Member Info for ICB888

I can’t get a live quote on II or Barclays and that’s been the case all morning. It could be an interesting afternoon as it looks like a major movement in the price is going to be required to get some trading going. After 4 hours just 14 trades for volume of 142000 of which 120000 are Buys. The last trade was at 11.02 just over 1 hour ago.

Last Tuesday GCM closed at 0.90 on volume of 0. Yesterday it closed at 2.10 after 4 days during which the total volume was circa 12 million. This morning GCM is up 7.1% on volume of 30000 and it is not possible to get a live quote to buy or sell on II.

This is looking different to many rises we have seen in recent years particularly if it continues to rise into a second week. The news from Bangla is looking promising in the run up to the Election and GCM has extended its cash runway to end of March without going to the market. If this rise continues we could well see fireworks.

There are a number of items regarding Ruvuma that are very close to completion. None of these items can be sorted out by AEX as they are not within its power. ARA are the operator and all agreements are their responsibility, although not all are within their power to sort either as they involve the Government. Here is an extract from the recent interim report:

“Gas Sales Agreement ("GSA"), approved by all parties, is with the Attorney General of Tanzania for final review. It is expected to be signed in the coming month.

· The Field Development Plan ("FDP") for developing the Ntorya Area is approved by all parties.

· The relevant Tanzanian Authorities have approved the Development Licence for the Ntorya Area and, as required by law, it is with the Cabinet of Ministers for final approval. The issuance of the Development Licence significantly de-risks the project, locking in the development of Ruvuma for twenty-five years.”

The first and last point require Government final signatures which are expected imminently. All LTH here are well aware that delays by Government have delayed this project for years but the new Government has said they have changed and will get things done. They have approved the sale by SCIP to ARA which will now enable the correct license holders names to go on the 25 year licence which is with the cabinet of Ministers for approval now.

News should land any day regarding the Government approvals following which everything else will quickly slot in place. Essentially no one is going to commit to anything else until all Government approvals are in place, which is sound business practice and common sense when you know the history.

Gold has just opened in Asian markets and has gone ballistic Up 50 points at 2121. Let’s see how it’s doing when the UK market opens but it looks as if TRR should have a good start to the month with all its gold royalties.

Gold has just opened in Asian markets and has gone ballistic Up 50 points at 2121. Let’s see how it’s doing when the UK market opens but it looks as if SHG should have a good start to the month.

Just to try to cheer everyone up from the IC :

“ The 2 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Bango plc have a median target of 322.17, with a high estimate of 334.78 and a low estimate of 309.57. The median estimate represents a 92.34% increase from the last price of 167.50.”

Good to see AUGM Number 15 on the Leaderboard Up 8.52% at 90.82p on the back of today’s interim report although it has just fallen back to 88p:

“ Financial highlights

• NAV per share after performance fee1 increased by 0.8% to 160.2p (31 March 2023: 158.9p).

• IRR of 16.6%2 on invested capital since inception (31 March 2023: 18.5%)

• Available cash at period end of £51.8 million (free cash of £48.0 million) with no debt (31 March 2023: £38.5 million).

• Repurchased 3,918,878 shares over the period, at an average price of 99.2p per share.”

This share price of 90p is totally ridiculous against an NAV per share of 160p of which £51.8 million is in cash. The assets are performing well:

“ The top 10 holdings, which represent 82% of portfolio value, grew revenue at an average of 74%3 YoY and have an average of 29 months cash runway. 4 of the top 10 positions are cash generative.

• The sum value of the top three holdings in Tide, Grover, and Zopa, plus current cash, is above the Company’s market capitalisation. These positions continue to demonstrate their credentials as fintech market leaders, growing revenues by an average of over 1,200% since the Company’s investment and are either profitable or capitalised until projected profitability.”

This is due a large rerate and I am looking forward to the Investor presentation on Thursday.

Happy days ,you posed the question “ Why are Jubilee not promoting the hell out of this revolutionary copper modular technology??”

If you listen to Leon in the Mid week take away you will find the answer. Essentially JLP have market leading technology which competitors will be very interested in. My interpretation is that JLP wants to get its modules fully tested and with proven results and one would hope patented. He also said he wanted to secure large amounts of the waste materials before others realise how valuable they actually are. The Mopani deal will be very exciting and will be explained in detail very soon.

Up 4% at 12.475p as the volume reaches 6.5 million in 2.5 hours trading trading. What I like with gold holding over 2000 and currently 2015 is that SHG takes instant benefit from its gold sales as it is unhedged.

This is shaping up to be a very good day for SHG.

