Member Info for investor33

So today the bar/candle was a bullish one - it looks like we may be re testing the strong resistance level of 4.5p very soon. Volume today was low - just 2.25m ( vs 18.5m on the day of the last RNS release ) shares changing hands.

If we do get a spike on the next RNS, then the key resistance levels might be 7p, 9.3p and 10p. If it were to punch through 10p, then the next resistance levels are 13.5p and then 14.7p. Bear in mind that at those levels there may be weakholders who are trapped ( they bought at the top of a spike) and may sell once it hits those resistance levels, just glad to get their money back.

My guess is that if it is a positive one then it will spike to around 10p on the day of the release, and then retrace to something like 6 to 7p soon afterwards before resuming upwards more slowly.

Hamm - you said before the last RNs that ' there is no risk ' even before the District Committe had voted in favour of Matd's land access. Imagine what would have happened to the share price if they had voted the other way....

Manxkippers ; I think what you wrote are good points. Therefore I presume that the current risks are ;

1) 'Once signed ' by the District Committee as was stated in the last RNS does not provide a definite timeframe. 6 weeks have so far elapsed, yet the timeframe might turn out to be 2 or 3 months. We just don't know, and that's the slight issue. The AGM is at the end of the month, so if it is still not signed by then presumably we will be told.

2) Plan B if the governor is still obstructive might possibly result in injunctions and delays.

So right now, nobody can say for definite that plan A or B will bear fruits in the next few days or even weeks - we just don't know. I am optimistic on the whole - there has been a derisking since I first started buying back in 2019 compared to where we were before the last RNS. However, I am cautious when I hear overt ramping given that someone on here said even before the last RNS release ; ' buy now guys - there is no risk. ' I also don't believe that on a positive RNS that it will suddenly rerate to 30p or 40p. I think it might spike quickly to 10 to 12p and then pullback sharply to 7 or 8p. And then after that we will await further RNS releases.

Roxy2020 ; That sounds like a realistic kind of assessment. I tend to agree. I think that notions of 30p to 40p on issuance of the permit are a mixture of wishful thinking and overt ramping. There will definitely be a sharp pullback after the spike - it may happen on the same day, or over several days, but it will happen.

Possibly the price might be supported at the top of the spike for a day or two whilst the MM distribution phase happens. I think they keep buying near the top so as to support the price so that the high mark up retail price stays elevated for as long as possible. Once the distribution phase ends they let it drop.

Right now I assume that the MMs are accumulating in the same way that traders stock a warehouse at wholesale prices, ready to mark it up to retail price levels once a rally starts. During the sharp rally with very heavy demand, people will pay the big mark ups on the wholesale prices that the MMs bought at.

I also found this from a 2018 Reuter's article ;

"The country is challenging because of its extreme weather and a legal system and young democracy that have caused problems for international investors, including tax wrangles and contractual disputes.

Petro Matad's CEO Mike Buck said in an interview Mongolia was offering favourable terms for oil exploration and had untapped potential because, during the era of Soviet control over Mongolia, Russia had plenty of oil of its own, while China explored its reserves just over the border. "

Supersport ; I agree that if we get the permit signed that it will spike quite dramatically. Then it will definitely do a sharp pullback as trading bots take profits and LTHs who were locked in exit with a decent profit.

I see this everyday with small cap Nasdaq stocks in real time - a huge spike up on a positive news catalyst with several hundred % the usual volume, followed by a very sharp retracement, which can often be something like 50% of the spike.

The danger is to get over excited and buy in at the top of the spike whilst the likes of Hamm are bouncing around saying ' buy, buy, buy guys - you will never see these kind of prices ever again. ' People who know what they are doing will play it right if there is a big spike.

Doc 83 - ok - sorry, I see what you mean now.

Roxy2020 ; I agree with what you say. I think the problem is that some people aren't mentally detached enough to know when they are just indulging in wishful thinking, rather than sticking strictly to facts.

I guess with speculative Aim shares you do tend to get people who just think that they can get rich quick, without fully understanding exactly what they are getting involved with. I can't believe that some a few on this board have mocked anybody analysing charts for example - even though the price action in the last few years has clearly revolved around technical indicators such as support and resistance levels. And the trading bots which the city uses extensively now are all programmed to work with technical indicators.

