A theory for the weekend12 Oct 2018 21:44
I mentioned Mr K recently and questioned if he’d sit by and watch someone take us out cheaply given his history with the company.
In the June 2016 accounts he had 78m shares representing 35% of the company. Based on the latest shareholder analysis he has 84m shares representing less than 10% of the holding.
He hasn’t reduced his holding but it’s fallen by over 2/3rds of the overall % holdings.
He is presumably behind the $1m loan facility should it be needed. If he said he’d supply this on an equity basis instead this would be around 83m shares at the current price, doubling his holding in one go.
The company may have put off a take over offer in January. Someone could put in a lowball offer now given the current share price but it probably wouldn’t be any better than that offered in January so probably would be declined by the board. If anyone was accumulating without the company’s ‘agreement’ I can’t believe the company wouldn’t have a strategy for blocking a cheap take over. This could be through a combination of Mr K, MyPay and the director holdings, with or without Atlas support.
The link from January posted earlier referred to talks with Tencent of an investment/partnering nature. It would appear they have been working on this for the last nine months, with the first official sign being the WeChat deal. If they were going to buy the company why announce that beforehand?
I would therefore suggest it will be a strategic investment/JV rather than take over. I think this would be better for true believers given the revenue potential and growth we could see in time (including growth in the SP).
When news lands and the SP climbs the warrants may kick in. If so, additional funds will be provided to the company so further raises will be delayed if needed at all.
Others have made parallels with Tern and the fundraising that took place there. When I first noticed Tern it was around 7p and the lowpoint because of the fundraising was around 2p. We all know where it went after that.
We are feeling pain now but the fundamentals remain, the board has been strengthened, we have a WeChat deal and more good news should be just round the corner.
I strongly believe we are onto a winner here and more and more will become apparent as the days and weeks tick by. Good luck with what you decide to do while we wait.
IMO