Valuation13 Dec 2023 12:39
We are pretty much in the position we were last December with the shares issued at 15p as the sale process was announced. I just looked at a post I did on 1st December last year which includes Condor’s valuation. It is as relevant today as it was then but more so because then higher gold prices were being talked about, whereas now it is a proven reality.
“ The valuations that are being suggested are not the figures I would be using if I were Hannon. They should be presenting the big picture not just what is being presented in the BFS which is on a relatively small part of the total assets in order to keep the initial costs down and then expand on cash flow. A big miner will not have those constraints and could fund a bigger operation from day 1. Let’s also remember that other drilling has been done which supports the view regularly stated by Mark that this is a 5 million oz+ gold district. This potential has to have a significant value attached to it. Let’s look at something Condor published last year:
“ On 25 October 2021 Condor announced the filing of a Preliminary Economic Assessment Technical Report (“PEA”) for its La India Project, Nicaragua on SEDAR https://www.sedar.com. The highlight of the technical study is a post-tax, post upfront capital expenditure NPV of US$418 million, with an IRR of 54% and 12 month pay-back period, assuming a US$1,700 per oz gold price, with average annual production of 150,000 oz gold per annum for the initial 9 years of gold production. The open pit mine schedules have been optimised from designed pits, bringing higher grade gold forward resulting in average annual production of 157,000 oz gold in the first 2 years from open pit material and underground mining funded out of cashflow”
That just relates to La India Project so 150000 ozs per annum for 9 years is 1.35 Million ozs at $1700 . The total value of the gold mined would be US$2.295 BILLION and of course many people believe gold will be much higher than $1700. If we say the costs to mine it are 50% of that the profit would be US$1.147 BILLION. If there are 5 million ozs multiply the profit by 3.7 to get to a profit of US$4.25 BILLION.
Hannon should be able to convince buyers £1 per share is a reasonable starting price for bids when the ultimate profit will be so high. £1 per share would require a bid of £159 million based on the present shares in issue.”
More shares in issue now but arguably the valuation should be higher because of the gold price and as we all know as the gold price rises it has an exponential effect on profits.