Member Info for investor33

If PC averaged around 37 drills a year whilst developing block 19, then that would cost us around 55m USD per annum to do the same in block 20. And PC probably paid half or less for that drilling.

That's why I dislike the notion of going it alone - because the average bopd in block 19 seems to be around 70 bopd it's clearly purely a numbers game. So you need scale to make it work - the success rate per drill will probably be around 60% That's why you have to drill at scale -not to dawdle along with one producing well about every 11 months like we have managed to date since the LP was granted.

Wow - touched a nerve did I corpse? I never take anything that you post on here seriously, as clearly you are nothing but a schadenfreude merchant troll, just like your friend BP.

Anyway, filtering you now. Bye.

Since when was a 4% spread a big spread ? It was 20% the other day.

Corpse living up to his ID....

Looks like Dusty missed his 1p entry point....

Thanks TBT - I will look it up.

Proquo ; maybe you should think about some top slicing from time to time ? It would then come down to what % you want to top slice with.

I also had a decent what you might call " momentum trade " on Jet2 a few years back. I just caught a trend reversing a d using just 10k made 4.5k in a few weeks. I used charts to do this, so why I wasn't doing the same for this one I can't believe.

One issue actually is trying to find decent charts which include volume for microcaps - I used City Index for main market shares, however there was nothing for MATD back then.You need a decent proper standard of chart - not the really basic ones.. I have since found that barchart.com seems to cover pretty well all microcaps, including this one. I really wish that I had used it right from the beginning, as IMO it's the only way to get a decent grasp of the ongoing price action.

Wigster ; thanks for that.

Yes, you are quite right to point out what the Progressive report was predicting back then. Frankly, it makes sobering reading - they look like fantasy figures now with hindsight....

TBT ; I like this comment ; " I don't need it to happen tomorrow, I just need it to happen. " I guess that applies to most of us.

Re traders - they don't all need to use leveraging products such as CFDs. A momentum trader may well just buy actual shares, however the timescale for exiting will remain fluid. It might be days, weeks or even years. They simply want to ride momentum, which means taking advantage of a trending market. That's why you can't really label them as either " investor" or "trader."

Proquo ; I was 25k up briefly in May 2023, and crazily didn't take it back then.

Back then I was very busy with a major project I was involved in professionally, and frankly I wasn't paying enough attention to this game. I just had a vague idea of holding the shares for the time being.

In hindsight what I should have been doing was paying close attention to a bar/candlestick chart with volume during the exploration phase. That would have told me that the temporary price spikes had been going on for years, and that the price action at that point was mainly being driven by speculators/traders.

If I had repeatedly exited on the RNS spikes in that period then by now I would easily have had a free hit. I simply wasn't focusing enough, or paying enough close attention to the price action, rather than hype about the fundamentals which was going on in that phase. Plus the long delay caused by that rogue provincial governor had a huge bearing if course. It certainly didn't help matters.

TBT ; an entry point is an entry point whether you are short term trading, momentum investing or longer term investing. Any of them can be mistimed - just saying. Someone intending to hold for years has no divine right to have picked the perfect entry price. That's why the stock market is risky for everyone.

No doubt many people, including myself, have used several entry points - mainly on the various raises. However with this you incur the risk of trying to " catch a falling knife " if the price action is long term down trending, which it so happens this one has been since at least May 2023. I think that's how lots of people have been caught out - it's very difficult to spot the " capitulation phase " at the bottom of a long downtrend.

It's too simplistic anyway to create this binary of " traders " vs " LTHs." For example, momentum traders/ investors are a kind of hybrid of both. When they time their exit will depend on the price action, often through relying on TA and charts as well as the fundamentals.

Very likely Proquo.

Just checked - still no response.

I'm just going to check - there was no reply earlier this morning. I've also been noticing that lately they don't tend to get back promptly or even at all.

That might be a positive sign hopefully -something big might be imminent, hence an imposed radio silence.

True Proquo. It was a very bitter pill to swallow at the time though.

Good comments Proquo - pretty much my thinking now as well.

I did similar to you, but decided not to throw anything more in on that last raise. There's always the risk of trying to catch a falling knife, and obviously not everyone can commit yet more funds to average down.

I think that last raise at that unbelievably low price was the last straw for some. Had the raise been at say around 1.5p then I suspect that fewer LTHs would have become so disillusioned.

TBT : ok, thanks for that. I didn't realise that he did at one time get involved with microcaps.

I will try to check out that book.

Proquo ; I agree with what you said about the 821 bopd information. I suppose due diligence would have revealed that the average extraction in block 19 is around 70 bopd. However, that figure made it sound like it was a well located in Saudi Arabia.

Hence Master's claim at the time that " the share price will be 15p on the third well. " He was working on the basis of that 821 bopd figure.

TBT : Buffett would generally never touch microcap penny shares.

By the way, we've been bouncing around between 1p support and 1.4p resistance for quite a few months now. It hits 1.4p and then comes back down again. Traders pay a lot of attention to support and resistance levels.

" Disillusionment " I meant to write.

If you look at a chart, the price action has been on a downtrend ever since May 2023 when it hit around 7p.

Since then the highs have kept on going lower - around 5p in 2024 and 2.5p last year. So we need that trend to reverse which IMO a farm out would help do. It's as though the closer it got to actual production, the more the speculative money got sucked out of the share and moved on elsewhere. That May 2024 spike when the LP was announced was the last significant move up.

On a chart, the candles have been getting smaller and smaller - almost unrecognisable from the kind of long green candles that you would typically see for years doing the exploration

phase.

Traders study charts, and in particular trend lines/ support and resistance levels etc. if they can see a trend reversing on a chart then they are far more likely to jump in and provide the volume for a strong move up.