Member Info for InTooDeep999

Good morning london_

It was my post over on ADVFN. 38.5p warrants should expire tomorrow. 2nd drawdown of $5m will be happening on/around tomorrow.

Re equipement purchases: From the RNS from 19.3.24, "The Company will continue to source additional pre-owned equipment in order to further improve the Project economics. However, Phoenix does not intend to update the market on all future equipment purchases, unless they materially affect the Project's economics.". So, I don't think we are going to hear much via an RNS re these.

Re PFS: my understanding is that a PFS is, amongst other reasons, to secure finance. Finance for building the mine is now secured. From reports from some who attended the AGM, I think we will receive an economic analysis instead, prepared to the same exact standard as the PFS would have been.

If you look on the NIU Invest website, and look at their news release from 15.5.24, you will find the following: "Whilst the company is making strong operational progress in multiple exploration projects, the reserves of Empire Open-Pit Mine alone are projected to generate revenues of approximately USD 550 million and EBITDA of approximately USD 250 million over its expected mine life of around 8 years. These EBITDA calculations have been performed by NIU using publicly available information, adhering to market standard assumptions and industry comparisons."

As I posted over on ADVFN, on 27.6.24 @ 07:40, point 3, a new approach to communication is about to be launched. Much of the information re equipement etc will likely be via the expected new website/Investor Hub, with a Q/A section that will be kept up to date much more frequently than the current out-of-date website.

I believe the mine build will be/is progressing at pace, and Ryan clearly knows exactly what needs done and when. I'm expecting at some point in late summer/early autumn that we will hear that the permit application will have been re-submitted.

Read the NIU Invest news referred to above from 15. 5.24. I am convinced (though few others are!) that we will hear something about M&A. One of the main drivers will be for Phoenix to get into production as soon as possible, possibly before Empire. From the news post mentioned above, this is important, IMO: "Simultaneously, we are engaged in active negotiations for other promising deals to expand our portfolio further. The allocated funds will be used to accelerate the pre-mining operations of Empire Open-Pit Mine as well as fuel non-organic growth opportunities in the copper mining sphere."

FWIW, it's my further buy of 30,000 @ 19.9p yesterday. I could not believe the opportunity. Of course, I said the same thing at 40p. DYOR, as always. Have a great weekend!

The answer to this question is unknown to us PIs. IMO, FWIW, it is unlikely the exercise window/price will be changed. They should lapse.

Https://x.com/donaldpond6/status/1803478643861004542?s=52&t=2sykSm6indEO7XIqtVce4Q

Posted on Telegram just now.

I'm not a mining expert, but I think I understand this share/company well. The open pit is too small a project on it's own for a major (I don't know about mid-tier) to be interested in. But it is cheap CAPEXwise and complexity-wise. And, it will throw of cash. How much? See Caner's assessment re EBITDA on their LinkedIn.

Organic growth: get the open pit into production, and prove up the deep sulphides +/- surrounding near mines (RS etc). Then it is a different beast, with a hint of Tungsten porphyry below. With cash available, proving up sulphides might be quicker than folk think. Then a buyout is likely. But focus is on getting Empire into production for now. Other work streams in parallel, as per information in the RNSs this quarter.

Inorganic Growth: lots of smaller producing mines in the western USA. For a variety of reasons, some need cash/expertise, both of which PXC now have via Messers SD/RM respectively. This is reasoned speculation on my part, but likely.

M&A are highly likely to be on the cards at some point. I'm meaning PXC doing the acquiring. When Mr Caner stood up at the AGM, he spoke of supporting Phoenix's growth, both organic and inorganic. Private Equity invests for many multiples, and rapidly. Whilst the route to production at Empire is reasonably clear, it was always just a 'starter'. The main course will be sulphides +/- M&A. Both are unlocked by Empire free cash flow (look at the NIU Invest website) and Caner himself.

As MTSparky mentions, we are going to have significantly more coms from Phoenix shortly. Watch this space.

DYOR.

Http://bit.ly/3VsnCAi

PXC/RW/bond mention on pages 9 & 10.

For holders here, and those considering holding here, please see the AGM notes below that I re-posted from Telegram. They contain facts and opinion from an experienced investor in PXC who bothered to attend the AGM. I have corroborated the AGM account with at least 2 others who attended.

As for Ellngles? Well, you are entitled to your opinion. As PXC have no permit, I'll take it that you will have no further interest in PXC.

