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Actually this is old news from 04 Sep 2017 - with little to show for it so far in terms of installation or implementation it would appear. Wonder why a global multibillion dollar corporation like L&G has not publicised their installation in the Capital of India ? Guys would not have to travel to Indore to see what actually works ?
https://www.landisgyr.com/webfoo/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/2017-09-04_LandisGyr-Tata-Power-DDL-Partner-to-Deploy-Smart-Metering-Infrastructure-in-Delhi.pdf
Happy to stand corrected if you are able to provide evidence of the outcome of this contract announced from 04 Sep 2017.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXMmK1R7Vcg&feature=youtu.be
Voiceover: Rough summary from Hindi speaking colleague (E&OE):
2 high ranking officials from the African nation of Ghana visited the Indore Smart Metering Project on Monday. Apart from drawing national attention, now the project is gaining international attention. The delegates were given a Powerpoint presentation by Mr Vikas Narwal at the Indore Polo Ground. He told them about the key facts and benefits of smart metering including improving revenues, disconnection and re-connection.
---------------------------------
This showcasing to other developing countries like Ghana with a population of around 30 million is hugely positive. I imagine that the issues/challenges that India face in terms of energy won't be too far removed from what Ghana are experiencing. Hence, seeing successful implementation of technology in a developing nation to address these challenges would be welcome and something that could be seen as transferable.
So part of the strategy for the Intellismart JV with EESL and other Indian players in the sector for growth, could be "knowledge and technology transfer" to whole plethora of developing nations. India seem to be on the move with their plans to maximise their learning and dissemination from the Indore project - for commercial benefit eventually I would surmise. They seem to have made a start with Bangladesh and now Ghana.
https://twitter.com/DaulaniAnil/status/1220619643624124416?s=09
Anil tweeting with more detail on the Indore Project particularly with regards to revenue enhancement on a monthly basis apart from benefits to the Consumer, Discom and the Govt of India. The expected Return on Investment (RoI) is about 2 years from award - so even much better than what I thought. I get a strong sense that Anil is making a point to someone the tweet is directed at (? @ EESL) !!
Also found this presentation from Vikas Narwal, Indian Administrative Service (IAS) and head of the Indore presenting at the Regional Cooperation for Modernization of Power in South Asia earlier this week.
https://youtu.be/AF5dI0iZBGc
Starts of in ? Hindi (but there is a segment from 1:13 onwards in English) for a fair bit and then reverts.
Looks like delegates from the USA, Maldives, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were also there. So I am speculating that the Intellismart JV with EESL is mapping out its geographical footprint for expansion...here's hoping anyway !
And it looks like our Indore is the flagship project - fantastic publicity and recognition !
Fantastic work and congratulations to Anil and the CYAN team !
Good morning LTI and Tonyj,
We are making excellent progress in Indore as per the following article from today - keynote address by Mr. Vikas Narwal
http://epaper.freepressjournal.in/2522169/Free-Press-Indore-Edition/23-Jan-2020#page/3/1
1.2 Lakh or 120k smart meters installed in just ONE YEAR based on RF technology - not GPRS !
Estimated savings of Rs. 40 crores in a year, on an overall project base cost of about Rs.96 Crores (from memory)
Which reflects a phenomenal Return on Capital/Investment - the savings alone will pay for the entire project cost in about/less than 2.5 years. And then of course, ongoing savings from stopping AT&C will actually generate additional revenues on a recurrent basis in the years to come.
A total "no brainer decision" for anyone having to make an infrastructure capital investment decision - and no wonder the Indian Govt is showcasing this as a testament to their Government's achievements.
What will be the RoI on Heathrow 3rd Runway or HS2 ? - will help put Capex investment decisions in perspective.
What is also highly pertinent is that this achievement was announced at an event jointly organised by US AID (US Aid for International Development) , World Utility Summit and the Govt.of India.
This ties in nicely with a plausible explanation as to why the GoI may be in a tearing hurry to proceed with (what Tilly has posted) in terms of upcoming tenders in Madhya Pradesh of 2 tenders x Rs 236 crores = Rs. 472 crores or approximately £52.44 million.
It is my opinion that the massive, well publicised success of the Indore smart metering project has revitalised and rejuvenated the whole Indian smart metering ecosystem. Indore has been the test bed for implementation on a large scale and lessons would have been learned in terms of barriers and workarounds for installation issues. Given that Indore is effectively a reference site, Discoms from all around India will have ready access to a tried and tested formula/roll out plan to implement smart metering.
Why would any bureaucrat be bold enough to try an "untested" solution - as he /she would have a difficult case to answer if things don't work out ? There was an old adage of the 1980/1990s amongst the IT/Software guys that "Nobody got fired for buying IBM" - IBM was virtually the default hardware equipment anywhere and everywhere they used computers.
