Member Info for investor33

Hamm ; price action coupled with volume shows the ongoing picture of the balance of supply and demand. And in the case of recurrent spikey price action, the degree that traders/speculators have driven the price action.

That exploration phase price action was a long series of price spikes, showing that speculators/traders were mainly driving the price action. Not so much now.

Proquo ; spot on.

Re this point ; " Master is always banging on about how the sp has catered from double-figures to 1p because of a useless CEO,blah, blah etc when what he is really saying is that he messed up big and he just got sucked into the hype vortex. "

Master just took some random share price from any part of a spike during the exploration years - probably near the top of one. To take an example, back in July 2023 straight after an insignificant hot air RNS, the share price went from 1.8p on the open to about 6.5p on the same day purely on the back of a MM/ trader driven "sucker rally. " It had been about 3p on the previous close. And then a few weeks later it was back down to 2.5p. Was that all down to MB that it went from 6.5p briefly on trader driven speculation back down to 2.5p ?

""The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where people with limited knowledge or competence in a domain greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence. Because they lack the expertise to recognize their own incompetence, they often feel overconfident."

Exactly that. Dusty seems to know as much about this as the difference between " straights " and " straits."

Hamm ; " MB has tanked the share price, and some of the so-called “rampers” cheering him on just doesn’t make sense. The real investors are the ones holding MB accountable."

I think the real issue is that there were horrendously unrealistic expectations about the effect that certain milestones would have on the share price, given that Block 19 averages 70 bpd per well, whereas in Saudi Arabia it's 1000 to 2000 bpd per well. Go back to the Lassonde Curve, because I think it's relevant to oil juniors as well who are transitioning from explorer to producer. .

Hamm - in early 2024 you were talking about " 40p on production " so clearly you had unrealistic expectations. I think it was only established how much a completed well costs in a presentation last year sometime ( it's $4m ) so the amount that it costs to finish a well vs how much on average Block 19 extracts per well never made sense in terms of the start of production price predictions by some. And Master predicted " 15p on the third well " so it's hardly surprising that like Hamm he spends all his time blaming MB and the management.

I guess the moral is that it's best to have experience of how the price action of these types of microcaps tends to behave during the exploration/production transition before jumping into anything head first. Otherwise Dunning Kruger probably comes into play ie it's so simple - the company simply starts production and the share price goes into orbit. Guaranteed. Except it's not...

Dusty : there's a difference between the odd typo - which we all do from time to time, especially when posting on a phone - and several times using the word " straight " instead of " strait "And then making a big fuss because you thought I had got it wrong by spelling " strait. " That last thing excludes the notion that your phone used the wrong word via predictive text. You genuinely had no idea.

And I'm glad that you've been combing through all my previous posts. Your obsessive nature is starting to remind me of someone else who used to be on here....

And it's "faux pas " as in "pas " the French word for "step."

Dusty ; no idea what you are chuntering on about now. You mentioned "the Straight Of Hormuz " so I corrected " straight " to "Strait. "

Ever thought of doing one of those narcissism tests, to see how high on the spectrum you rate, because all the classic signs are there ? Especially the " narcissistic rage " part...

Abzzba ; if you remember, there was a guy on here ( can't remember his ID ) who was recently telling everybody that we are clearly in the wrong market at the wrong time, as all the attention and cash has been funnelled into gold instead. He said that the oil price is currently really weak, and therefore there just isn't the interest compared to when it was around $100 a barrel. Well those comments have aged well...

" You sound more stupid, naive and uniformed than I first imagined. "

Says a person who spelt " strait " as "straight" and generally seems to struggle with the English language ;

" Well if you knew the real goal, the real plan and what closing the straight does. "

When I think also about the likes of "KevinRound " is struggling to write basic English one of the main requirements of being an amateur trader ?

" Also, the sharp rises in the gold price.. " I meant.

Hamm ; the share price is where it is right now because of uncertainty as to how a roll out of Block 20 will be financed. Plus nothing factored in for the renewables.

And there isn't currently the speculative money flowing in and out which created the sudden spikes during the exploration phase. So broadly price action along the principles of the Lassonde Curve.

Plus so much speculative money recently going into gold explorers and producers - though I suspect that this may soon reverse. The USD is strengthening, inflation will go up meaning that interest rates wont fall, and gold hasn't reacted how many would have thought it would since the Iran conflict started. Also, the rises in the sharp gold price early in the year will have partly been driven by a short squeeze.

Just over £202m worth of volume today with BP - around £40k's worth with MATD. Volume is the fuel which drives share prices.

Have you not heard that Aim microcaps generally have low liquidity ? Liquidity reflects volume levels, and volume levels with microcaps can often be quite low.

Hamm ; you're as naive as ever. The MMs simply dropped the bid to 1.15 in order to widen the spread - which they have done several times recently at these levels. The bigger the spread, the more they make, plus dropping the bid slightly stokes up a bit of demand if it's needed.

Plus they can buy shares on the bid and sell on the ask when the share price is fairly static, as it has been for a while. The bigger the spread, the better for them.

Like I mentioned to you before, shares move due to volume. Look at a chart with volume showing on it, and you will see that historically the volume spikes with this share tend to happen at the time of an RNS. You mentioned that other oil stocks have gone up recently, but look at what the daily volume is with say a BP vs a junior oiler like MATD.

People with NPD generally make terrible leaders, as the Americans are now finding out...😂

TBT ; 😂

Dusty ; why not go back to your high powered engineering job ? You seem to have plenty of time on your hands.

Hamm ; From me no "40p on production " pie in the sky fantasies. No believing that the company earns 100% of the current price of Brent. No working out the cost of rolling out future wells, whilst totally ignoring the expense of the non-successful drills etc etc etc.

Its' called basic common sense.

You seem to have no commercial experience, and no experience of finance or figures.

" It's just that he thought he would be able to order that Porsche much quicker than has turned out to be the case when he made the 40p prediction. " I meant.

Proquo ; if you want my my take - I believe that Hamm is a genuine LTH, but one who is extraordinarily naive about microcaps. I suspect that he probably has more than £100ks worth of shares.

Therefore he simply swings from massive over exuberance, to total despair. From telling everyone that the share price would be 40p when production started, to now telling everyone that the company could be in trouble with free cash being generated. It's just that he thought he would be able to order that Porsche much quicker than he thought when he made the 40p prediction. By some weird quirk, if my phone doesn't have a wifi signal, it shows me a MATD LSE page from early 2024, and I can see that even back then people were commenting about Hamm's constant flip flopping.

I think he simply believed his own prediction of "40p on production " and went massively overweight with this far too early on, before the company was revenue producing, and with no thought about where the money would come from for those $4m wells.

And over the weekend he was busy working out figures based on the company making 100% of the current cost of Brent, as though in all the years he has been on here he has never taken on board the concept of a PSC with the government. He also recently worked out how much it would cost for a farmee to roll out X no of wells, without thinking to take into account the cost of the non-successful drills, as though DQE were going to refund for the unsuccessful ones....