I just hope if one is investing mainly for the 10% divi that you don't have to wait a few years for the price to go back upto the xdividend price so you can get back your lump sum without a loss!
We have so far today erased all the drop from Thursday's Russia news confirmation shock at least in the case of psn and bdev
How do you guys explain today's massive bounce back in house builder sp's, just positive expectation ahead of results this week?
It starts with psn and vty full year results on Wednesday then tw full year on Thursday, will this trio results be enough to push sp for housebuilders up from next week forward if the Russia war risk does nt keep dampening investor appetite and we put in a low, then forward and upwards till persimmon's 10% divi the week after even taking into account the negative prospect of rising interest rates and inflation on house prices or not, personally mulling whether I should put a lump sum in psn before xdivi in 2 weeks.
It starts with psn and vty full year results on Wednesday then tw full year on Thursday, will this trio results be enough to push sp for housebuilders up from next week forward if the Russia war risk does nt keep dampening investor appetite and we put in a low, then forward and upwards till persimmon's 10% divi the week after even taking into account the negative prospect of rising interest rates and inflation on house prices or not, personally mulling whether I should put a lump sum in psn before xdivi in 2 weeks.
OK so the broker comments although it only downgraded bwy bkg bdev plus Ukraine tensions are these the only reasons builder's are down today? Seems a bit of an overreaction!!
Jefferies considers cladding issues, downgrades three UK housebuilders
Mon, 24th Jan 2022 10:28
(Sharecast News) - Jefferies downgraded its recommendation on three UK housebuilders on Monday as it assessed the impact of cladding issues.
The bank downgraded Barratt Developments, Bellway and Berkeley Group to 'hold' from 'buy'.
It said that whether housebuilders should or will shoulder the whole burden of cladding remediation is a "complex and emotive" discussion. Even including a worst-case scenario of 12% tax rate to fund remediation, it still sees value in the sector.
Jefferies' top picks are buy-rated Persimmon, Crest Nicholson & Redrow. "Despite stepping up tax by a further 8% in FY22, we remain buyers of Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Crest Nicholson, Redrow and Vistry," it said.
"Against the backdrop of what could be a loud campaign from government, share prices could see significant volatility in the coming months. However we still believe there to be opportunity in the sector."
As far as Barratt, Bellway and Berkeley are concerned, Jefferies said that for those housebuilders who provisioned under the previous scope - i.e. buildings above 18 metres - and/or where they are the 'responsible person', it sees risk of further one-off charges and cash outs for cladding remediation, as well as negative PR.
"At this stage we believe even the housebuilders themselves do not know the full extent of the cost (M&A through the period, lack of access, uncertain 'solutions', labour constraints, clawback from freeholders) but with approximately 55% of the high rise buildings requiring remediation in London, we believe it is fair to assume the exposure to those with a long history of build in the Capital could be more substantial," it said.
"Until there is greater understanding of the scale and cost of remedying their own build, our price targets reflect this higher risk profile, and share price performance constrained."
The bank cut its price target on Barratt to 644p from 851p, while Berkeley's was reduced to 4,703p from 6,212p. Jefferies cut the price target on Bellway to 3,339p from 4,187p
Hi nickylauda
Where do you get broker comments from? Can you get it before market open, that would be really great!
The last(intraday) low was 2476.5 on 6th Oct 2021 today's low 2515.5 we may still get there as a negative reaction to more housebuilder results coming soon like tw on Monday as we had to vty on tue and psn today
Hi everyone,
How many people think the cladding news effect will only push down sp today only and how many think its effect will last for longer?
Thanks
For a pop tomorrow on full Yr results?
Peteret,
I think the main reason hbuilders popped on wed sparked by bdev results was that they were way oversold technically 'cause bdev update wasn't that different from the yearlies earlier and bwy has popped a bit since its low on 6th Oct but it can still pop more tomorrow, we'll have to see!
Okehurst1 how do you manage to get free times links?
Going xdividend sometimes can trigger a short term decline in the days/weeks after, judging by the rapid relentless down action on Thu and Fri-though exacerbated possibly by the negative news regarding Philip Morris/altria-it could "possibly" keep the momentum till 2300/2400 support before bouncing back! Previously it has gone done much more eg 500 points post xdividend.
Day before xdividend daily rsi was oversold at 82-above 70 Upper Limit- do you think this could strengthen the case that its more likely to fall to say 1300's and rsi gets to 30 before it starts to go backup to 1500's again specially with trading update announced on Oct 14th?
I did nt buy. Butwhat news has made it go down so much - 2.6% today, broker downgrade/director sell?neither of which we get notified quick enough ??
Interestingly sp should in theory be going up on the day/s before going xdivi but dunelm was down by some 2% few minutes ago!
Just out of curiosity how much do you think the sp will tank on the xdivi day tomorrow, total divi is 65 p?
I wonder whether they will shed more light on the bid situation?!
Hi,
Do you think today's rise is only due to a "risk on"day? It looks to me its more than that, maybe gov backing down from mandating vaccine passports for clubs etc or other news?let me know if you know more