RE: itsagame17 Jan 2020 18:03
I spend to much time thinking about AAOG lately, i was looking at zens lists of 100% owned assets and subsidiaries and just thought near term they wont be doing something with every single one.
Doesnt have to be a Zen asset but potential is out there, a simple asset to retain the listing, a new asset could be taken on with close to no upfront cost and only cash being spent on development at later stages down the line (eg Angus and the gas project that cost £1 + cover decommissioning costs in years to come, by which time i would expect the subsidiary for Angus to have ceased trading or be sold off but thats a different story.)
So as it stands as a £1.5m mcap company, I have been thinking about the deal here and where AAOG currently stands, and have taken the opinion that it could work out, the deal was needed because the companies cash pot was empty, and i can understand the limited financing available given the license expiry date and that is it AAOGs single asset, and the high amount needed, i expect it will be better once the license is renewed or on any well news.
Looking at it with refreshed eyes realistically AAOG were potentially short about $4.5-$5m for the quarter, the deal removed nearly all of the following liabilities which were potentially due very shortly, plus the £500k to cover other things.
SMP = $650k / 20% = $130k / 80% = $520k.
License renewal = $2m / 20% = now covered
The next stage of work on the well = say ~$1-2m / 20% = now covered
(+Longer term another $3/4m on well costs.)
I think the potential $650k + legal costs next month and the $2m was the main motive for the board to take this path, with no financing available insolvency / administration / liquidation could have been a real possibility, and with no clear path forward what option did they have, if Align had proof of the potential bond it could have been different but that doesn't matter anymore.
Short term the deal means AAOG no longer potentially need to find the additional >$5m and is free carried to the point of well completion, there are still problems but this has removed or at least deadly most of the short term issues.
Be nice if the well hits >2001 bpd so atleast the future of the 11.2% is AAOGs (and no doubt the new boards) decision to make next year.