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I cant agree with your valuation because it's totally unrealistic and includes values which are totally unknown at this point like the testing revenue of 20 Mil so you cant claim it's all based on information that has been provided.
For the Covid challenge studies let's stick to the value that is most likely which is 7.4 Mil per study, and be conservative because I dont believe that there will be 12 more like 6 which gives £45 Mil.
You cant add any value that is achieved from the sale of Immutex because were talking about the valuation of Orph and CF has been pretty clear what he is going to do with the proceeds of any sale so this value will not count towards Orphs valuation even if it has the same value to Orphs current shareholders.
I can agree for the most part on the value you put on all the other 'sum of the parts' areas of the business but not what I have explained above. Even so I can still see OO having a value of between 4 & 500 Mil. AIMHO.
When he mentioned 8 - 10 he was talking in dollars not pounds. Which is somewhere between 6.2 & 7.7 Million pounds.
It's also a big assumption of 13 Million per study when it was specifically stated in the RNS dated 24th September:
The Company confirms that it is in advanced negotiation with the UK Government and other partners for a Coronavirus challenge study in the UK. While negotiations continue, it is expected that in the event that a contract is agreed revenue will be in excess of £7 million, being the approximate anticipated revenue for a Coronavirus challenge study as indicated by the Company on 22 May 2020.
Now I know it says 'in excess' of 7 Million but I think your pushing it a bit saying it'll be 13 or even 10. In excess will mean 7.3 or 7.4 or something similar.
I never said that the company is not worth more than where we are because I think it is but just not anywhere near the level you believe. AIMHO.
It's very much at the top end of a valuation. CF has specifically stated 7 Mil per Covid vaccine challenge study yet you have used 10 Million and 12 studies to get to your 120 Million projection. Last time I checked 7 x 12 was not 120 and I dont believe we will get 12 studies.
You've also added the cash from the sale of Imutex to Orph's valuation when CF has already stated this will be returned to shareholders as a dividend and therefore will not sit on OO's balance sheet. I think cutting your valuation in half might be a bit nearer the mark.
Theres no hard and fast rule, it will be when they decide it's appropriate. They may announce the dividend at the same time they notify the market of the sale but the most important date is the record date which is the day that you must be on the shareholder register to receive the dividend. Which means you must buy any shares 2 days before this date to ensure your on the register as UK equities typically take 2 working days to settle. DYOR.
No not 'deramping' you tool. Just keeping things factual but you obviously can't handle it so you try and discredit anyone who doesnt fit with your own agenda, well good luck with that because you won't intimidate me.
and I presume that doesnt fit with you because your one of those people who only like people who post positive comments even if they are incorrect or massively embellish the facts.
Not quite
CF has stated that he would return any cash from an asset sale to shareholders via a dividend but this would not start immediately on an asset sale. The company would have to issue three dates after they first announce they will pay a dividend. 1) The record date 2) The ex-dividend date and 3) The payment date so their will be a period of time until these are announced that any cash from the sale of an asset will be added to OO's balance sheet and investors would still have a chance to receive the dividend after any sale is announced.
New boy shares go up and down and because of the large % swings in share price AIM attracts a large number of traders alot of whom will have bought in yesterday on the news and guess what sold today for a nice 10% profit. Your either holding this share for the medium to long term or trading it in the short term or possibly you could do both.
Moniman you talk absolute drivel. If your so unhappy with how it's going why don't you just sell up or do something proactive and contact CF directly to discuss your issues instead of coming on here to whinge just because your nowhere near in profit.
I'll believe that when the contracts are signed, Its a dangerous game counting your chickens before they've hatched.
Not sure yet which way this one is going to go. Some may opt for challenge studies but with 50000 New cases reported in India in the last 24 hours there still seems plenty of scope for traditional stage 3 trials.
Gunfish please don't make things up, there's absolutely no guarantee that 12 contracts will be signed and he hasn't said £8 - £12Mill each he said $8 - $10 Mill that's dollars not pounds so stop trying to mislead everyone.
Shareseeker why don't you stop talking crap. Dont try and tell me that you've researched fully every single company on AIM to make your super ramp tastic statement. Oh ORPH is the safest bet on AIM blah blah blah what a load of crap, there are no certainties in investing, situations change, companies change and right now there are still a lot of its buts and maybe's that may or may not pan out.
Yes of course i am aware of the exchange rate which is why i meantioned it, i mean you were only 10Mil out! I personally just think it's important that anything that's posted is as far as reasonably possible as accurate as possible because some do take what's written on here as red.
I think that is the problem a lot of people assume too much. No I don't think Immutex is worthless but I think it's still foolish to assume that it will be worth the 500 Mil some people are predicting. CF only mentioned that Themis was sold between 100 and 500 and was 'towards the upper end' but people have assumed that means at the very top end. The figure I have heard actually mentioned was 350 so again a big difference.
Shandypants I think you'll find that CF was talking in dollars not pounds and there's a massive difference and there's no guarantee that he'll sign any contracts so I wouldn't get too carried away.
Initially it was 7 Mill per study then it went to 8 - 10 but did you notice that's dollars and not pounds. I don't really know if the value per study has increased or not as I don't ever recall the initial 7 Mill estimate being clarified as pounds or dollars and why would he now be talking in dollars instead of pounds.
I think you need to be careful what you say shareseeker. He wasn't talking about the value of Imutex he was talking about what Merck paid for Themis. Nowhere did he mention that he thought Imutex was worth 500 million.
Saying he could have placed the stock with an ii from the placing. Hmmm so why haven't these ii's desperate for stock been buying the last few days? Ok maybe at a slight premium on the open market but hey it's certainly not not too far off the placing price now so come on CF get your ii's buying.
Absolutely correct he did indeed say they will be signing a contract with a big pharma in the next week or so.
RSP's are retail service providers (MM's) who set the buy and sell prices of x number of shares in any given company.