Today the first tranche of the placing shares have been listed and are available for trading. This is possibly adding to price weakness as some placees may sell immediately and just rely on the warrants to cover future upside. The future for the company looks bright so the opportunity to buy below the placing price probably won’t last too long.

The price paid is rising as the morning progresses and 200000 at 11.9332p is taking this ever closer to 12p.

Up 1.9% on volume that is equal to or higher than the last 4 trading days after just 1 hour of trading. We were told of an exciting few weeks on 31st October and imminent news. Weeks will turn into a month if we don’t receive news this week so it should be an interesting week.

Some decent buys coming in now to take the volume over 1 million on what has been a quit day so far with most trades designated sells even though they are buys.

When Malcy commented last week about JOG and NEO regarding some progress on t Buchan field he said:

“ This is another piece of good news from JOG who are clearly working extremely hard in order to deliver the GBA in a remarkably short time frame. Firstly it is a really good, young piece of kit, I think that it is a really good boat and has only been operating since 2017 which makes it a perfect fit for Buchan and I’ve seen a few FPSO’s…

Costs will be within the capex as defined in the FEED process which is making ‘good progress’ as is the FDP where the draft and environmental data is expected to be submitted later this year with approval at present hoped for in H2 2024. And of course JOG benefits from triggering of payments following the NEO farm-out, today’s transaction results in a $9.4m credit and another $12.5m on FDP approval.

The company are also in negotiations with regard to further farm-out of the GBA and today’s announcement will surely have accelerated that process, discussions are continuing but there is no formal guidance as to how long it will take. Overall this is a superb result, it gives tangibility to the project both from an investor and an industry perspective and firms up the overall time scale, apart from anything else it proves that electrification and movement towards a low carbon strategy can and will happen and thus this is a leading light project for the whole industry.

I have always said that the value of JOG is significantly above current levels and as progress like this keeps happening that value realisation becomes more visible. The GBA project is of such scale that once it is fully underway my Target Price for JOG of £10 per share could easily be an underestimate”

Well we now know who the other farm out partner is! I am sure Malcy will be commenting again today as JOG and SQZ are both in his bucket list 2023. He is saying the Buchan field should lead to at least a 4x increase in JOG’s share price. SQZ is more than 10x the size of JOG so we are not looking at that sort of increase here, however he will clearly be putting a big valuation on SQZ’s larger 30% share of Buchan. Once the market has digested this news I would expect SQZ’s share price to move considerably higher than 3.4%. SQZ is seriously underrated at its current sp without today’s deal imho.

Malcy will no doubt have something to say on his next blog as both JOG and SQZ are on his 2023 bucket list. SQZ now has a larger share of GBA than JOG so he should have very positive things to say about both.

Todays start looking good with a couple of decent buys 100000@11.644, 150000@ 11.70 and 150000@11.68. If this continues 12p must be on the cards today.

Nickshaw11, I must apologise for my post regarding 2 outstanding Government approvals. There aren’t any outstanding because the EIA was the last one and gave the green light for Anchois. They are clear to conclude the deal with the partner and the financiers, those are the items we are waiting for. I was confusing a very similar situation at AEX where they are imminently awaiting 2 Government signings before commencing a long delayed dril.

Smith, In answer to your question I will repost from a couple of days ago:

“ We may be overdue but it is outside CHAR’s control because it involves Government approvals. The first of these was the EIA 3 weeks ago as per this from the RNS:

“ Pierre Raillard, Head of Gas Business and Morocco Country Director at Chariot commented:

"Securing approval of this EIA is a major milestone for Anchois and is the culmination of extensive time and teamwork that has gone into this critical process. This is a key building block for sanctioning the project's development, alongside other activities such as our partnering process which is close to conclusion. On behalf of Chariot, I would like to thank the National Environmental Committee and the Ministry for their endorsement and support. I would also like to thank the Chariot team, our partner ONHYM and our consultants who collaborated so closely across all workstreams. We are fully committed to ensuring that Anchois is developed in line with best practice as set out in the report."

That RNS set the end game in progress as it was a prerequisite for the 2 further Government approvals we have been told are very close just awaiting a final signature. There is no suggestion that there is an issue with the final approvals which should land any day now. Clearly the Partner and Financiers will want all those approvals in place before they announce and commit. I imagine they are conditions precedent to deals that are already agreed. Keep checking for RNS at 7am each morning.”

We have had plenty of slowly and steadily for months. As SHG starts to have 12p in its sights it will only then return to the level it was before Odey had to dump all their shares because someone was too fond of the ladies. Just think where the sp would be now if it wasn’t for the Odey induced fall. I would suggest the rise from 9p would have been a rise from 12p and we would have been at 15p.

Now Up 2.9% at 11.525p on volume of 849000. Looking like another good volume day to maintain the rise.