Wos ; the' intel ' in the last RNS also stated that the governor might try to block the issue of the land access permit, and that the company would remain ' vigilant ' about this possibility. You and Hamm never mention this for some reason.

Does anybody know roughly when the drilling season tends to start on average ? It it sometime in May ?

Doc - there are still 18 days until the AGM - so I'm not sure how you calculate < 50% chance of an RNS before then.

Funny - I just found an article from Dec 2010 which read as follows ;

"Petro Matad also updated investors on its analysis of the highly successful 2010 drilling programme, which found oil in three successive exploration holes (DT-1 to DT-3).

The success of these three wells propelled the company to become one of the most followed AIM-listed explorers in the second half of 2010.

Its shares experienced a massive rally from 45 pence at the start of drilling to a new high at 199 pence back in October. "

Growmorecash ; given that you could have made a fortune in the last few years simply buying and selling MATD off support and resistance levels, keep the sarcastic emojis to yourself please. I know some people never look at charts ( they like to call themselves ' investors ' ) but to me that's like playing tennis and refusing to ever learn how to do backhand shots - only forehands. Fundamental analysis and technical analysis compliment each other actually if you have ever bothered to learn a bit about charts and technical analysis .

There's a strong resistance level at 4.5p which has been touched and rejected from several times since 27/12/23. If it punches through this on high volume then the next resistance levels are ; 5.2p, 5.6p, 6.5p and 7.1p.

Volume today was 5.68m compared to 3.75m yesterday.

Good luck Thornogson and to all the LTHs, including myself ! Hopefully it will work out well for all of us, and our loyalty will not prove to have been misplaced.

Good luck to the short term traders as well - we all make or choices about strategy, and short term trading or LT investing are equally valid if you can make either work.

Professional ;

"clear and wise to learn before really dive in deep with trading. Good luck "

Thanks for that.

Yes, let's see how it plays out. I take it that if there is a raise before the LP is done and dusted then you will be jumping in ? For my part I'm pretty optimistic, yet at the same time extremely wary of this governor and the lack of transparency in his motives.

Roxy2020 ; I agree. I think that optimism can make people underestimate what the business environment is like in Mongolia. I mean is there any transparency as to why this governor is so set against Matd ? Not at all it would seem.

Many Western ex Soviet countries have managed to reform since the early 90s, but I get the impression that Mongolia has still not been able to shake off sclerotic Soviet type bureaucracy, and the corruption which tends to go with it.

Overall despite what I wrote I still feel fairly optimistic, and the share price is holding up reasonably well despite 6 weeks having elapsed since the last RNS. However, I am always on guard as regards the Mongolian business environment - historically something new has always come up to block Matd's path.

Professional ; that's a valid question. The answer is that I haven't just jumped in. I have done scalp trading on various indices quite a few times in the past. However, sclap trading Nasdaq small caps is a different thing, so I've been studying since the turn of the year and monitoring in real time live charts for quite a few weeks now. I will be making a start quite soon - but there's quite a lot to learn -different types of technical indicators, chart patterns, various factors which impact on low cap US stocks, stock scanning etc. I'm also looking at swing trading some US stocks using my SIPP, which currently has quite a bit of it tied up with Matd as a LTH.

I intend to sell off a chunk of Matd if we get a positive RNS at hopefully somewhere between 8 t 10p with a bit of luck, and then hold on with the rest to see what happens thereafter.

One book which I recently read suggested that with small cap mining stocks it's best to sell your initial investment if the price shoots up so that you are left only risking your profit. If I had used that principle over the last few years my Matd investment would currently be risk free apart from the profit that had been made. That makes sense to me. The book mentions that with small cap mining or biotech stocks there is a massive risk of share dilution, as it's hard for companies without assets to borrow.

@Doc83 ; obviously we have to keep in mind the worst possible near term scenario, and not be taken in by people like Hamm saying typically ' it's a multi-bagger from here guys. It can only go one way. Jump in now - as these prices wont last much longer guys. ' Hamm seems to think that by uber ramping on here he can influence the share price.

