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The significance of 888 - for those old enough to remember...
Nick Leeson and Barings Bank with his famous 888 account - Chinese symbol for fortune apparently.
Not so sure ITT..please check in the trades section of LSE - excerpts posted below. Posting the whole section of trades would have made it more difficult to point out what I am saying.
873k figures three times in the trades with one reversal. So still showing as a buy.
888k trade has been "pulled".
Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
15-Jan-20 16:00:31 3.40 873,350 Buy* 3.20 3.40 29.69k O
15-Jan-20 16:00:31 3.40 -888,063 Buy* 3.20 3.40 -30.19k O
15-Jan-20 16:00:31 3.40 -873,350 Unknown* 0.00 0.00 -29.69k O
15-Jan-20 16:00:31 3.40 873,350 Buy* 3.00 3.20 29.69k O
Your thoughts ?
Morning Vascular,
Please go back to my posts over the last week or so.
I have been asking the very same questions that you have asked and I have my theories as to why the share price has not keep pace with developments.
That is why I used the terminology of "anomalous deviation" - from expected trajectory of SP.
Let's see what the market makes of all this over the next few weeks or so...
All in good time - patience strong :)
Good morning Thalamus !
Welcome on board :)
Your timing seems perfect, if yesterday's news from India (Rs. 2.86 trillion potential investment) is anything to go by.
I have been thinking about this Rs.2.86 Trillion and that equates to about £31 Billion (Rs.92 = £1GBP) according to the internet.
What CYAN have stated in past Investor Presentations is that Aggregate Technical & Commercial (AT&C) Losses in India is in the region of about $32 Billion A YEAR. Now if you look at this massive Rs. 2.86 Trillion / £ 31 Billion number in that context - it makes eminent sense and essentially a "no brainer" to invest £31 Billion upfront - as this investment will pay for itself in a couple/few years, if makes a big dent in the reduction of AT&C losses - which seems to be what the Livemint article says is the main purpose.
I am of the view, that our Indore project (over 100k smart meter installations) which is the largest in India and a Reference site / Centre of Excellence has demonstrated that installing smart meters with "CYAN Inside" has increased revenue collection in the region of 25% or thereabouts from memory. This information was presented at last years Investor Evening. Check with CYAN, if you need to.
Maybe I am being over enthusiastic in thinking that the evidence and results from Indore re +25% revenue collection for utilities in Indore may have led EESL to think again. This could have led to the invitation to the IntelliSmart JV and the conference in November 2019. The Indian Govt after trying out a number of different models/partners/technologies, think that they have hit upon an ideal hardware + technical solution, which had so far evaded them. This is my opinion.
Also why the "planted leak " from the Budget proposal - Electrama Conference is BEFORE the Feb budget from LTIs post. So I would read it as a "coded message" to the Electricity Sector, that be ambitious in your forward planning and investment, as the Govt. is going to commit "helicopter money" in this sector. They don't want such an immense networking opportunity to be wasted. Such a massive rollout, in such a short time to have some prospect of working out will only come about, if the Govt is able to offer financial measures and incentives to rapidly increase capacity - across the whole Electricity sector including smart meters. All my opinion and speculation.
Even if out of this potential £31 Billion, we are told about, 50% is allocated to Smart Metering Roll Out, then we are looking at £15 Billion for starters in this segment of the whole Electricity Infrastructure project in India. And of course, to remind ourselves, that our OEM partnership is with the 3 of largest meter manufacturer in India who control about 50% of this market share.
So we are potentially in play for about £7.5 Billion over the next few/several years - a huge number, but not an unreasonable extrapolation in my mind or opinion, but I am sure you and others will form their own
Yes trading could get interesting....particularly if you are on the wrong side of the sentiment tomorrow !!
If there is a RNS to boot then even better.
Let's see what happens !
Good luck :)
Hi Tony.s
Could it be that the £29.6k buy trade is reversing the 923k sale on the 13th afternoon ? The numbers are not too far apart in my reckoning. Or shorts being covered on the back of cosmic scale figures ?
Eitherway it's getting even more interesting !
Market seems to like the indian news possibly :)
Tony.s,
Honestly, I am struggling to comprehend the scale of this Indian Rs. 2.86 Trillion number. Even for the sake of forex conversion simplicity, if we take £1 = Rs 100, we are still talking about numbers on an astronomical scale.
