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Surfit

You have just repeated your ramblings and deramping that you were shot down in flames for earlier in the week. You are speculating and taking wild stabs in the dark to produce negativity. As more than one poster has said it is completely pointless trying to speculate on cash flow until we know how much cash our new partner will give us.

If you want to do something useful and are very keen on the cash flow, are you able to calculate how much cash we need to receive to see us through to production and income?

The London Stock Exchange revealed on Thursday that it is investigating an "incident."

Trading on FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and IOB securities is "still operating normally" but "orders in all other instruments currently halted will now be expired," the LSE said in a notice.

The exchange said it will "provide further updates" on the situation.

There was no trading offered on AIM stocks late afternoon today I tried 3.

The London Stock Exchange revealed on Thursday that it is investigating an "incident."

“Trading on FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and IOB securities is "still operating normally" but "orders in all other instruments currently halted will now be expired," the LSE said in a notice.

The exchange said it will "provide further updates" on the situation.“

Stock Exchange announcement. I note the last trade in JLP was at 14.44. I tried to place an order a few minutes before the close and no live price. The same on 2 other AIM stocks.

What happened to M&P and Wentworth just goes to show how prudent it was for ARA to get the transfer from SCIR fully completed before the next steps which we are expecting imminently. Investors in AeX are only too aware of the problems and delays involved in getting consents historically from the Government of Tanzania. If those delays had not occurred AEX would have been pumping gas for years just like M&P/Wentworth.

As we wait to find out who CHAR’s partner will be for Anchois it is interesting to note what our partner on our Renewables and Hydrogen businesses had to say at the conference in the same discussion as the speaker from Chariot:

“ Jérôme Paillat, Senior LNG Project Director - TotalEnergies Gas, Renewable&Power emphasized that Gas-to-power is an enabler to meet the gross demand in terms of electricity. “Electricity is the way people are going to consume power in the next few years so power is very important. Most of the electricity the growth will be driven by renewable but gas to power is very important,” he said.”

I have said this before but bearing in mind the existing relationships and the fact that TotalEnergies are already in Morocco, wouldn’t Total be the ideal partner for Anchois and the adjoining licenses?

It is obviously good that SEED is able to buy back shares every day at such a large discount to NAV thereby increasing the NAV per share of the remaining shares at low cost. This will be fine as long as the sp at the end of this process is above the 4p when the buyback started and hopefully at 6p+ to reflect the higher NAV per share. It would be good for Ed to comment on how this is going to happen. Also I think we were expecting an imminent deal and I wonder when that news will arrive.

This is the prior part of the article which sets out the Lithium shortage that is building:

“ Simply mining

The supply alerts continue to be sounded: “The challenge is simply mining. You can only ask the existing industry to do so much,” says Simon Moores, the founder of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “Exploration needs to go through the roof, [and] it needs to be supported by governments and industry,” he added.

Replacing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with EVs could take longer than anticipated given the broader difficulties of the shift, such as providing adequate recharging infrastructure. But the expansion of manufacturing capacity already is still staggering: the average capacity of a battery plant has grown from 5 gigawatt hours (GWh) a year to 15GWh a year, enough for 200,000 Tesla Model 3s. The industry overall has just passed 1TWh, or 1,000GWh in total production capacity, according to Benchmark.

“[There is] a massive escalation of demand,” says Benchmark chief data officer Caspar Rawles. The ultimate impact on the lithium market is a deficit forecast for the end of the decade of 500,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent. This will rise to 1.5mn tonnes by 2035. This means there will be more price volatility to come, Rawles says, despite industry efforts to smooth input costs through long-term supply contracts and hedging.

For investors in the mining space, this points to higher prices. However, companies need to be producing lithium to pass on those price gains. ”

There is an excellent opportunity for CTL to become a serious player in this market and that’s why Simon Thompson and other analysts are predicting a 7 bagger. The fall today and in recent days is difficult to understand but to look on the bright side it’s a buying opportunity at a price I didn’t think we would see again. The recent history reminds us that this could go back up to 60p + even more quickly than it has come down.

Why lithium miners are falling behind in the EV race

Carmakers and battery companies keep expanding capacity but lithium supply will soon fall short of demand

October 18, 2023

By Alex Hamer

This is the part that mentions CTL:

“ And building mines is expensive. At the smaller end of the spectrum, there are projects such as CleanTech Lithium’s (CTL) brine operation in Chile, which according to a December 2022 estimate will cost just over $380mn to build. The company – one of Simon Thompson's 2023 Bargain Shares – has a market capitalisation of £44mn, so in using the usual mix of debt and equity funding it will take on significant risk and dilute shareholders. But this is the game. The upside comes from a potential buyout or a successful move towards production”

BDC agrees with me that your ramblings are pointless because the large amount of cash that will be provided by the partner will transform the situation. Surfit rambles to give a negative spin and I have answered his nonsense with a very simple statement which seems to have ruffled his feathers and he is now acting like a 5 year old with his infantile responses.