Part 3:

What news flow can we expect for the rest of the year?

Financing is now in place, so all focus is now on permits and building the mine. These things can mostly take place in parrallel.

News will be mostly internal milestones. PFS, POO submission, Equipment purchase, construction phases, equipment arrival etc.

We are now focused on mine construction, and on the path to being a producer.

 

Summer will see a number of broker notes and analysis released, which should give a fair value to the assets. Today’s price is not a fair valuation.

 

What will be the next phase after the oxides?

Drilling will take place across the various assets (Navarre, RS etc), but all the focus is currently on Empire.

 

First production?

Late ’25, early ’26. It’s all based on permit approval now.

 

Questions were also asked regarding financial valuations, extraction processes etc, but nobody was in a position to fully answer these questions publicly. We need to wait for the PFS.

 

Key takeways

Firstly, AGM’s are worh going to. Reading this report gives you an insight into what was discussed, but being in the room, looking people in the eyes, reading body language, and asking direct questions are invaluable.,

 

Secondly, listening to Cevdet’s intentions gave a huge degree of comfort. He is committed to the green revolution, and is committed to PXC. With 25% of the company, he wants this to succeecd, and is giving the baord his full support to achieve this.

 

Lastly, we are now on the path to production. The major finance hurdle has been overcome, and we have a strong shareholder base to provide stability going forward. A lot of work has gone into the P.O.O, sustainability, relationship-building, and analysis. This hard work is about to pay off for all of us, and whatever your view, PXC will be a producer of metals within the next 18 months.

 

 

It would be great to hear the views of other attendees.

See you all there next year,

Part 2:

Q&A.

There was an engaging Q&A that followed the AGM formalities.

There were some questions that were asked that couldn’t be answered, others were answered with a passion. Academy mentioned this in his earlier post.

 

Some noteworthy questions included:

How long until we will start to target the sulphides?

This is hard to determine. We will basically mine the oxides first, and then the bottom of the pit will form the top of the sulphide mining area. The sulphides are still an unknown from a resource persoective, but it’s clear to all that there is mineralisation down there, but we will come to it in due course. All focus is on the oxides right now.

 

NGO’s and the permitting process – What impact will the NGO’s have on permitting?

Ryan speaks to various NGO’s on a weekly basis, and has been very transparent with the process we are going to follow. There are no water issues, it’s an old mining town, and on brownfield ground. If Empire cannot get permitted then nothing will. But that’s not to say that thre NGO’s won’t make noise.

It’s similar for residents. Some are for, some are against. But we are focussed on an environmentally friendly, community friendly process that works for all.

 

Are the directors still locked out from trading?

Per the Nomad, yes, directors are unable to trade right now (likely owing to the PFS).

 

When will the Plan of Operation be submitted for approval?

Ryan stated September. But this is Ryan-time, which is usually pesimistic. Summer submission most likely. The company will be given visibility of likely decision way ahead of the actiual deciosn. Likey by 3 months or more.

 

When will Konnex have to contribute or dilute?

This is a fluiod situation, and no hard date is in place. The relationship remains friendly, and it’s highly likely that they will find the money for their share of ther funding.

 

Is M&A likely?

Refer back to Cevdet Caner’s comments from earlier.

 

Are we still talking to other Institutions / investors?

Numerous conversations are taking place all the time. ESG funds, other financers, even old financers that haven’t gone away.

We can issue up to $300m in bonds, so there should always be money available if needed.

 

Reproduced with the explicit consent of the Telegram poster. In several bits. Enjoy the journey!

Notes from the AGM

 

The following is a personal summary of the 2024 AGM. 

 

Attendance:

There were 70+ shareholders in attendance, including a number of familiar names from Telegram. Notable guest attendee included Cevdet Caner. 

Most of the early-investing shareholders were in attendance.

Open. 

AGM opened with voting on resolutions. All resolutions passed as per RNS. 

 

Cevdet Caner. 

Mr Caner attended the AGM, and was invited to give comments on the recent fundraising, and his investment vision. 

NUI have been in discussions with PXC for over 12 months, and a friendly relationship has been developed. 

PXC is NUI’s first foray into critical metals, but certainly not the last. In fact there is an investment in the pipeline that will be announced imminently. This backs up their commitment to metals, and PXC in particular.

PXC is a long-term relationship, and he is very supportive of the Board, and the direction they are taking the company. He isn’t seeking a seat on the board as he trusts the management stewardship. 

