Member Info for Ironman22

Statto, you cant say categorically that's what CF meant at all, that's your interpretation. If he meant they were below 3% he would have said "Invesco are now below 3%" but he didn't he said "they are gone" my interpretation of that is they are completely out. I have tried to clarify this with CF himself but not had a reply, unless someone has some more reliable evidence that they are still holding.

You say Invesco are almost out. Would you mind sharing where your getting that information from as CF has stated that Invesco are out.

I've seen quite a few posts regarding the share price of OO based on CF's billion dollar valuation projection which range from £1.10 to £1.20. However I'm not so sure that this is correct. In his last webinar CF categorically stated that his billion dollar projection included the spin offs. Currently these spin offs have 0 value on OO's balance sheet but are never the less owned by OO's shareholders. My understanding is that when they are spun off they will be IPO'd and become their own companies with their own shares (which OO share holders will receive) and their own valuation and their own share price, therefore these new spinoff company valuations will not be part of OO's overall valuation and hence will not be reflected in it's share price, so it will be the valuation of OO and all of the spin off companies and all their individual share prices that will make up the billion dollar valuation and not OO on it's own.

Currently I believe Hvivo are the only company that have the ability to carry out HCT. So at present you could say they have the monopoly. However It is not impossible that someone else, a company/government like the Chinese could start carrying out HCT although it is not something that is very easy to do. The most difficult part of it being the challenge agent required to perform a trial which requires a high level of expertise to create of which as I understand it there are very few people in the world that have this skill which is where the presently Hvivo employed Adrian Wildfire et al come in.

Yes, they know a 1 for 1 dividend in specie is coming and it's a super easy way to make 280k

Managed to get 10k @ 1.82. Already up, never expected that!

Never seems to move? It's gone up 400% since February.

It always fascinates me how some investors need constant validation of their decision to invest in a company. ii's are buying so I should be buying, oh no ii's are selling so I should be selling like institutional investors are absolute gods and cant possibly make bad/wrong decisions like Neil Woodford errrr....and Gervais William's et al. Let me tell you something, to be a successful private investor you need to able to stand on your own two and have the balls to make your own decisions and the courage of your own convictions and not be a lemming. Who gives a ***s if ii's are buying or selling because they have there own agenda. Put the effort in, do your research, make your own decision and if it goes tits up don't cry about it.

Yes Heathrow flying back to Dublin i got that, but it sounded like the noise of pots and pans in the background.

Was he in a kitchen?!?
You've got to love him ' watch this space' lol
Whitechapel booked out until end of 21.
Royal free booked until summer 22.

Cheers Barwick & I was, the two at the bottom. GL to you too.

I've got more shares than some of them maybe I should be on the list.

82.5 Million is quite fantastic if you ask me and that doesnt include possibly 6 or 7 Covid challenge studies at 10 million each. So revenue could be 140 to 150 Million.

Yes I think that's the case. They will certainly be charging at least 7 Mil for each study as CF has already indicated but up to 10 Mil depending on the number of participants. At least that's how I understand it.

I do acknowledge that the sale of Immutex will drive the share price up in the short term as I said, but it will come right back down again when the dividend is issued as it does with every single other company that issues a dividend and since that money has been distributed to shareholders it cannot be counted towards the valuation of OO as trader 3 is suggesting. You guys are all free to wait for your £1.20 share price but I think you'll be waiting a very long time.

I agree that when Immutex is sold any cash will be added to Orphs balance sheet and the share price will adjust proportionally.
However CF has stated that any cash from the sale of Immutex will be returned to shareholders as a dividend payment which i expect to be done rather quickly so the cash from any sale may have a positive effect on the share price in the short term but once it has been distributed to shareholders that money will no longer belong to OO so how can it possibly be added to it's market cap. Answer it can't. This is a basic principle which i understand very well but obviously some others are struggling

I cant agree with your valuation because it's totally unrealistic and includes values which are totally unknown at this point like the testing revenue of 20 Mil so you cant claim it's all based on information that has been provided.

For the Covid challenge studies let's stick to the value that is most likely which is 7.4 Mil per study, and be conservative because I dont believe that there will be 12 more like 6 which gives £45 Mil.

You cant add any value that is achieved from the sale of Immutex because were talking about the valuation of Orph and CF has been pretty clear what he is going to do with the proceeds of any sale so this value will not count towards Orphs valuation even if it has the same value to Orphs current shareholders.

I can agree for the most part on the value you put on all the other 'sum of the parts' areas of the business but not what I have explained above. Even so I can still see OO having a value of between 4 & 500 Mil. AIMHO.

When he mentioned 8 - 10 he was talking in dollars not pounds. Which is somewhere between 6.2 & 7.7 Million pounds.

It's also a big assumption of 13 Million per study when it was specifically stated in the RNS dated 24th September:

The Company confirms that it is in advanced negotiation with the UK Government and other partners for a Coronavirus challenge study in the UK. While negotiations continue, it is expected that in the event that a contract is agreed revenue will be in excess of £7 million, being the approximate anticipated revenue for a Coronavirus challenge study as indicated by the Company on 22 May 2020.

Now I know it says 'in excess' of 7 Million but I think your pushing it a bit saying it'll be 13 or even 10. In excess will mean 7.3 or 7.4 or something similar.

I never said that the company is not worth more than where we are because I think it is but just not anywhere near the level you believe. AIMHO.

It's very much at the top end of a valuation. CF has specifically stated 7 Mil per Covid vaccine challenge study yet you have used 10 Million and 12 studies to get to your 120 Million projection. Last time I checked 7 x 12 was not 120 and I dont believe we will get 12 studies.
You've also added the cash from the sale of Imutex to Orph's valuation when CF has already stated this will be returned to shareholders as a dividend and therefore will not sit on OO's balance sheet. I think cutting your valuation in half might be a bit nearer the mark.

Theres no hard and fast rule, it will be when they decide it's appropriate. They may announce the dividend at the same time they notify the market of the sale but the most important date is the record date which is the day that you must be on the shareholder register to receive the dividend. Which means you must buy any shares 2 days before this date to ensure your on the register as UK equities typically take 2 working days to settle. DYOR.