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Interestking

It’s actually higher than I first read – as I said, it was a quick scan, and I’d like to read it deeper this evening.

“the conversion price of all notes issued under the Facility ("Notes") has been amended from 2.5p to 0.8p”

“the provider has agreed to make an immediate additional £2 million subscription for Notes on an unconditional basis”

- £2,000,000 / 0.8p = 250m

“the last date for subscription for further amounts of Notes, up to the total undrawn Facility availability of £10 million, is extended to 16 April 2021, and this date will be extended further to 30 June 2021 if a minimum of £8.5 million of Notes in aggregate have been subscribed for by 16 April 2021. “

- £10,000,000 / 0.8P = 1.25bn

Plus 135m shares "in lieu of cash settlement of a number of current financial obligations"

So, potentially 1.385bn

But note “The ability to draw-down on these remaining funds remains subject to satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, which the Company and the provider are engaging on collaboratively;”, so in fact the second tranche hasn’t even been signed off yet.

Honest opinion is that they are still working on juggling the books, but hopefully, they will provide a full, transparent update soon. So I remain of the opinion as before, the share is a Hold (it's now range-bound), until we know more.

The concern for all serious investors has to be that we are still totally in the dark about the current financial situation of the company, no matter what the day traders say with their posts full of snipbits!

good post, khonsu

Gino, not on penny shares with a trajectory of dilution.

It took Volantis/LO a couple of months to shift about 350m shares.

With potentially 1bn plus shares being dripped onto the market at 0.8p until the end of June, then this share is going to be landlocked at 0.8p. I can't in fact see how the company will be able to move that many shares.

I can't see how any rampers or 'shorters' are going to make money, either, so no spikes.

1, 135bn shares - ignore pound sign!

Disappointingly very vague statement on the cash situation
-£11m, of which £3m allocated to Saffron, but no update on the well completion costs or, more importantly, that $12m bucket for legal, mergers and financing, other than informing us of the costs of paying off Volantis

Need to further assimilate, but looks like:

Convertible Note renegotiated
135m shares enlargement now at 0.8p
Possible further 250m by April 16th, with prospective further 750m share issue by June 30

So potential £1.135bn dilutions, which is more or less as expected.

The company can simply pay interest on the extended note, or issue additional shares to the note holder as payment, so potential for further dilution there.

21 alpha, I will look too, just that I'm been a bit busy away from the screen the last few days. At the mo, no real change, strong support on the bid at 0.60 (x4 MMs), Ask still at x2 MMs.

Price to buy sizable amounts just under 0.7p, still attracting interest. Around 0.65 to sell. So prob. a bit weaker than AM but generally steady.

so, a very normal day, then.

If the shares were in demand you wouldn't have such a spread, such a small volume, and 4 MMs on the bid and 2 on the Ask.

To add, he's been spot on every inch of the way around being fully, fully, fully funded.

21alpha. In my experience, OMJ is usually spot on, even though it may hurt investors' feelings. Here's a tweet ahead of the drill outcome RNS.

Lombard Odier responded to one of my tweets concerning Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC). Regarding their investment into BPC, they say: “We regret this situation and are taking the necessary actions to address it. This investment decision was not aligned to our commitment to sustainability and our strategic investment framework.” I don’t know at which level this was written, but the statement would ring a lot more true if they hadn’t negotiated a very special guaranteed 15% profit arrangement with the company. The drill result here is imminent, but it appears Lombard Odier isn’t too confident.

Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC) announced its widely expected duster and the price collapsed by 70%. The well did encounter hydrocarbons, but it’s very rare that an oil drill does not. The issue of course is commerciality. It’s important to understand that the most likely end result with any of these AIM/London small cap oil projects is failure, particularly so if no farm-out to an actual oil company has been achieved. That’s why I believe they’re generally only worth buying for a short-term run up to a potentially transformational event and only when fully financed for that. Remember also that anything like a convertible loan in place is more or less certain to kill any upwards momentum dead. BPC was a particularly difficult one for investors, given its haphazard funding approach and the shareholder abusive nature of most of it. It’s curious that drilling stopped well short of target depth, but perhaps the company simply ran out of money, which would explain why Lombard Odier had to dump fast, since BPC wouldn’t have had the cash needed to reimburse their likely substantial losses in the event of a dry hole. Lombard Odier had a rather special agreement in relation to their investment in the company, guaranteeing them a minimum profit of 15% on their share purchase and indemnifying them against any loss. Company law is different in the Isle of Man, and not in a good way for shareholders.

*tight spreads

Fatal

You have been around these boards long enough now to have learned that for any reporting platform the estimation of buys and sells depends on the algorithm used by that platform, will differ for each platform and that the LSE platform doesn't cope well with large spreads.

I can tell you be with 100% confidence that if a SP closes on the day higher than when it opened then there will have been more buys and sells, and that if it closes lower then there will have been more sells than buys. It is that simple, and no matter how many times you get the colouring book out it isn't going to change that fact.

For sure, the MMs have a few games up their sleeves to encourage intraday trading, but to suggest that they are deliberately holding back the share price is a false accusation and frankly is the age old complaint of the frustrated shareholder.

A solid wall of MMs at 0.5p could indicate that this is where it's expected the funding will be at, in which case, now would be the time to buy. But I'd rather lose some profit and derisk on known facts.

https://testnet.injective.exchange/

Working going on elsewhere for similar in shares

Don't tell him Pike, it's a trap.

Donato - it's all in the presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flMS2gHFOH0

yes, I hear from jmann that laallee is currently holding Potter ramson at the dentists, threatening to cut shards of gold out of his fillings

rocket, did you mistype your new name then?

Was here (a loooooong time), could still be here, not sure, waiting for the company to tell us what cash they have and what their funding plans are.

I think the best case view would be $5m left, if you take the lower estimated amount of the drill (which I assume include p&a activities).

P1 - $24 to 28m + $7m contingencies
T&T - $20m
Op Costs - $11m
Liabilities - Legal fees, Merger, Financing costs - $12m

Total $78m (of which $72m was funded, including the CLN and LO call)

Cash $52m.

I think we can assume that Opc costs and liabilities etc have been safeguarded, which is $23m.

Let's assume the best case for the drill, $24m.

So, $47m plays $52m, means $5m left

But if they maxed the full estimate of the drill $28m, then £1m.

But it’s all a bit of an if until they tell us, as well do not how the $12m account is going to be used towards any of the above, in detail.