The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Bennster, I just dunno, but thanks. I wonder if there's a big background seller making the price more depressed...and me depressed ...but I won't be temped to pun "into the bargain" for tediously obvious reasons.
My timing wasn't so lucky after all. Yes, I won't give up my day job. Ask dropped, my ar*e kicked.
I added to my holding by a small amount (luckily before the tick up/recovery) and just quite speculatively as I merely hope that the OBC price is underpinned somewhat by AFN's recent RNS. I would like to know if this delayed trade of 17 May was definitely a buy:
17-May-21 10:42:49 42.90 69,913 Buy* 41.00 43.00 29.99k O
There were quite a few 10k trades recently marked as sells - I wonder if it's that perhaps is the one Dubjon mentioned as a possible seller.
Meanwhile, Freefaucet has now over 130k signups according to its own page. But, that growth does not seem hugely impressive, or does it? And the free daily faucets seems to have run out of several coins.
Mooning Market - can't say I am a fan. But it could probably do well with the right people behind it.
Argo also dropped again today. I think I saw the PE of Argo is something like 275, yeah? Like tech boom days of yore! Or are they comin' around again? Cue Carly Simon.
TheOldMoot, thanks for that. Yes, I thought that might be the case. Nothing's easy 'ere!
Gdtanner, you were indeed correct about the drip drip and falls when you posted. However, the rise/spike in OBC in Jan was before Elon M's remark about BTC IIRC. Ditto 2018.
The question now is whether the market will price OBC at the value of AFN's profits ... Is AFN on a PE of 19-20? (assuming the other day's RNS is correct) Or if there is a bid for AFN, then OBC is currently priced at little more than its share of the probable bid cash from the rumoured bidder if I understand the figures correctly (but Bennster's maths are much better than mine!) .
..So we and perhaps the market maker(s) will ask themselves what the rest of OBC's value is - that's Mooning Market, Freefaucet, Trism (currently no income from that according to Bennster) and whatever else I may have missed. Whether OBC (or ONL as it was) and its latest projects can produce a proper cash cow or even a teat of AFN is that unknown unknown. (I remember the tech boom in Y2K - nobody seemed to care about profits and PE ratios were huge.)
TheOldMoot, if AdvFN has definite identification of trades as buys or sells, are last night's delayed 104k and 50k listed as buys or a sells on the AdvFN screen? If sells, it might (I stress might) be what DubJon mentioned in his post below ... i.e. that investor distress selling perhaps. OBC - quite often a grey hair share and especially this week.
Well, not really as I absolutely always only post what I think is true or likely, but with occasional self-censorship due to my own tendency to sometimes worry unduly or be overly optimistic. The 2 trades I pasted below (104k and 50k) were delayed yesterday and show as buys, but they must be sells surely? If so, they might have brought the price down: 11-May-21 09:31:44 48.05 104,086 Buy* 45.00 47.00 50.01k O /// (a large trade a few weeks back too, see my earlier posts) ..
11-May-21 09:33:59 48.25 57,224 Buy* 45.00 47.00 27.61k O Hmm, I thought Musk had been positive about BTC in Feb and about Dogecoin on SNL, but perhaps I misread. I do know that some say it is hard to monetise blockchain technology as some or all of it is open source, but yeah I don't know nearly enough on these things ...so OBC is just a punt for me, not the result of lots of research. Now to state the bleedin' obvious: I hope I don't regret that punt, wouldn't be the first time if I do come to regret it.
But OldMoot, didn't you and another poster scoff that it was a dog of a share, just a few weeks back? So why do you say now that the drops surprise you when this is basically what you and other posters forecast? I also don't know why it drops like that unless there is a large seller in the background. The good news is that IF it reverses, it has been known to recover from such lows in a matter of days (as in Dec, Jan and Feb) but I don't say it will recover because I simply don't know, as won't surprise anyone.
Thanks Bennster, maths never was my thing (as we can see!). I suppose for some obscure reason, such as almost complete mathematical illiteracy, I was assuming 100p represented the full market cap, instead of doing my sums properly by taking the AFN total market cap and then 18% of that instead.
Dubjon, it certainly did get a spanking and I must admit that 12% off was not something I'd anticipated during this episode.
Here's hoping things cheer up!
Oh well. I wonder if the one Dubjon mentioned below (thanks for that very interesting heads up btw!) are offloading? Because quite a few transactions at what seem buy prices...but down we have gone today by some 11%. The AFN thing, if it happens, is probably worth 18% of the cash or whatever AFN would get per share if rumours became fact, so roughly 18p for OBC per 100p for AFN, if I'm not mistaken? OBC might then be priced at just that value or a value sans AFN plus a value of X for its own OBC projects, I assume? The looming unknown unknowns perhaps.
Question marks aplenty fro me (sorry) and also because that sums up my surprise at seeing the 11% drop today here.
This time next year, Rodney?
I hope your buy bears lots of fruit for you one day or one day soon. I have not added any to my holding.
Yes, I also get that feeling based on the volume in Jan and Feb and nothing much else except maybe that big transaction I mentioned down below. An unknown unknown - yes sums it up for me too. Perhaps that fella who reportedly increased his AFN stake might chuck some love in this direction? I can dream.
I don't understand what I see on that page, Dubjon (the rising liquidity graph and some of the rest of it). I think the only bit that may really matter to common or garden investors in that context is perhaps mostly just Umbria's price in USD?