On the other hand, it is one of largest economies in the world, either ranked 5 or 6 according to which source and methodology to calculate GDP you rely on and the second most populous country in the world with circa 1.2 billion people.
And the country is not far off the geographic size of Europe....
If this funding turns out to be true and announced in the Indian budget....all bets are off as I see it !
The figure is truly huge and the indicated time frames are tight- a seismic shift ? Is this the step change from the glacial pace that is on us ? Looks like a planned and placed "budget leak" from Indian Govt in a publication.
Very interesting....
https://www.livemint.com/budget/expectations/budget-may-announce-2-86-trillion-electricity-distribution-scheme-11579026978411.html
Good morning Jakeandelwood,
Further to your query - my thoughts and ramblings - a collation of material from various sources, rns, research notes, agms, investor meets, background research, speaking to people in the sector etc. And based on my interpretation of the same - so my opinion basically. For investments, I work on the big picture, so there may be recall bias/ failing memory to historical stuff, dates, numbers etc. E&OE.
DoI: I am a PI with a decent stake - as with any LTH, I am very much in the red with my investment. I am also an optimist and don't see the company going to the wall .
Technology: Various iterations and products over the years, but I believe that RF Mesh tech is now becoming a mainstream tech in India for smart metering. Our hardware is called a Network Integration Card (NIC) which is made of electronic components + some embedded software ( this is called firmware in the trade). Our components are sourced from Taiwan and our NIC cards are made in India (for India) and for the Nordics, in one of the countries there. Our NIC manufacturer is Smryna - a California based company with operations in India. Quality of our NIC is very good, with very high reliability. We haven't got to 6 Sigma yet with NIC - but no quality or failure issues on scale. The OEM has the ability to scale up production - so roll out bottlenecks because of supply issues, is unlikely. Process is largely automated.
The next stage is integration and tuning of the NIC card to the specific electricity meter - there is unique and the placement/siting of the antenna within the meter has to be individually done.
We are OEM NIC to 3 of the biggest meter manufacturers in India - Genus, L&T, HPL which control over 50% of the Indian meter market - after experimenting with various tech/suppliers for comparable tech. This basically means we have a "Cyan inside" - and have 3 bites at every tender that the big 3 choose to bid in India.
India has an ambition to roll out 230-250 million smart meters eventually - they keep harping on that this will happen in 3-4 years. I am working on a 10+ years timeframe for this rollout.
The tendering process has gone through a steep learning curve. Lessons appear to have been learned both by the authorities and us as a company. We are not bidding blind - the impression I get is that we are bidding for the tenders have funding clarity in the main and hence the I anticipate the "conversion rate" to be high. The pilots are now moving into the 10s of thousands, whereas in the past it has been 1500, 3000 etc. So immediately, we are seeing a step change in procurement and implementation confidence. Once we are in an implementation area, I get the impression that further rollouts will be ours to lose. And of course the stickiness of our NIC - once in, it'll stay in unless the meter is changed. The govt can't be changing meters frequently, due to cost and logistics. Sorry running out of time and characters to type - more later.
Good evening Jakeandelwood,
My apologies for not replying earlier and I have not forgotten ! I hope to post later tonight or early tomorrow morning my thoughts on the company (as requested by you). I imagine a lot of it could be repetition, but happy to share my views.
Hope that is okay ?
Kind regards :)
Good afternoon LTI and Tonyj,
I have put these contracts in deep freeze. As I see no real prospect of these huge Ukraine/Bangladesh contracts coming off anytime in the foreseeable future.
In terms of BI, the way I read the situation is that BI need to bag a contract somewhere in the world, only then are they going to use our tech (and more importantly only then CYAN will see some real revenue I imagine.
Any outcome better than this, would be a huge bonus :)
In fairness, even most/all the Big Four (PWC, EY, KPMG, Deloitte) have had their auditing and accounts shenanigans !
and involving the likes of Patisserie Valerie, BHS, Sports Direct, Tesco, Carillion etc.
If those are the benchmarks, then for the sake of consistency, it would be unfair for RSM to be an outlier ?
