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If you are increasing your use of coal as Bangladesh is, it makes no sense to import dirty low grade coal from India etc when you could use your own high grade coal. It smacks of corruption that you would import coal instead of using your own cheaper high grade coal. How can Hasina justify her opposition to Phulbari to the people of Bangladesh who are no suffering power cuts that could have been avoided if Phulbari was producing as it should be if she hadn’t blocked it since 2006.

The buying kicked in from noon and we have just seen the highest trade of the day a buy at full offer 1.20.

We also know that Jim Mellon has remained the largest shareholder for along time and has stepped up to provide the lions share of each placing. Jim Could provide all the financing for the mine if he was so minded. Jim knows what he is supporting and will want a very good return on his investment. If Jim wants Condor sold he has contacts at the top of many gold miners. Now is the time to sell or get a major player involved and I believe Mark has said 3 to 4 months before financing is in place, because he wants time to conclude a sale or get a major involved.

It is most likely that they are seeking a sale as the number one priority if it can be achieved as that will remove the need to complete the financing or to raise any interim funds. Jim Mellon becoming Chairman to determine strategy and because of his negotiating skills and contacts suggests we should not have too long to wait for news. It would seem unlikely if they are going the financing route that they would seek any further equity raise until that is completed, because they will want to reduce dilution by raising at a much higher sp.

Mark has run with this for so many years he definitely has the stamina to take this to production if we don’t have an imminent sale. I do believe he wants to sell now and if Jim agrees it will happen. But if we have to go to production do you really think he won’t see it through to his pay day after spending so much of his life in Nicaragua.

Let’s look at the RNS’s about the drill. First the RNS on 1st September:
“ Aminex is pleased to announce that seismic and commercial activities on the Ruvuma PSC continue to progress under the direction of the operator, ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT"):

· Over half of the seismic data has now been acquired over the Ntorya location.

· The seismic data required to evaluate the drilling location of the Chikumbi-1 ("CH-1") well is expected by mid-September 2022.

· APT anticipates the full seismic acquisition programme to be completed by mid-October 2022.”
Then the most recent on 30th September:
“ Ruvuma 3D seismic full acquisition of data expected to be completed by 8 October 2022, with processing and interpretation continuing into early 2023

-- Spudding of Chikumbi-1 remains on schedule for November 2022
-- KNDL 3D seismic acquisition programme expected to be completed before year end ”
Everything on track to spud in November was confirmed just 20 days ago so suggestions on this bb that this will not happen are totally without foundation in fact.

Apologies I did not intend to include the Material Upside Potential part but I don’t suppose it does any harm to remind ourselves that we are only scratching the surface with Anchois!

The last Update was in the Interim Results RNS on 14th September:
“ We are now developing a significant project which has 1.4 Tcf in 2C plus 2U total recoverable resources at Anchois and our team is fully focused on the FEED elements of the development plan, working alongside Schlumberger and Subsea 7 who we appointed in June. With Societe Generale leading the project financing, a Tie-In agreement signed with OHNYM post-period end providing access to the major Maghreb Europe Gas pipeline, ongoing offtake and strategic partnering discussions and our Environmental and Social Impact Assessment underway, we are looking to reach FID as soon as possible to start generating material cash flows thereafter.”
The share price closed at 19.25p on 14th September and since then it has slowly drifted down as we await further news. They are working on a number of fronts and it is important to maintain news flow. We had the pipeline agreement in early September and October news is now required.



Material Upside Potential

The exploration and appraisal drilling also served to derisk a range of targets, both in the Lixus licence where Anchois is located and also in surrounding acreage in the Rissana licence which we signed in February 2022. Early assessment of the areas in Rissana covered by 3D seismic, provides a total 2U prospective resource of over 7 Tcf, combining a high-graded prospect 'Emissole' within the lower risk Anchois Tertiary gas play and multi Tcf prospects in a higher-risk Mesozoic play, inherited from Chariot's legacy Mohammedia Offshore licence area.

It is important to read between the lines of the interview when you say it contains nothing new. In my opinion the most interesting part was the discussion about Jim Mellon stepping up to the most senior role in the company “to determine the path forward for the company”. Mark mentions this saying Jim has 18.7% to his 2.7% and mentions Jim’s negotiating skills, strategic vision and his extensive contacts.
The interviewer does not ask the obvious question about bids or a strategic partner but it is implicit in what Mark says about Jim that those are options where Jim would be invaluable.

The volume is now 171000 from 11 trades al of which are show as sells apart from this morning’s UT of 16000 at 33p. This is very misleading . The last trade of 22000 at 32.1p is definitely a buy and so in all likelihood are all the other trades above 32p, making the only definite sell the 50000 at31.5p. So the buying continues but we still await the next tick up.

The buy/sell information is as usual misleading due to the stated spread. Several trades during the day at 1.30’ totalling 892000 volume are being shown as unknown because they are at the mid price. In fact they are buys. There are more sells than buys so far today but that may change as the afternoon progresses and the MM’s have share’s available to fill orders.

I think the for sale sign has been up for some time and particularly post BFS with the presentations in the USA. The filing of the BFS in Canada is now imminent, which could be the trigger for bids to appear. Jim Mellon’s move to Chairman is a strong indication that serious discussions are underway that will benefit from his considerable experience of selling Resource Companies.

Todays volume from 4 trades of 43000 has already exceeded yesterdays 30900. The UT was a 16000 buy at 33p followed by 11000 at 32.2499 shown as a sell but actually a buy. Let’s see if the buying continues and we can see better volumes to keep this months rise continuing.

We appear to start the day down but that is only because we were closed at a high of 1.35p on the UT. As one would expect this was reversed on the opening and the spread is wider at 1.25/1.35. Let’s see how this goes today on a positive day for the markets generally. News could drop at anytime now on the seismic and the spud.

A very slow day with just 9 small trades for a volume of 30900, although that is 10000 more volume than las Monday. All 9 trades are shown as sells but 5 are actually buys. No trades in the last 3 hours .

Just moved Up 1.9% to 1.325 as the spread is narrowed by lifting the bid to 1.30p. MM’s seem keen to move it Up.

Absolutely correct Haggis. Most companies would be waiting for the drill results before raising funds to take it to production. But that doesn’t apply to AEX who are fully carried to production so have no need to raise further funds and indeed have said they won’t do so.

Todays trading is fairly slow with just 18 trades for a volume of 1.5 million. However buys outweigh sells nearly 3/1 and full ask of 1.35p has just been paid. Let’s see if the upwards movement continues as we await imminent news.

Just a recap on the share price since the BFS was announced on 12th September. On the Friday before the BFS the sp closed at 25.75p. On the day of the BFS it closed at 28.50p. It then had its ups and downs reaching 30p 5 times over the next month. On 12th October Jim Mellon was appointed Chairman and we closed on Friday at 32.25p giving a rise of 25% in the month since the BFS.
This has taken us back to the level of sp we saw in the first half of the year as we awaited the delayed BFS. Now we have it the sp should clearly much higher than it was while we awaited it. The move of Jim Mellon to Chairman suggests we are going to see some serious progress and one would hope the rerate would continue to 40p and beyond as we await the next news.

There are 5 trades so far today for a volume of 68000. They are all classified as sells when in fact the 4 that start with 32 are buys. It will be surprising if this doesn’t move up again today.