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I agree that it seems some of the metrics used to record COVID deaths do seem unsophisticated at best. If my understanding is correct, then someone who has tested positive for CV19 before fully recovering then dies in an unrelated car accident 28 days later will subsequently have their death attributed to CV19.
Nor should we neglect the ‘secondary’ deaths of people who aren’t receiving treatment for existing non CV related conditions. An outpatient nurse speaking on the BBC this morning was highlighting that many people, particularly the elderly, were petrified to go to hospital and were even deliberately staying away out of sympathy with NHS staff who they believe are overloaded with work and don’t have the time to deal with their perceived ‘trivial’ ailments.
It’s a desperately sad situation and the cost to these ‘secondary’ COVID victims will perhaps never be fully known.
Seadog, don't think the press are bound by NDA's. Any half decent journalist could read the company presentation or even MM's updates and work out that herein lies a potential 'game changing' solution to the issue that he/she has probably been writing about incessantly for the last 8 months. Where are those journalists?
Just listened to radio 5 live phone in and whilst the radio silence and falling SP causes understandable anxiety, just listening to front-line nurses and others calling the phone-in should remind us all that pressure is building unremittingly for the AVCT solution. The country is heading downhill fast economically and societal pressure is building on the government due to lack of any clear way out of the mess. Even Starmer has now broken ranks and is contesting the Governments policies.
The frustrating (and bizarre) thing to my mind is the lack of dialogue relating to the 'Avacta' solution within the general public/press? It sometimes feels that the members of this BB the only ones with any clue what benefits our test can bring?. The press should be all over this applying unbearable pressure to Hancack/Condor/Falcon et al to get this approved and distributed.
Agreed that a large proportion of the population will avoid testing a) because they feel fine and b) because they simply don’t want to contemplate the upheaval to their lives of a positive test result. Far easier to bury your head in the sand and carry on.
It will have to become mandatory to have a positive test result before normal life can resume travel, work, leisure.
A massive undertaking for govt and private to install a testing network all linked to a tracking system, however the upside for AVCT is that should ours be the test of choice then the numbers required will be mind blowing.
Myles, thank you for the update. I found it incredibly helpful and condensed months of reading into one distilled document. It clearly took a great deal of time and effort to compile and I for one am very grateful. I look forward to part 2 and to use an old saying ... ‘don’t let the buggers grind you down’ thanks again.
The NHS employ circa 1.4 million staff so assuming two tests per week that's 2.8 million tests per week. As of Sun 11th Oct 285,015 PCR tests were carried out, so current weekly testing capacity running at circa 2 million.
If the headline is correct then it would appear that we don't currently have the capacity to test the NHS let alone the rest of us.
Huge testing vacuum.
The dilemma you have Cooky, as do we all, is that once sounding too good to be true converts to actually being too good to be true you won't be able to pick up the shares for less than £2.
However respectable we believe it to be, buying and selling shares is a form of gambling. Any form of gambling carries risk but when you are backing the favourite in a race where even the last placed runner will be rewarded with huge contracts then that risk is somewhat mitigated.
Hi Cooky
I'm relatively new to investing, and came across Avacta via a mutual contact (I live very close to Wetherby). Intrigued, I have spent many hours researching and as Richob points out, there are several incredibly informative posters on here ( would single out Chiron as being particularly knowledgeable). My conclusions, speaking as a novice PI, yet someone with an economics degree and someone that has run many businesses over a 40 year career is as follows:
1. It is absolutely clear that there is unprecedented global demand for a solution to Covid19
2. Avacta have developed the technology to deliver a significant proportion of this solution
3. The Avacta solution (identifying infectiousness as opposed to infected) increasingly appears to be the 'holy grail' of the solution.
3. Avacta also have several other 'products' in development that can make life changing differences to cancer patients
4. At the moment Avacta are valued at over £400m and they have yet to bring a product to market. This valuation is based almost entirely on shareholder sentiment and conviction to the great work being undertaken.
5. You don't need to be as intelligent as some of the posters on here to work out that once they are able to bring any one or multiples of their products to market the share price will only go in one direction
6. Simple micro economic theory tells us that when demand outstrips supply, price rises, this theory is compounded when lack of alternatives exist (and if you read this board long enough, people will explain how the Avacta technology is almost peerless)
Whether you are investing for holistic reasons or just to make a quick buck (I note that you mention your SIPP so assume planning until you are at least 55) then Avacta IMO represents a once in a lifetime opportunity to not only support a fantastic company but hopefully secure your own financial future.
There are caveats, which in my opinion are related to their ability to scale up manufacturing and tech transfer to meet demand.
This is a company that has never before supplied in bulk and their immediate opportunity (and challenge) is exactly that, can they do it? we don't yet know and because we don't know is why the share is still bouncing around at under £2. Once they prove their ability to meet the demand and importantly, do so at a margin, then this company will be worth significantly more than today's valuation (or tomorrows or next weeks or whatever it bounces around at until we have contracts and revenues)
Simple strategy here in my opinion and one you will read regularly from other posters .. BUY and HOLD.
Good luck
Adding to benben's comments and using his notional £14.4bn cost, I would expect this to be a fraction of the ongoing cost of the collapsing UK economy (BBC reporting today an additional 500,000 out of work at the end of Oct). I would also assume that the existing drive thru/swab/lab/track and trace testing regime to be incredibly expensive. Should the performance and benefits prove to be as we believe they will then even at £10 each they will represent the bargain of the century. I really can't see a viable alternative.
Great post urbansea and perhaps we can also leverage the technology with the Europeans to strengthen our Brexit negotiations and bring that nightmare to a conclusion
Sentiment by definition is a view or an opinion, I feel there is a lot more substance driving the share price than the views of a few shareholders.
Reading this board is often encouraging and depressing in equal measures. The BBC is today reporting that the auto industry is in meltdown to add to the collapse of our aero industry and entertainment industry etc etc. To combat this they have today announced £100's of millions to be made available for training jobseekers. I'm guessing that this money will be spent on training pilots how to drive Amazon vans? Shuffling deckchairs springs to mind.
I sometimes feel that the people on this board and the Avacta management are the only ones who truly understand the way out of this nightmare and it's not handing over tax payers money to private 'training' companies.
I'm sure most of us know a damn sight more about Avacta and its potential than the majority of our elected representatives. I often feel that it mimics the fable of the emperors new clothes and we are the only ones who can see the solution whilst everyone else is looking the other way (lab testing & vaccine).
Most of us have the utmost respect for Al and the Avacta team and whilst many of us would unashamedly admit that we are here only to make money, I do think some recognition and credit should be given to the early investors for providing Al with the money to help dig the country (and potentially the world) out of the very very deep ****hole we are now in.
Sorry, should've said ..well said RichKen not Jim
Well said Jim, I think it was Friday evening that this board sank to an all time low, much better today.
Jimarillo, you make a few broad statements 'Do you want to be vaccinated with a dodgy untested vaccine' and 'You are all, blind and complicit'.
Perhaps you are just having a lunchtime fish?? but I will bite. I think most would agree that the very fact that we haven't yet achieved a vaccination is specifically because of the extensive testing required. As to the fact that we are blind and complicit, I'm guessing that you are referring to some bizarre conspiracy theory, perhaps originated by the same people that told us we caught CV19 in the first place from 5G masts?
This board has some incredible informative and considered posters and if therefore you have any evidence that suggests we are 'blind and complicit' within some vaccination 'conspiracy' please elaborate and share.