon in the shadows — no daily price discovery, no analyst coverage, reduced scrutiny.

Combine that with debt that has no public disclosure requirements beyond a basic update, and you get an environment ripe for backroom deals.

In this kind of setup, a private investor can quietly: Accumulate influence, Push for a distressed sale or even engineer a debt-to-equity flip at their chosen valuation

4. Board Resignations: The Canary in the Coal Mine

Four NEDs walking out after the delisting plan is a massive red flag.

They likely saw a strategy that prioritizes survival for insiders or select investors, not shareholders.

That kind of mass exit suggests governance has collapsed — or at least become centralized.

🧠 Final Take: A Study in Distress Management

Celadon is now a case study in:

How to keep a company alive without fixing it

How to retain control without diluting ownership

How short-term capital can secure long-term influence

It's not sustainable long-term — but it buys time, and in distressed finance, time = optionality for those with control.

Hotc, if you are right that begs the question - why help Celadon for a tiny 10% return if a big lender is close to being signed? Sourcing proper funding will be great for the sp, so why not cash for shares?

What I find odd about this unsecured loan is that the lender has 10% upside and 100% downside. if he/she had placed the cash in exchange for new shares, there's still 100% downside but potentially huge upside - I know what I would have chosen

A high net worth individual has lent CEL £0.5m for 1 year at 10% unsecured - that person must be incredibly confident and must therefore expect the company not just to survive but to thrive. So why not place the cash in exchange for new shares? I don't get it.

Clay, here's part of my post from yesterday... "So how much money do we need to grow the company and pay debts...£5m? £10m? £20m? I have no idea, but imo a few hundred thousand won't be enough to keep CEL afloat for more than 2 or 3 months."

this morning we have been told that £500k cash keeps the lights on until the end of July, where's all the money going???

Hi clay, probably referring to me? I had a big holding - lost a shed load - then bailed out completely. Although not currently invested, I'm watching very carefully as there may be an opportunity to make money. It's a forum, I say it as I see it, feel free to filter me...

Following the receipt of the funds under this New Facility, the Directors believe the Company will have sufficient cash into July 2025 dependent upon receiving further funding and continued creditor and stakeholder support.

...the last 2 weeks has been an incredible trading opportunity for those who had faith (not me unfortunately) but £500k cash gives them a lifeline for just 2 months so I'm struggling to see an investment case.

Dont forget the £12m revenue, so circa £52m turned into an mcap of £4m

...cash was a surprise, more than I thought

17 months since the CS application was submitted and that's without legal challenges. I was confident it would be granted but far less so now.

There is a chance that WN will progress with a re-completion which is costed at £1.4m for the JV and I seem to recall they said it would only take an hour.

The Finals are due this month, expect a masterclass in spin, obfuscation and corporate bullcrap...

15 trades totalling about £5k yet the sp rises 30%...very odd

For me the big question is how much money is needed to reach the point at which revenue exceeds costs? we know that revenue in H1 2024 was £63k for 8 harvests with 16 harvests targeted for 2024, plus whatever revenue we get from Valeos, that's not going to keep the lights on. So how much money do we need to grow the company and pay debts...£5m? £10m? £20m? I have no idea, but imo a few hundred thousand won't be enough to keep CEL afloat for more than 2 or 3 months. The complete lack of transparency re revenue is a huge ref flag for me.

..although the deadline is a year away and Rathlin is in trouble, only £1.4m is required for re-completion - 1/6 of which will come from UJO - there is a small chance that something will happen but if anyone can screw it up, it's the Chuckle Bothers.

Future commitments

The Group has obligations to carry out defined work programmes on its licences under the terms of the award of rights to these licences.

Onshore PEDL 183 - West Newton

Reabold's minimum work programme for PEDL 183 is as follows:

· Re-enter and recomplete or sidetrack one of the currently suspended wells on or before 30 June 2026

· Re-enter and recomplete or sidetrack one of the remaining suspended wells or drill and complete a new deviated or horizontal well on or before 30 June 2027, and

· Submit a field development plan on or before 30 June 2027

Reabold anticipates re-entering and recompleting an existing West Newton well in 2025 in order to establish sustained gas flow The gross cost to re-enter and re-complete is expected to be c.£1.4 million (c.£0.2 million net cost for Reabold).

I'm not confident he will, that's why I have sold 90% of my shares in recent weeks

How will Europa find £3.7m if none of the big ticket items deliver in a reasonable time-frame? It's obvious Europa is running on fumes, hence the desperate RSA

"They are selling parts of wressle in return for £500k." ...not quite true. They have sold 15% of the gross revenue stream for $500k but they have not sold any part of their 30% of the PEDL (which means they are still on the hook for 30% of capex)

"In the event funding for the Group is secured, the Company remains committed to proceeding with a cancellation of trading of the Company's ordinary shares on AIM." Does anyone know why they will de-list even if they secure funding???

...no not obsessed, just a former shareholder rubber-necking a corporate car crash. As for only seeing the negatives, this is what I posted a few days ago "The tragedy is, Celadon could be a successful company with the right funding and proper financial discipline."

I'm surprised by the bounce considering the last RNS said this... "In the event funding for the Group is secured, the Company remains committed to proceeding with a cancellation of trading of the Company's ordinary shares on AIM."