 

He realises China’s dominance, and wants there to be western champions. Phoenix fits this mould. 

He’s fully behind us, and supports any other “strategic investment” that needs to be made to underpin the strategy. This, to me, hinted at M&A.

He realises there is room for consolidation in this space, and sees PXC in the right place at the right time for this.

 

Other attendees had more time with Cevdet than I did, so will be able to give their own views of conversations outside of the AGM formalities. 

But anyone doubting NUI’s intentions is misguided, in my belief. 

He even made comment of how the company needs to look to the “next generation of investors”, and tailor the PR and messaging accordingly. 

He’s in this for the long haul. 

 

Posted on Telegram from someone at the AGM:

Positive AGM.

All resolutions passed, Mr Caner reaffirmed his long-term commitment to the company and the green metal revolution in general, and is supportive of the directors and the vision. He trusts the team and doesn’t want a seat on the board.

Probably 70+ in attendance, so I’m sure there will be lots of notes to follow.

Agree re thanks market. Already overweight here. Added a further 30,000 shares in the mid 19s. At some point a large amount of the free float must be tucked away in sticky paws. Should be a fantastic AGM. I wonder if there might be a special guest speaker? (pure speculation, but educated speculation!). I would never have believed sub 20 (or sub 40!) was likely post finance. DYOR.

A takeover is a definitive possibility. However, it will not be for many years. The open pit needs to be brought into production (likely late 2025); the deep sulphides needs explored (bond money and cash from the open pit); the nearby resources (including Red Star) need proven up. And then there is a likelyTungsten porphyry.

How long is many years? I did speak with Richard Wilkins on a different matter about 8 months ago. He mentioned then that he felt it might take 5 years to reach maximum shareholder returns. He also mentioned that a maiden dividend would be paid within a year or so of production from Empire: so, there should be some spoonfuls of jam 'shortly' whilst the big pot of jam is being cooked up. Empire open pit on it's too small for a major to be interested in at the moment is my understanding from speaking with those more experienced is such matters.

(A bit of fun after the long winter 🙂)

RW a visionary, innovative and bold,

Architect of success, crafting plans half told,

Of copper bonds he swore would be sold,

Few dared to dream; minimal dilution was key,

Of a future where Phoenix would finally fly free.

An impromptu raise at eleven-point-five,

The share price took an instant 20% dive,

By the skin of its teeth, it stopped short of nine,

How we did curse, boy, how we did whine,

Copper and gold surged, 'We'll never build that mine!'

With a pit of wealth at its core,

Empire's production is destined to soar,

Projects will emerge, like Red Stars at night,

Deep sulphides and elephants below shining bright.

It was bonds or bust,

In Richard we trust,

Nudge nudge, wink wink,...let's have a peek,

At what you've discovered at Navarre Creek!

I should add that there appear to be broadly 2 camps. Those that believe the copper bonds will close, and those that don't, or are just disillusioned by the protracted process. I'm in the 1st group.

No, it's a 'copper bond'. The bond holder gets paid a variable interest rate. A minimum of 8.5% when copper is $3.60. A maximum of 20%. Each 10c rise, or part thereof, the interest rises by 0.15%. Bonds are not convertible. The bondholder will get some equity, but it is not known how much.

The 'not quite' in my post is NOT a reply to ScottJ - for clarity. We just posted at more or less the same time. 🙂

Not quite. They had applied for a license, and then deliberately withdrew it: stated reason was to alter the processes by which metal(s) might be recovered. The plan is to resubmit the application action this summer, and build the mine (90% odd on patented land, no license required) in parallel to the application progressing.

Others may, but I don't anticipate major hurdles with the license application. Right now, it's all about the bonds.

Nope. End Q1/early Q2.

Paul (DP) posted on Telegram on 25.4.24:

"We are aiming to get a PFS out asap. In the event that we cannot finalise the whole thing we will certainly publish a resource statement and an economic analysis (which are the key parts of the PFS) in the next week or so. We are aiming for an AGM on 22 May but that is not yet confirmed. We expect to be in a position to talk freely about both the resource and our plans to fund, develop and profit from it, at the AGM."

Make of that what you will. I remain positively positive. 🙂

For those that want to know, Paul de Gruchy posted the following on TG last night, in response to being asked.

"It is likely to be on 22nd May but to be confirmed. There won’t be a virtual element but I’m sure there will be plenty of reports back"