Frank James Smith's View on Sound Part 119 Oct 2019 19:40
Frank James Smith as you know used to do great wright-ups meeting JP and the company in the past, he sort of took over the crown where Crude left off, I last bumped into Frank on the Silver Sturgeon Sound Thames cruise, he has not posted much on Sound since that last meet up when he described the journey down to London with his daughter etc.
I wondered why and delved into Facebook to find this, which I had not seen before, some of you may have, this is just Frank's view on things from his Facebook post in May. At the end is another snippet as to why he no longer posts or meets with JP.
Frank James Smith 28 May
Not sure if this will be a popular opinion or not but I have been racking my brains and thinking of the value of sound with the current TE5 horst and the rest of the license area.
Is sounds 47.5% share of the gas at the TE5 horst likely to bring a higher LE sale price or is the rest of the licence with its potential likely to bring in a bigger price tag....here are my own personal thoughts....
$2bn worth of gas at te5 horst, sound share is 47.5% - $950m of that gas is owned by sound. Buyer might pay 25% of that top end so say $250m at best, they then need to pay for infrastructure and pipeline and wells and network and so on and so forth.....the rest of the licence has PROVED to be difficult to find more gas....TE8 (fail) TE9 (fail) TE10 (fail) there was an article called the north African paleozoic hydrocarbon systems (or something along those lines) it stated that the paleozoic in the north east of Morocco was a dwindling and eroded geology....it appears this is turning out to be the case, at best there could be 100 - 200 - 300bcf pools spread around the licence and it may take an uneconomical amount of infrastructure, exploration and wells to find and extract.....I can't see the licence, that is mainly unproven apart from te5 horst bringing in a premium for any LE / sale. I fear that JP spin, carrot dangling and salesman patter has created a retail monster over the last few years that has ended up in misery for thousands of investors.
The saving grace is the trading frenzy that may ensue while snippets of deals and who is looking over the fence will come to light from the sound salesman.....this could trade between 10 and 25p over the coming months but the end sale price could be a huge disappointment, there are more reasons to suggest the geology under the world class 1km salt seal is nothing more than an end of life gas field with pockets of hydrocarbons trapped in areas that are not particularly significant enough to get excited about; and then when and if they become a "discovery" like TE10 was banded as a new "discovery"....the hydrocarbons may prove to be bound in tight sands and non commercial....this is the pattern to date .....te8 had eroded westphalian sands.....te9 pure dust and te10 discovery too tight to become commercial.
See Part 2
Sign In
Follow the stocks