In my opinion, we are not far off seeing a similar kind of governmental mindset developing in terms of the technology adoption behind smart metering rollout in India with CYAN. Play safe, and stick with a tested recipe !
" CYAN inside" Genus, L&T and HPL meters control approx 50% of Indian market share and about 250 million smart meters needed in due course !
Either way, CYAN are on the move in India IMHO much to the chagrin, denials and discomfort of resident corporate archaeologists/ex- Chief Editors of Pravda (pre Glasnost/Gorbachev) who are going to be in for a rude shock in
ColourBounce/BigShyTed,
Ask a grown up to read this and explain it to you - you have got the next 3 years for this module. Don't keep watching La La or Dipsy while you are at it.
Many thanks Tilly Tish for digging the RF v GPRS presentation from Cyanconnode which was the context that I used in my post yesterday to Jakeandelwood.
https://cyanconnode.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RF-Mesh-Vs-GPRS_USV2.pdf
Your ground is getting stickier. Keep digging, you'll never learn.
Hide behind the filter :) Don't face reality.
Tick tock !
As you sow, so you reap !
BST, if you ever reach a reading age of 3 years (given that will never happen) - I'll give you a fuller reply.
Watch Teletubbies - just right for your mental age group and abilities :)
Oh dear Colourbounce !
You are beyond pathetic and desperate - your history of posting provides ample evidence of that. Your credibility on this thread is non-existent and people have called you out for what you are. Posters have got you worked out and your agenda.
Go ahead and make my day - report it where ever !
By the way, have you got a few recycled computers as yet to re-start posting as MrStrongViolent, MrGreenLight and whoever else - new IP addresses and all that ?
Margin calls making you so jittery that you have removed the filter, to see what I am posting ?
No denials whatsoever to my allegations ?
Why are you running scared once again behind the filter ? You are an accountant....your professional regulator will have a view on that, if you are actually employed.
Get a life - no colour, no bounce - an isolated recluse waiting in the basement for the next "incoming".
Important Message from the Financial Conduct Authority:
Posting inside information that is not public knowledge, or information that is false or misleading, may constitute market abuse. This could lead to an unlimited fine and up to seven years in prison. If you have any information, concerns or queries about market abuse
Tick tock !
As you sow, so you reap !
Hi Vas,
Please go back to the very start of the post to Jakeandelwood which begins with a disclaimer that these are my opinions - not referring to you personally, but I have little time for some of posts or posters on here. Re RF Mesh - this is stuff that I have gathered from talking to CYAN management at open Investor Events - as some would say for "nodding dogs". I am not here to get anyone to buy or sell - make up your own minds.
If some on here can't read or write, there is little I can do to assist :)
ColourBounce : 18 Jan 2020 15:11
"I haven't been reading the Weird ones posts, and that will remain. He has nothing to say, but posts all day lol".
I thought I was on filter ColourBounce ?
So you can go and DYOR or attend the meetings that "nodding dogs" go to and be "thrown a biscuit!!
Good morning Jakeandelwood,
Disclaimer: These are my opinions - please decide for yourselves.
In my view there are the legacy / historical issues of CYAN announcing various contracts that did not generate revenue. This coupled with a historic business model that did not generate adequate revenues to keep our heads above our water, led to repeated equity dilutions. It is also important to recognise that various stakeholders (Govts, Policy Makers, Utilities) etc were faced with a raft of untried technologies across the globe. Also we were trying to "create a market" for our products when the eco-system was not developed to be in a position to accept it. So in summary, we were in a very different context and we spread our resources rather thinly.
Now countries and ecosystems for technology adoption are more mature and Govts have honed in on what works in their countries. Govts and Utilities have carried out various Pilots of technologies, funding arrangements, partners and have now had a chance to evaluate the same.
In my view, we have moving from "an early adoption" phase to a "mass adoption phase". The challenges of this are not to be underestimated, but doable with political support, policy support and financial incentives. If you have the time, please read Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey Moore and Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital by Carlota Perez - you will then understand where I am coming from.
CYAN in my view are in a sweet spot and the historical / legacy issues are just that. Though I learn from history, it would be a fallacy to set my sails by it for CYAN at this time.
I am hugely optimistic - my investment is largely based on the prospects in India - any other revenue streams from RoW that come off are a real bonus. We have the largest single smart meter installation in Indore, India with over 100,000 smart meters. Our smart meters communicate with our software platform 193 times a day and our reliability/uptime is over 99%. Billing revenues have increased by about 25% (from memory). Indore has become a reference site for India - a Centre of Excellence. India has tried and recognised that GPRS/Mobile backhaul for smart metering is not workable - so Govt policy direction is towards RF Mesh in the main.
