RE: Potential Sevenfold Return17 Jul 2023 23:49
Extract from Simon Thompson:
“De-risking the investment case
CleanTech is not a one-trick pony as the 2023 drilling programme on its Francisco Basin project has now completed. In the coming weeks, the directors expect to report a JORC resource upgrade on the maiden JORC inferred resource estimate (0.53mn LCE at an average grade of 305mg/Li), which was based on the first of four drilling wells completed before the Chilean winter break.
The scoping study is also nearing completion, having commenced in the fourth quarter of 2022, and will follow the release of the JORC resource upgrade. Bearing this in mind, Francisco Basin’s base-case production rate is likely to be similar to Laguna Verde, thus highlighting the strong fundamentals.
Despite the positive newsflow, CleanTech’s share price has traded sideways since the country’s government announced its National Lithium Strategy three months ago (‘State intervention has made this lithium company a bargain’, 24 April 2023). However, President Gabriel Boric and Minister of Mining, Marcela Hernando, have both pointed out that the government will only seek control of the operation in projects that are considered ‘strategic’. Currently, the only strategic lithium area is in Salar de Atacama.
CleanTech’s board has confirmed that the company’s projects are not subject to majority state participation requirements. However, as the company works towards licensing it may opt to invite the state to take a minority stake in its projects, thus aligning interests and allaying investor concerns.
Material undervaluation
So, although CleanTech’s share price remains the laggard in my 2023 Bargain Share Portfolio, I firmly believe that the potential for unlocking the value embedded in its key projects is being materially undervalued in the company’s £42.5mn market capitalisation. I am not the only one thinking this way as Canaccord Genuity’s 295p target price is more than seven times the current share price.
That target may seem punchy until you note that Arkansas-based Standard Lithium’s (US:SLI) has an enterprise valuation of C$945mn (£550mn) even though its lithium reserves are only twice as large as CleanTech’s. Buy.”