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The volume today was 395000 which means just £50000 has changed hands. This is very low volume but very high in CNR’s recent history. It is scandalous that the MM’s in their desperation to get some trading in this share have dropped it 7.5%.

There is no reason to believe there is a problem with the sale process.

But let’s remember the reason this sales process is being conducted as an asset sale. The board were clear from the start that the share price was so far removed from the value of Condor on any normal industry metric that they could not go for a share sale. This has only become more apparent as time has passed and the sp has fallen further.

The volumes are so low because most investors have taken their positions and are awaiting the completion of the sale process, which could become a share sale once the proper value is crystallised.

The sp at this point is totally irrelevant and we must await the completion of the sale process. It is impressive that there are no leaks about progress and those of us with any understanding of commercial negotiations know that any attempt at a running commentary by Mark would be counterproductive.

Wiggly

Many of us would like to about the small AT trades that have been the main feature of the last couple of weeks trading. As we know CHAR is always priced to the last AT trade. For the last 2 days we have seen bursts of larger AT trades which have pushed the sp up before being pulled back by the small AT trades which seem to be in firm control of the price. Since the EIA RNS the daily volume has increased sharply to just over 3 million on Tuesday and Wednesday. Today we are seeing mostly small AT with only a few larger ones but there have been some larger O trades which are not necessarily denoted correctly for example the largest O trade 140000 at 14.08 is show as a sell although it was definitely a buy.

Someone is accumulating a lot of shares at around 14p using this AT trading to control the rise you would expect from the volumes we are seeing. When they have got enough we should see a sharp rise in the sp if my theory is correct, or we may have to wait for the next news and much higher volume to regain control of the sp.

Yes he has bought shares and has increased his holding from 7.57% to 9.26%. Very positive to see the man who started the company as Fast Forward after his book is increasing his stake. Let’s also remember that SEED is invested in some Jim Mellon companies so he has the inside track on how they are going to do.

King Smyth is talking to himself again even though he/she is fooling no one. However as they asked about broker updates here are the current ones:

“ The 5 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Chariot Ltd have a median target of 47.72, with a high estimate of 60.07 and a low estimate of 34.56. The median estimate represents a 235.60% increase from the last price of 14.22.”

Malcy’s long term target for which he doesn’t give a timescale is 100p which in view of the 12 month targets actually seems rather conservative. Some of you may recall that 2/3 years ago AP said that each of the 3 pillars of Chariots business had the potential to be £1 Billion businesses in their own right. Malcy’s 100p only values CHAR at £1 Billion so it well within the CEO’s ambitions.

The above is not ramping by me as it’s simply reporting the views of analysts.

The AT trades have pulled the closing sp down to 14.02p on virtually identical 3 million volume to yesterday. But be under no illusion that the sp is being manipulated. If you look at the actual trades and the volume the actual prices paid for most of today’s volume was much higher than 14.02. Much of it was above 14.2 and upto 14.78 was paid.

The good news is that a large investor is very keen to keep acquiring CHAR shares and has stepped its volume up since the EIA gave us the green light for the “very exciting weeks ahead” ( to use the words of CHAR’s Country Director)

The sp is rising again the AT trades large and small are now at 14.30 with volume of 1.32 million. Looks like the second day of larger AT trades as the accumulation picks up pace.

The price of the small AT trades has been increasing gradually all morning and now joined by larger AT trades we are off to the races Up 3.9% at 14.78p on volume of 1.1 million. But then marked down to 14.18 on a small AT trade.

Jagua

Like you I am very keen to know what is going on with these small AT trades which have been the dominant number of trades for a couple of weeks. If we look at what has happened since the small AT trades started I have to agree with your comment that it has kept the price down in the 14p range. If we assume this trading strategy is the work of one individual or institution their aim is presumably to acquire shares at this price. During this time the total volume of shares traded in the 14p range is about 13 million. Yesterday’s volume of 3 million was the highest for some time and for the first time we saw bursts of much larger AT trades. It will be interesting to see how today goes as we have already seen a number of Large AT trades of upto 50000 at 14.2p and 14.2 has been the price for the large O trades that have gone through.

My speculation is that an institution is using this to build a position prior to the big news we are expecting and yesterdays EIA signalling the green light caused them to step up their efforts because this could start to move quickly any day now.

The small AT trades continue but there have been some larger AT buys of upto 50000 which have been at 14.2p. These ar not reflected in the stated sp which as always is the last AT trade price.