With over 250 million smart meters to be rolled out and CYAN being embedded with the 3 biggest meter manufacturers - Genus, L&T and HPL who control about 50% of the market share is a huge endorsement of our technology and team in India. Anil and his team are absolutely brilliant - the gentleman has an unparalleled understanding of the Indian electricity market and is a recognised thought leader who also delivers. Indian politicians and bureaucrats need what is seen as a "home grown solution" and he is ready to offer it on a platter. CYAN is not seen as a foreign company in India. Running out of space - but you get where I am coming from ?
Good luck !
Good morning Tonyj,
With regards to the conversation as to "how many DCUs would a country like India need"?
We know:
That 1 Data Concentrator Unit (DCU) can serve as a gateway for about 200 smart meters installed in people's homes.
India intends to roll out about 250m smart meters eventually.
If we work on current information, (I fully appreciate that in the future, with improvement in technology, the capacity of DCUs to serve as a gateway for more smart meters may significantly increase).
Using this example:
For 200 million smart meters , you will need 1,000,000 (1 Million) DCUs.
250 million smart meters, you will need 1.25 million DCUs.
So in my estimation, a figure of 10,000 DCUs to cover about 1.2 billion population spread over 3m+ sq.Km is a massive underestimate. All in my opinion of course.
Hope that helps :)
Good morning TenStorey !
Welcome aboard :)
Top first post - no messing about, it seems with you. You say it as you see it and good on you for calling out unacceptable behaviour - some people never learn.
Respect !
CYAN/we are in a holding pattern till we have some contract news - you may know that certain contracts were awarded in India according to the Arden Research Note in end Oct 2019. About $15m or so in total value, from 3-4 contracts. So far only a £3.3m contract has been announced - so we never know when we will have a RNS.
You may see from my previous posts - I am very optimistic and hopeful that CYAN will deliver and our commercial prospects have never looked better. I am pretty certain that we won't run out of cash either. Those are some of my firmly held opinions.
But take what I post with a huge handful of salt, I am a "weirdo" who loses money for a hobby.
Not :)
Good luck !
452 sq km - is an area a little over 21km x 21 km.
1 DCU cannot cover this vast area with the tech we have.
I think you can't really extrapolate DCUs directly with area coverage due to range issues due to terrain, built up density, nature of construction materials etc. In the past a Data Concentrator Unit (DCU) could serve as the gateway for about 40 smart meters. But this number of smart meters that can be served has increased, due to increased power of the NIC and/or DCU capability.
Now a Data Concentrator Unit can serve as a gateway for about 200 smart meters. So this reduces the cost of the Discom in terms of capital expenditure for the roll out.
Also there was an RNS last year (the one about district central heating) about the range of the RF mesh being significantly extended in the Nordics by a huge margin. This could have a practical application in certain parts of rural / remote areas of India.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands are about 1369km/855 miles away from Tamil Nadu in the Bay of Bengal. So nothing to do with the state of Tamil Nadu (capital Chennai, previously called Madras). It is likely to be a separate tender.
Hi ITT,
You are right that I misinterpreted your post - I formed the impression that your Solicitor and Barrister were already pursuing the claim. Have a good weekend !
Hi ITT,
I hope your legal challenge goes in your favour.
My take /opinion is that CYAN may have more cash than £500k ish. I imagine that the Thailand $400k upfront could have come in/due shortly - as that is the impression I got from the wording of the Thailand Contract RNS. Also there was a RNS in ? July 2019 relating to the Nordics and recall some revenue recognition due there for the year. So my guess is our cash position could/maybe closer to £1m, rather than £500k ish ?
With regards to listed companies being taken private, the following are on my radar. I closed out a huge position in CTP for this reason - the HQ moved to Channel Islands and the holdings structure was becoming increasingly opaque and a number of related party issues - both of these are huge red flags in my experience. I did make some very substantial profits however.
Others IMHO which are at risk of becoming delisted / taken private ( for a variety of reasons) when I last looked were
SUMM, THAL, WBI, DIS - all companies that I held at various points. WBI was the old Obtala (OBT) that I inherited from the ORA delisting shenanigans. With THAL I also made a decent profit, but I did not like the tone of the boss DS there which was very much along the lines of "put up or shut up". So closed out a relatively small sized position there.
Good luck :)
12 Jan 2020 08:43
Edited and re-posted:
The topic of how much cash CYAN possibly has and the impact on delayed revenues have been debated. Now if I were in a similar position corporately, I would get my FD to do an Finances Options Appraisal paper to the Operational Executive Team to brain storm and challenge assumptions, biases etc, before doing a paper for the BoD for sign off.
Back of envelope ideas...
Apart from a line by line review of Operational Expenses which I would take as read:
1. Explore short term bridging loans, revolving Lines of Credit, overdrafts for working capital with our bank/other banks.