Anyway a couple of decent buys have come in to perk up the very low volume we have seen so far. 150000 at 14.78 and 100000 at 14.66. Let’s see what this afternoon brings.

The spread is hiding the buys today as it did yesterday. The trades at 1.26 and above are buys and at 1.22 they are sells. I have confirmed this with dummy trades. All trades so far are shown as sells except a very small 351 trade at 1.35p which is shown as a buy. A few of these small trades at 1.35p went through yesterday presumably to create an artificial spread.

News due any day now and perhaps like SCIR they could release it intra day.

What Surfit has chosen to omit from his ramble is that very soon the deal will be announced with a partner who will give CHAR a large amount of cash which will finance them through to production. His frequent rambling deramps get increasingly tedious.

An employee under the share option scheme buying 70000 shares at 22p when he/she could have bought in the market for 18p is good to see. The gold price is continuing to recover which seems to have stirred some small interest in CNR with 8 trades and volume of 173000. It is however rather sad that today is the highest turnover we have seen by some margin in the last 9 trading days. Let’s hope that a deal is in its final stages.

The buying has now kicked in with large buys coming through such that buy volume of 4 million is double the sell volume.5.95p and 6p now being paid as it tics Up 1%

This is the Chairman’s statement from the most recent RNS:

“ We are pleased to report that all activities on Ruvuma continue to progress under the efforts of the operator, ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited. We look forward to receiving a revised CPR based on the high-quality data achieved from the acquisition of the Ruvuma 3D seismic survey that will permit a complete revision of gas reserve and resource potential; a GSA and Development Licence; and Ntorya-2 well test soon. We also look forward to a rig contract for the drilling of the Chikumbi-1 well and the well workover of Ntorya-1 in the coming months. We support and encourage the efforts of the Tanzanian authorities to expedite the construction of a gas pipeline from Ntorya to the Madimba gas plant, which is crucial in bringing much needed gas from Ruvuma to the people of Tanzania. Finally, we look forward to completion of the 3D seismic acquisition programme by PanAfrican Energy Tanzania over the core area of the KNDL this year, which will provide valuable data to the Company and enable a better understanding of KNDL prospectivity."

You are right that the 3D seismic interpretation will come with the CPR but aren’t we expecting the CPR imminently?

Clearly as AEX has a 25% interest in the Ruvuma license it is of interest that the completion of the transfer of SCIR’s share to ARA has been completed. ARA now have the license as they want it fully approved by the Government. Crusty knows I don’t agree with his view that yesterdays SCIR RNS was totally irrelevant to AEX and its upcoming milestones. Strange then that the release of SCIR’s RNS mid morning yesterday was followed by a 15% rise in AEX’s share price on volume of 21million including a 2 million Buy at 1.39p. The market clearly doesn’t share Crusty’s view.

So as a matter of fact the SCIR transfer has now been completed prior to all the other news we are expecting imminently about Ruvuma. ARA are clearly very confident in Ruvuma being very successful because if you include their shareholding in AEX their interest ion Ruvuma is over 80% and they are financing all of it. I am hoping that with SCIR and its future payments now fully sorted ARA will release the 3D seismic. I am hopeful that ARA’s enthusiasm for Ruvuma indicates that there will be a major upgrade in the amount of gas further enhancing the value of AEX.

October should be a transformational month for AEX and it started in earnest yesterday.

Trading is very slow so far this morning with just 13 trades and volume of 1.3 million. This is very like yesterday when it was late morning before it got going and ended the day Up 15% on volume of 21 million. On several occasions yesterday it was not possible to get a live quote as the MM’s were struggling to get stock for the buyers. It will be interesting to see if today follows a similar pattern. The trigger yesterday was investors becoming aware of the SCIR RNS confirming competition of the Ruvuma sale to ARA. It is somewhat surprising that AEX have not released an RNS reporting that, but hopefully they will release one soon regarding advancing Ruvuma now SCIR are sorted.

It seems highly likely that Slater,who has said he invested for Zambia, believes in the Preferred Scenario and that is why he has remained the largest shareholder as the shareprice has fallen over the last 2 years. The potential returns from this low point are exceptional . It will be interesting to see if other institutions start to take stakes in the coming months at this bargain basement price.

A large late reported trade from 15.13 today reported after the close 2 million Buy at 1.39p the highest price paid today. Also the largest trade of the day by some margin taking the daily volume to 19.88 million. £27000 is a decent vote of confidence from someone who clearly believes this is going much higher. If the share closes at that level tomorrow it will set a new 52 week closing high which is currently 1.35p.

As an interesting aside the current 12 month AEX closing high is 1.35p set on 17th October 2022. If we don’t equal that today we should tomorrow as we are much closer to the prize 12 months on.

But the Sultan would say that wouldn’t he. It is called playing the game with the Government. ARA aren’t going to put in print that the Government needs to approve the SCIR deal before ARA fully commit, but I feel sure the Government know that has been the case. ARA want to get all approvals in place so the Government doesn’t have anything to hold over them. ARA are canny operators who know how to negotiate with African Governments.