SP has now returned to the opening price with 6 million buys v 2 million sells. Yesterday’s RNS is not relevant to Ruvuma and that news was in the public domain and on the bb’s on Monday.

“Trinity Delta view: Scancell’s cash runway extends to early 2025, covering important clinical milestones for both SCIB1 and Modi-1 programmes. The highly impressive initial SCOPE data effectively demonstrate the value of the SCIB vaccine in combination with CPIs, suggesting results from the second stage (due in H124) could be similarly positive. Early clinical data from the Modi-1 ModiFY study will also be available in 2024. Encouraging clinical outcomes would validate both the ImmunoBody and Moditope vaccine platforms and likely stimulate industry partnering interest. Licencing interest is also expected for the GlyMab and AvidiMab antibody platforms as Business Development activity is ramped up. Our Scancell rNPV based valuation is £300.1m, or 36.7p/share.”

Trinity’s valuation is 3x the current share price.

The sale process is happening until they announce a sale or that it isn’t happening. No one on this bb knows anything about the sale process so the continuing chatter and speculation is entirely pointless. I will rejoin the conversation when there is something new to say which will hopefully be an RNS confirming a binding offer. The current strength of gold and positive views going forward can only help the process.

The volume reached 3.03 million which is the highest volume since the 22nd September. We have seen short bursts of much larger AT trades including 109000 at 14.2p The larger AT trades have been at 14.20 and 14.26. But when the small AT trades resume they are at 14.12p. As we know CHAR is always priced to the latest AT trade so we are not getting a proper indication of what the mid price should be. These small trades are controlling the price but the arrival of the larger AT trades is something we haven’t seen for some time. The tide appears to be turning and as the volume increases the likely hood of this moving quickly north on a wave of large AT trades gets ever more likely.

But we will have to wait to see if tomorrow brings that wave. Today CHAR closed Up 3.8% at 14.22p which is less than one expect on todays good news which was described as the Green Light for Anchois. They have been working on the EIA for over 12 months and it seems, as you would expect, that the partner and financial institutions would not give final sign off until the EIA was approved. They are now clear to start work offshore, onshore and on the link to the pipeline.

The company is talking about “very exciting weeks ahead” so keep a look out for some 7am RNS.

The volume has now reached 2.8 million which is the highest volume since the 22nd September. We are seeing short bursts of much larger AT trades including 109000 at 14.2p The larger AT trades have been at 14.20 and 14.26. But when the small AT trades resume they are at 14.12p. As we know CHAR is always priced to the latest AT trade so we are not getting a proper indication of what the mid price should be. These small trades are controlling the price but the arrival of the larger AT trades is something we haven’t seen for some time. The tide is turning and as the volume increases the likely hood of this moving quickly north on a wave of large AT trades gets ever more likely.

26 AT trades of 5000 each just went through at14.2p in the space of 1 minute. This is more like what we saw in times gone by when the share was going on a roll. It could be an interesting afternoon.

The Proactive interview with the Morocco Country Director has some very positive points:

The EIA has taken 12 months to achieve with considerable help from their Moroccan government partners.

This approval is the Green Light for the project.

There are “very exciting weeks ahead”

The largest trade of the day has just gone through an O trade Buy of 200000 at 14.3p, which is also the highest price paid so far. Perhaps we are going to see some serious volume kick in as investors realise the big news is very close. The broker notes are coming out to remind us of the considerable upside.

The price at which the AT trades are being made has now started to increase quite quickly. Now Up 4.2% at 14.28p on volume of 1.28 million.

Jagua

It would be very interesting to know who is behind all the small AT trades that have caused this share to trade within a very narrow spread for the last 10 days. It has been walked down from 15p very slowly to 14p. Let’s see if following todays news they start to walk it up again as the small AT trades continue to account for at least 90% of the 136 trades so far today.

Let’s just repeat what Jimmy said with the first post today.

This is GREAT NEWS.

“ Securing approval of this EIA is a major milestone for Anchois and is the culmination of extensive time and teamwork that has gone into this critical process. This is a key building block for sanctioning the project's development, alongside other activities such as our partnering process which is close to conclusion.”

This EIA was clearly a necessary precursor to finalise the partnering process which is CLOSE TO CONCLUSION.

This is a very clear signal that announcement of the Partner can now land any day.

We had the last Ruvuma Operations Update RNS on 12th July 2023, which is well worth a read if you need refreshing on progress. It’s 3 months since that update and last year we had an Update on 1st November. It will be surprising if we don’t receive an update this week.