2. Invoice discounting against future revenues
3. Renegotiate financial terms with shortened payment periods from our customers (eg Genus, L&T)
4. Renegotiate financial terms with delayed payment periods with our suppliers (eg, NIC component suppliers and OEM NIC manufacturers)
5. Review/ Improve foreign exchange hedging calls
6. Review R&D tax credit workings and submissions to HMRC
7. Explore UK Government initiatives for International Business Development
8. Explore UK Government Green Energy Finance Initiatives from Climate Change related funding allocation
9. Explore Indian Govt opportunities to explore pump prime funding for Smart Metering Rollout on scale.
10. Bring forward discussions with EESL re Intellismart JV and tapping into recently announced National Infrastructure Fund.
So there are plenty of eminently workable avenues/opportunities for non-dilutive fund raising. I am of the opinion/view that CYAN are now "too critical to be allowed to fail" by our partners.
Hi ITT,
I have been stung twice by delistings / companies been taking private - ORA Capital Partners and RockSolid Images over the years, if memory serves me right. Though I had decent share holdings, I could not do much to stop those events happening as the management had garnered enough support and funding to be able to do. I recall with regards to one of the Companies the EGM was in a tax haven somewhere and I couldn't get to and I suspect many other shareholders could not do so either - and the management needed 75% of the votes of those present/represented at the AGM and they achieved it.
With ORA I got dividend in specie - basically shares in the various companies that were under the umbrella in proportion to my holdings. In the case of RSI, I got back about £522 or some princely such sum from about a £40-45k investment !! PWC or one of the big four, had the rest in fees, I imagine.
In terms of CYAN, I think your question is very much a hypothetical one and I have not been troubled by this thought at all.
JC has an excellent track record of successful technology company exits in the region of £150-200 million each (guessing from £600m+ over 4 or 5 exits). Going by the fact that most people stick to what they know, have experience of, and usually have the same MO (modus operandi), I think that the risk of de-listing the company and taking it private is very, very low IMHO. It is not on my radar.
Also if Directors/ PDMR trade, they have to declare and we have no RNS to indicate this either. I would love to see the BoD/PDMR buying in size to bolster sentiment in CYAN - but this is yet to happen.
I shall re-post regarding the funding avenues open to us as I don't think we will be forced to go cap in hand to the "big shareholders" of CYAN for a private, equity dilutive loan. I am aware that even at the last Investor Meeting, other shareholders and I emphasised our unhappiness with repeated equity dilution. I think CYAN are stronger financially than we have been for a long time, with reduced operating expenses and improving revenues and upfront payments.
1. Based on what can be deduced from RNS/Press Releases, what is your take/guess as to our cash position, revenues, scale of losses etc ?
2.It would be interesting to hear your views ITT, as to what leads you to think that we are at a risk of being de-listed and taken private ?
TIA
Hi ITT,
Yes I would strongly oppose a "cheap buyout" and definitely at what I would see as a totally ridiculous offer circa £30 million. It is a given. I would, like any other share holder, have a say commensurate to my share holding in CYAN.
Andrew Brode at 80 yrs or so is still going strong - check his track record and share price with RWS, LTG. You can't put an old head on young shoulders as the saying goes. Learning stuff takes ages !! His GRC is not so hot at the moment though.
Hi ITT,
I don't have a market figure in mind that would reflect the potential of CYAN at this point in time but it would be way above £30m. Therefore, considering a market cap of about £30m as being "fair value" for an exit would be premature IMHO.
Once we get to roll out / implementation in scale with the prospect of a recurrent, embedded revenue stream with solid margins in a country as big as India...people will come knocking to buy us up. That is the way it goes.
Acquirers value companies from different angles - financial metrics such as Discounted Cash Flow, Revenue/EBITDA multiple etc (I am no accountant) are just one aspect in the mix. They also take into account Intellectual Property, Brand Strength, Geographical footprint, market share, growth potential, existing partnerships and customer stickiness apart from quality of the management team. So the "intangibles/goodwill element" could form a big part of any acquisition of us, when the time comes and £30m won't touch the sides in my view.
On the CYAN website it is stated that JC has exited 4 or 5 companies, returning about £600 million + to shareholders. That would give him a solid track record, experience and expertise in this M&A area in my opinion.
So personally, my view is £30m is too low and the figure would be higher, much higher in a few years time.
I invest from an owner mind set and having to wait another 3-5 years is fine by me :)
I suppose people will be posting that by then the company won't exist by that time - but I am willing to take my chances :)
I can see your thinking/argument that given our market cap of about £5.5m, a figure of £30m would offer a return of 5.5x return and there's no shame in that. A profit being a profit and all that.
But to me it would be akin to selling the family heirlooms and silver to pay for the weekly shop !