For me, a possible worst case scenario would be the next RNS stating that the LP issuance is still a work in progress as unfortunately Matd has had to deal with the governor raising some formal objections which the local planning authorities are currently considering and addressing. Therefore it has been decided that whilst this is being sorted out it would be prudent for the company to raise capital through a raise at 2.8p per share. Whilst we much appreciate our LTHs and their loyalty, our funding will only last until mid July, therefore we are sure that our LTHs will fully understand and fully endorse this raise.

Guyswonga74 ; the fact that it was specifically mentioned in the RNS that the governor might try to block the issue of the LP is reason enough to believe that this is a significant risk. He's tried to frustate MATD every step of the way for reasons known only to him.

However , without positive news the factor which throttles the share price is lack of volume - without volume it isn't going anywhere. Every single day I watch Nasdaq small caps move up on rea time charts several 100% on volume 4 or 5 times the normal average because there has been a news catalyst. There's no doubt in my mind that shorter term trading of fast moving small cap US stocks is far superior to long term investment in fairly speculative Aim stocks. It's far less risky too if scalping in short time frames. Some of these very small float US stocks can go up 1000% in a day - I've seen it happen. And we wait years on here with Matd waiting for a multi bagger, despite the atrocious business environment which prevails in Mongolia.

Once I have finished with MATD that's what I intend to do - but for now I am a LTH who has ( maybe stupidly ) held for several years.

Ibiza28 ; no, not many are buying this share at the moment, and that's been the case in between RNS releases throughout the history of the share price. That's because if you look at charts with volume going back years, the volume generally only shoots up when news happens.So, on the last RNS daily volume peaked at 18.5m shares, whereas yesterday 3.75m shares changed hands.

As I keep saying, when an RNS is released it triggers the trading desk algo trading bots, so volume immediately shoots up automatically. This recent drift lower has been on low volume. with the highest volume of 4.9m being the day before the tax year ended.

WOS ; people are right to still have concerns about the LP paperwork - it did state in the last RNS that the governor might try to interefere with it being issued, and that therefore they would ' remain vigilant ' It's not correct to say that it's a done deal, with no risk at this stage. I remember Hamm stating even before the last RNS was released that ' there is no risk ' so I think people need to be careful, and stick to the facts.

Let's face it, the only predictable thing in all these years of the MATD saga is that with each turn some new obstruction has emerged. Mongolia is an extremely difficult place to do business, as the bureaucracy is still rooted in the Soviet era...

Master82 ; when an RNS is released the algo trading bots kick in. This is how a lot of short term trading is done these days. They are programmed to react to RNS news buying going long or short depending on how the news is analysed. If £80k is dumped it's because the trading bot has made its profit and exited most likely.

Right now there is a strong resistance level at 4.5p, which has been touched and rejected several times in the last few months. That's because trading bots are programmed to act on support and resistance levels.

Non professional ; You wrote ; " If yes hé indeed is smart ;) all true but very very basic stuff... probably hé sold the course by saying hé will share his secrets? "

I would hazard another guess that you knew nothing about this. If you did, then it makes no sense at all to short a volatile micro cap stock such as Matd with a significant RNS likely to land any day. If the price moves up sharply when the trading bots are triggered, and the MMs then sharply pull their orders on the ask, then the price levels sitting in the level 2 order book on the ask will have large gaps between the levels, meaning that the price can move up extremely quickly, as it has done in the past. A classic bear squueze in other words.

Some traders shorting on Nasdaq small caps have lost huge amounts of money through being caught in a sudden bear squeeze on news releases. That's why if I traded on Nasdaq I would never short.

And even with stops in place when shorting there can be massive slippage, plus even on a sharp down move, just before it happens the MMs will try and take out the stops of those going short - they can see them. It works in reverse of course. Stops on Aim are dangerous.

Interesting to note that as of the 19th March of this year, City Index have added a futures contract chart for Matd. It's interesting now to be able to monitor the price action in real time, and to be able to use plenty of technical indicators on the chart. It's a shame it wasn't started sooner.

Of course you can short as well with this if you like. Non professional take note....