I don't understand why there's obviously something clever under the hood in the coding of the Freefaucet etc (I read Bill & Ted have computer science degrees) yet the viewable pages remind me of one of those "[confetti] Congratulations you have won a..." things.
Anyway, grateful to you for lots of info I would not otherwise have known. (I don't know if OBC's about to tick up and stay up. If so, I'm pleased none of the red trades were mine as that's always painful to watch.)
Anyone reading this may like to note I know nothing and this is not advice - in fact, until a week ago I thought 'mooning' was just a state of undress seen on a football supporters' bus.
Dubjon, thank you for the update - interesting to read that although another red day for OBC so far. I noticed an increase in crypto currency offer claims at Freefaucet in the past week. Sadly, in some ways, Freefaucet resembles some of my own website pages in 1995 after I did 8 HTML evening classes.
> " OBC's 18% stake is up well over 100% in value over the last few days...... "
Yet OBC's price has dipped during this AdvFN speculation and when AFN TR1s were posted, and actually is dipping again as I write. I might guess why that is, but as it's just a guess I won't air it.
You wanna see or read the types on some European stocks' BBs -- far worse than anything we see here, and by a country mile. ...ramping to the moon, deramping or ****ging off with no restraint.
Yeah, OBC needs jump leads now and again -- I don't know what will do it, perhaps some decent RNS.
Thanks Bennster. That FT page omits that info, or so it seems unless I looked in the wrong tab.
I wonder if that smart professor triggering the AFN TR1 would like to diversify into a company I have shares in? Any chance? Nope? Not even with some loose change down the back of the sofa?
I still have to wonder what those much larger than usual transactions were for OBC, especially as they looked like buys (see my earlier post). Red herring time or elephant in the potting shed?
Better late than never, Bennster, well done again. I was thinking of AFN a couple of times but I forgot to transfer the money to the broker account so only peanuts in the account to buy with. Of course, hindsight says it would've been an idea to have sold OBC a few weeks ago when Gdtanner suggested it and bought AFN! :D
Market maker(s) for OBC likely left doing the crossword with pretty much dusty old tumbleweed here despite OBC probably having a stake in AFN ... I assume it still does have 18pc? I ask because OBC not mentioned on this FT page for some reason: markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=AFN:LSE
OBC always the bridesmaid and never the bride? Hope not. I might toss that coin soon.
Bennster, I'm chuffed for you and Dubjon and the other poster(s) who are LTH or got into AFN before the rise ... my screen says "66.00 GBX +30.50 (85.92%)" Advfn's own screen says up 91.55%. So flippin' well done on a nice rise ... to put it mildly! Winner winner vegan-friendly chicken dinner!
Thanks Bennster and Dubjon for the info -- most probably others here would echo that thanks. I didn't know any of that tbh.
Thanks, Bennster. I haven't sold yet, and I wish you and all genuine PIs here lots of luck and lots of profit whatever strategy you go for. You only have to get 6 out of 10 right and you're quids in :-) . . I might just add if anyone else uses Opera to view these pages, it plays up on my system -- chat posts here don't always show, trades vanish then reappear, I refresh and no change until I use Chrome. A cache problem I assume. Pain in the a*se this Opera sometimes.
Bennster, that's at least two different posters who called what I thought was named ADVFN by the name "ADVDN". Is that an unaffectionate nickname for AFN :) It made me smile on this red day.
I read through some of this OBC forum from a few years ago and one of the posters back then said the same negative things as we read nowadays and sadly the price did then fall from a reasonable level to either what s/he forecast or very close to it at 7p or 8p I think. S/he made a stunning prediction a few years early or the pandemic's impact on sentiment kicked in. Yes, I know there are always bulls and bears or there'd be no market and I've seen lots of bulls wrong and bears wrong in forums everywhere.
I hold OBC although I took profits/sold part of my holding over 100p, so I am not in loss...yet. I was on the verge of a total exit but for the large transactions the other day - IF they were buys (and not just a short closing or actually sells?) they make me wonder what to do ...as does the high volume in Jan and Feb.
Some of OBC's web pages and sites do appear dated, some pages were 'down for maintenance', some of the corporate pages look a bit sloppy in presentation. But I have seen worse in other companies and their shares were buoyant. Nevertheless, I ask myself if they don't care about appearances much because they are beavering away at bringing value and know their onions (at long last) or whether it's just they don't care, full stop. I simply don't know, so I have no choice but to look for clues in published trades and public domain stuff to gauge if there is now a turning point.
I also saw much less volume than in Jan and Feb 2021 spiked the price in 2018. I am not sure why, is it dilution since then?
In 2020 the trend ceased to be down from the end of March unless I misunderstand the chart and if a chart even matters for shares like this, I don't know.
I suppose if I sell the lot, they will go up the day after or even 2 mins later (as happened on another share I sold yesterday). Similar rises after I sell happen to me about half the time, painful when they're double-digit.
I won't post much or anything here again as I have said all I can say that are my thoughts, if those thoughts are worth anything at all. IF I sell, I won't announce it on the thread because firstly I'm a nobody and secondly it will likely be a coin toss to decide a sell or not in my case based on what I reckon now.
DubJon, I know the shares in at least some other blockchain-related firms abroad dropped 10-20%, even 1 or 2 I can think of that were supposedly highly thought of. On the crypto, I started to sign up to another firm's exchange but they wanted all my details like an upload of photo ID, so I backed out because sensitive data on databases and ID theft (happened to me before) puts me off these days. But I will have a look at the OBC one you mentioned. Many thanks and best of luck whatever you decide to do, in or out.