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This is true. And you can only see the bottom in hindsight. It could have dipped further!

I think we’ve missed the boat on this choice. Only Swazer’s charts could have foreseen it!

I get tempted to buy when its awful, like a week ago, then regret when it zooms like this.

Trouble is known when you’re throwing good after bad. Is this Graham’s last kick before the fish hits the insolvency net, or a Phoenix rising?! I know which I’d prefer but Graham’s been ‘very confident’ before and I’m already loaded up.

Stick or twist.

P.s., Mat, I’m not sure that 23p is too scientific - hope it’s right though! 🤣

I know! I’m recalling an old RNS roadmap as my point of reference, so that may be updated.

If there’s an ESIA tomorrow, Testpack, how will we raise debt with no BFS?

Everything seems to need revision, which I assume will take 6-12mths from start to funding and allow time for job adverts galore - unless the role can be filled by a friendly local monopolist, before.

An OCP investment and board member (CFO holding the controls?) wouldn’t be a crazy surprise in exchange for the ESIA.

I think the JORC point can explain the CFO also.

It’s unfundable without ESIA. It won’t be funded before a full JORC and BFS rewrite. No CFO level activity required in the short term.

It’s right we save the cost, if it’s permitted. Right to avoid contacting to pay, in case it’s not permitted. Finally, to flip it the other way, wet might have trouble attracting a CFO before there is worthwhile work to do. It’s probably been quite boring for him.

Would be different, for me, if this were a non exec leaving.

The CFO’s leaving quote looks written by the company’s PR agency. Who says ‘genuinely confident’ if they’re really confident to a high level. Why would we otherwise assume it not to be ‘genuine’?! Ha ha

I’m interested that Graham has given a timeline, having been burned before. It’s hard to know if he’s again being naive, there’s genuine prospect, or the company will have to go into shut down mode otherwise, so he may as well say it!

Jim Winn is genuinely confident, at least!

I notice no talks with financiers underway and that tallies with it being unfundable pre-esia and Graham wanting to essentially reprice the whole project.

If he can pull out of this tail spin though, the numbers great and could help balance the ‘strategic investor’ dilution taken on.

Regulatory engagement is a work stream, so I’d like it to also debrief on the ‘strategic’ investors visit to the authorities in country.

Hillview and Chisler, yes.

Share price means little because it’s not really tradable, and there’s no inflation to inform any trade either - disempowering to say, but it will either be okay or not.

Have to hold…, onto the rollercoaster retaining bar!!

The business could look back at its 2020 investor pitch when preparing this Q3 report:

https://youtu.be/J621bGL-GFA

Really suggests Graham was coming in with a shovel to start 2021 construction and how stagnated it’s been. Also touches on the powerful oligopolies in the sector and how consumers would love to buy from an independent - we have yet to see if the state producers holding a third of the world market has exercised any involvement. Graham says they lack what we want to produce.

Both very good points below.

On the political speculation, you could say that if the project is refused, the leverage to urge the UK is lost (if any at all). Leaving the project waiting retains the status quo without taking any active step that would offend UK favour.

It’s all complete speculation and outrageous that we’re left to resort to such exotic imaginations!

Very good point on the DAP, as that would mean we only had an idea - maybe not even proof of concept that it can be operationalised.

RNS updates need to start going beyond ‘confidence’.

Building on the extract below, I see that the UK has not given full support to Morocco over the West Saraha, while others have. I wonder if that is contributing.

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2023/12/359825/western-sahara-is-uk-support-for-moroccos-territorial-integrity-on-the-horizon

Thanks, BTS. All useful. It’s just so hard to know what the business knows.

I noticed on page 36 (I think),

“ Foreign companies have periodically faced contract frustration when dealing with the government given endemic corruption and occasional conflicting interests with the local economic elite. However, the government is wary of undermining foreign interest in the non-phosphate mining sector, limiting the threat of similar contract risks for foreign companies. Contract risk to foreign companies occur when companies - or the governments of the countries in which they are based - have expressed support for Western Saharan independence.”

I wasn’t clear why they called out ‘non-phosphate’. Graham must have known about ask of this for Rupert to be a non-exec and as basic awareness for anyone in the sector. Hayden presumably ejected with the easy stuff, largely in the business’ control, done. I’m pretty sure they marketed this as a ‘low risk’ regulatory environment.

If I had to guess, I’d imagine Reminex was either forced on the business or appointed to curry favour, but obviously hasn’t worked. You have to wonder about the backstory when paid for advice from consultants from a state owned company cannot, for several years, satisfy the requirements set by the same state. Maybe I’m missing something?

I can see it make sense for GSM to sell their stake to OCP and then we would be in the right place, imho.

Testpack, Reminex is owned by Managem, which is owned by the King. OCP is 95% owned by the state, controlled by the King. SOU recently sold Moroccan operations to Managem and I saw that your post on that board.

Is there any read across that we can take from SOU (I don’t follow it), most concerning would be a general pattern against foreign oil, gas minerals companies, or any belief that they must be state owned?

Wikipedia allegations of corruption, include [FN1]:

“ The documents released by the whistleblower website also quote the case of a businessman working for a US consortium, whose plans in Morocco were paralysed for months after he refused to join forces with a company linked with the royal palace. The documents quoted a company executive linked to the royal family as saying at a meeting that decisions on big investments in the kingdom were taken by only three people: the king, his secretary Mounir Majidi, and the monarch's close friend, adviser and former classmate Fouad Ali El Himma.”

Hard to see Graham muscling though, if we were in that situation, so curious about SOU. If that is the marketplace and Graham has an ex-ambassador on the Board, how could he not be savvy to this and have turned away from OCP (95% state owned, let’s remember, so basically the state).

Even if it was them giving him the brush off, he would surely have been able to deduce that it would be fatal if he lost state support, when they hold the permits.

[FN1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_VI_of_Morocco#Allegations_of_corruption

If we do a deal to process at OCP’s production hub inland, we could solve the problem but I imagine lose on the economics.

Graham will have spent the last three months at the bank if he needs to raise another 100m USD for a pipeline.

If the state owned supplier is doing this, it must be considered ‘necessary’. KMP alone would fall short. If we could licence it and connect into OCP’s pipeline so both require less water then that would be good but 100m before build is dealing at a capex level we’re not at.

Maybe CRUI is saying to Graham, ‘we’ll award it tomorrow if you can operate with no local water, come back when you’re there’, explaining why he says he’s on good terms.

Graham can surely only produce the Q3 update we need by delaying it each day in hope of a decision, because he has to communicate meaningful news immediately by RNS and we’ve had none.

I’m preparing myself that it could be frustrating.

Last year, the Q3 update arrived a week from now.

Panmure Liberum is paid by and, at the time of appointment has been incentivised by shares held in, Emmerson.

Seperate from all of that is whether the KMP process is a ‘game changer’. The ‘game’ here is getting a licence to operate. So far, it hasn’t resulted in a licence, so hasn’t been a game changer.

Graham’s been ‘very confident’ the permit is around the corner for three years, so it’s hard to rely on his word.

Whether it yet proves to be a ‘game changer’ is anyone’s guess. Hope it is!

"This year is a big year - we have to tick off a few milestones, but the aim is to be in construction by the end of the year. We need our environmental permission, which we are very confident we will get in the next month or so, having already got the mining licence."

Emmerson CEO Graham Clarke aims for Moroccan potash mine to be in construction by year-end, 25th March 2021.

Source: https://www.lse.co.uk/media/emmerson-ceo-graham-clarke-aims-for-moroccan-potash-mine-to-be-in-construction-by-year-end.html (video removed)