Thanks ITT for your take on things.
On matters of investment, I work from a broad, "big picture" approach, so I don't sweat the numbers to the degree that some/others like.
I think that the reduced operating expenses (under £400K) per month, coupled with legacy revenues (not much), increasing revenues from India (delayed revenues from contracts announced from circa Sep/Oct 2018), Nordic contracts announced last year, upfront advance payments like $400k dollars from Thailand announced recently, soft financial terms with partners/vendors, HMRC R&D tax credits etc will keep our heads above water in the near future - 3-6 months in my opinion. Notwithstanding bridging/working capital loans that can be availed - maybe at a LIBOR + premium% given our risk profile. And though not ideal, no one who owns 20% of the company will want to see it go to the wall and therefore the funding backstop (basically a cap in hand loan without the option to convert to CYAN shares) from highly invested shareholders could be another option.
I think some solid senior management buying will bolster SP confidence, but their hands could be tied due to being in a closed period.
So in my opinion, I agree with Tonyj that we are okay funding wise for now.
Tilly has indicated that a number of tenders for which we are well suited are in the pipeline from India - so reason for optimism again and hopefully he can point us in the direction/post a link - that would be most helpful.
Vascular, is understandably concerned that until we see the money, it is pointless talking about contracts and tenders. I think the fact that we are now beginning to get money upfront is a sign that our negotiating hand with our partners and utilities has been strengthened. This could well become the norm in our future contract announcements - hopefully ?
Good morning InTheTin,
Thank you for you a voluntary, high quality, transparent disclosure and any onlooker would say that is genuine and the title "For the Record" makes that fact abundantly clear.
Respect.
As you have been open, let me tell you my observations, if it helps contextualise where I am coming from.
I have been investing in the stock market for about 3 decades and seen every type of market - bull, bear, stagnant, inflationary, deflationary etc and close analysis and reflection has helped develop my repository of "trading patterns". Almost every stock, develops a trading pattern/signature over a period of time in terms of trading frequency, trade sizes, diurnal variation, dormant /holding phases etc. I have no illusions/delusions that I can control the direction of the share price - I have a long investment horizon of 5-10 years or longer - so it is an owner mindset that I invest from. Gyrations in share price, have no immediate concern, though they can cause irritation/frustration like for any one else.
I am also experienced enough to take positions in size, which relative to the average PI, may seem huge, but in no way touch my solvency, sanity or sleep (though all of those aspects have been questioned recently !!!). So any concern that I am over exposed to my CYAN position, it totally misplaced - most things in life are relative. What I have observed in CYAN over the last 4 months or so, is an apparent anomalous deviation from this trading pattern and any kind of news (which in settled periods) would be considered resoundingly positive, seems to be pulled under by rip tides/undercurrents. This is highly unusual.
Yes, the historical record of what I consider "vapourware" contracts and legacy of unfilled promises and repeated equity dilutions remain a millstone for CYAN - both in terms of reputation and sentiment. And the market is understandably very wary of anything that is announced. But despite making a huge allowance for this scepticism/cynicism, there is still a lot of deliberate, false interpretation of information being posted repeatedly - like breakeven points, funding etc. This is totally unacceptable.
The Woodford /liquidity contagion in small market cap, thinly traded companies probably has a bearing on trading patterns as well - delayed trades announcements, dark pools etc, make it difficult to draw direct cause and effect correlations - but "fairies powered by pixie dust and cupcakes" are working on it - it will take time. I am aware that many Fund Managers have been forced to unwind positions, due to requirements of their Corporate Business Resilience concerns in light of Woodford.
I have communicated with the company about the need for greater clarity in RNS announcements, as the market requires the same like Oxygen. I am all for a civil, respectful, constructive discussion but won't hesitate to call out market abuse and falsehoods and posting of misleading information - I already have.
Good luc
Good morning Tilly Tish !
Indian rollout will pick up momentum, that is a given and we are well placed as a company. We are in 'waiting mode", as no further news of contracts that were delayed, bar one in my opinion. You never know when they will announce another contract.
As to the other side of the conversation, it needs to be done. Boring - yet important.
Every gardener knows that weeding takes time and it has to be done to let the garden flourish.
Have a good day :)
Not at all Tillytish - I have no problem with shorters. That is a legal route to making money on the stock market.
It is market abuse by deliberately posting false and misleading information to suit their trading cartel agendas, deliberately posting using multiple aliases that I am holding to account.
To top it all - ColourBounce is an accountant it would appear - what does it say about his honesty, integrity and character. Would you trust him to do your accounts ? Can you trust that he does proper accounts where he works - he could be cooking the books and misleading investors - a bit like the Tesco saga.
shall see when he next posts - it has to be a full, total and categorical denial (and if that is untrue, then he is digging a much bigger hole for himself). He's now between a rock and a very hard place.
When BigShyTed alleged that I was posting as both Imperial London and as MrNation, I denied it and asked him to report it to the LSE. No doubt in my mind.
If ColourBounce has nothing to hide, what is he cowering away from my posts and desperately and flailing in trying to engage in pointless, nervous discussion without the usual swearing, name calling etc ?
Sweaty, sleepless night and beyond in store....he can run, he can't hide. And now his career could be on the line too.....as you sow, so you reap .
He'll post some time in an act of bravado - I'll call his bluff.
Mens rea, tick tock :)
Colourbounce,
I am alleging that you have been posting as MrStrongViolent and/or MrGreenLight (pretending to be more than one person) with a view to adversely influence market sentiment to suit your trading agenda. I allege that you were banned on or around 17th Sep 2019 from the LSE BB thread and returned to start posting as MrStrongViolent shortly after.
This is against the LSE BB posting rules (check with the website) that you have agreed to when you have signed up a. The apparent purpose behind posting and backing up all your aliases through "Recommend" is a deliberate attempt to create an impression that there are others who agree with you.
I am alleging that you are part and parcel of a cartel who have been acting as a "concert party" to falsely influence the market to suit your trading agendas through deliberately posting false and misleading information.
Your mate in arms, BambasCrown has posted that both you and InTheTin have accounting skills - which I interpret as you both being Accountants and he gives the impression that you all know each other - so there is an element of association/cartel that can be inferred .
As an accountant, you are in a position of professional authority and relying on your qualifications, training and expertise to deliberately mislead and interpret information in a manner that causes fear and uncertainty in a thinly traded stock and cause wide fluctuations in its traded share price, which would fall under the remit of Market Abuse.
I am of the view that your cavalier, dismissive, behaviour, total lack of insight and lack of denial of either of my allegations so far, despite being given numerous chances to do so and that you have been simultaneously posting as MrStrongViolent, ColourBounce and MrGreenLight is a serious reflection of your honesty and integrity and incompatible with your continued professional role as an Accountant.
This raises a Fitness to Practise issue that would be reportable to your Professional Regulator, apart from the other reporting and legal avenues that I am pursuing.
Though you state you have filtered all posts from me - I am using this message to give you Final Notice to categorically deny the allegations that you are neither MrStrongViolent or MrGreenLight.
Once I see any further message from you on posted on this or any other LSE Bulletin Board and a categorical denial of the above allegations has/have not been posted, I shall immediately report the same to the LSE under Market Abuse Regulations.
Your Market Abuse Important Message:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse. This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison.
You can pretend to filter me Colourbounce.
You can't filter the LSE admin, London Stock Exchange or the FCA.
They have your calling card.
Market abuse, deliberate falsification to affect market sentiment and posting under multiple aliases can't be erased. Much as you to nervously try to laugh it away. It's gnawing at you every moment. I know how your mind will be working at this time.
Tick tock !
Colourbounce and ITT
The dangers of getting someone else to fire your bullets are not to be underestimated. Your mate in arms has let everyone know that you and ITT are accountants. Sounds like you guys know eachother very well !
Fantastic news!! As he has dropped you both in deeper doo doo.
Apart from 7 years and unlimited fine for market abuse that's on the table - your professional body could assess your fitness to practise as well !!
You can't pretend that you have drawn a line - the past is here to stay !
As you sow, so you reap !
Posts on LSE are for posterity!!
Tick tock !!
No threats from my side. I'll hold you or anyone else to account everytime for market abuse. That's the job of a SUPERGRASS.
You seem to know what ColourBounce and ITT do ? Cosy club eh ?
As you sow, so you reap :)