Member Info for Iaintittle

Three observations;
1/ EMH needed to raise approaching 30m euros in order to fund the DFS. Around March last year when the deal was done our shares were trading at around 20p which would have lead to a placement of around 130 million shares to be added to our own ~145 million shares. We have moved from being a tin pot west Australian miner in conflict with its host country wanting to raise $500 million to build a mine and plant with (no chance) to a 49% shareholder in a tier 1 European project that appears on target for 100 million free euros, cheap loans and the probability of dilution at a fraction of what could have been expected as we tried to fund the project without the help of CEZ..... add to this the opportunity now to scale to many multiples of the PFS and I would suggest that KC has played a blinder. Please note that doubling the base production from 25 ktpa to 50 ktpa should double the NPV to US$2bn. Running two shifts so as to quadruple the pfs should lead to an NPV of US$4bn. To build that project at 2x the PFS say US$800m compared to US$500m for base 25ktpa...... and because of the quality of grant and debt monies, and the high debt to equity ratio when funding the build there may be as few as 200m shares to benefit from our 49% portion.......
2/ I agree that there may be an offer for the whole of the project coming from CEZ. I would like to see us, with urgency, drill the remaining blocks on our leases so as to increase our resource and demonstrate an increased NPV.
3/ I would also like to see publicised how much CEZ want as an offtake..... they get first dibs...... I think that would help us in our negotiations and put the wind up many potential offtakers because it will demonstrate that they have to move quickly or it will all be sold....... SORRY GUYS, ALL SOLD OUT, NOTHING TO SEE HERE, COME BACK IN A DECADE!!!!

Around 200,000 tpa
https://twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1371442705235128323?s=20

wrong board, sorry

Around 200,000 tons pa
https://twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1371442705235128323?s=20

Fingers crossed he is right.........

Stick with some of the guys research on this board Arnaud and you will not go too far wrong, many have known this project for over 5 years and have deep knowledge, one or two have even visited the site, that is their level of commitment....... as for the 'Froggy' comment; my white burgundy is delicious this evening and this 'rosbif' can't thank you enough!

MKDV, you question whether CEZ might use their 51% to get a disproportionately good off take from Geomet. In the 'reserve matters' that form part of the shareholders agreement between EMH and CEZ it states that decisions involving more than 5m Euros has to have the unanimous approval of the whole board. To put that in perspective CEZ could have around 425 tons @US$14,000 ...... in theory it can't happen.

Just a thought. If the VW presentation includes information that would move our share price might we ask for a share trading halt in London? If so, you have half an hour to fill your boots in London.... The guys in Aus will have all day Monday......

Arnaud. Rodney Hooper had said two different things in two different interviews. Firstly he said we could scale the base case production from 25 to 50 ktpa hydroxide (one shift). In a separate interview he has said that we may be able to add a second shift. The two comments are separate and the result is the potential to do 100 ktpa. Don’t get me wrong, I doubt that we will do this in one go, it will be a phased production ramp but the EU have committed to be 80% self sufficient in battery minerals and they really do not have many (any?) other projects that can scale like we can. We are an easy win, large resource, cheap production, central to demand in a well infastructured old mining region.
And a minor correction if I may (unless I misread your post) Lithium volume wise 25 tons of hydroxide will make 22 tons carbonate and vice versa.

Arnaud. Rodney Hooper had said two different things in two different interviews. Firstly he said we could scale the base case production from 25 to 50 ktpa hydroxide (one shift). In a separate interview he has said that we may be able to add a second shift. The two comments are separate and the result is the potential to do 100 ktpa. Don’t get me wrong, I doubtvghatvth

........ and that is the base case scenario, so do you double it for the second shift (mentioned again by Rodney Hooper on the new Crux interview)? In the previous interview Hooper talked about scaling the PFS volume as a base case (one shift) ...... is KC planning to scale to 100,000 tons?

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/03/what-happens-if-tesla-does-create-robotaxis-in-the-next-year-or-two/
A vision of the future?

The majority of disruptions come from outside an industry, a totally new player and this is what Tesla are. The automotives carry huge legacy; vast plants and machinery, a workforce skilled
in old practices, outdated supply chains and buying methodologies, senior management with skill sets no longer necessarily relevant. Tesla is starting with a blank sheet of paper when it builds its new ‘terafactories’ and it is being done on a scale never seen before. Hydroxide in at one end, cars out of the other. They are forecasting big drops in price over the next decade, which is normal when a disruptive technology takes over.
Some people are speculating that in 10 years time there will only be half a dozen companies building the chassis (wheels, electric motors, battery) with what we now know as automotives building the ‘coach’ and supplying their IT..... in a rapidly changing world Tesla is a long way ahead.

I had a long chat with Fingers the other morning after he had posted that list...... i think he did very well coming up with all those names but we realised that we had forgotten TerraE and Johnson Mathey (rumoured to be looking for 40ktpa) and a couple of others like Varta and Verkor. Interesting times..... politically, if the EU is fearful of Far East dominance in the electric revolution then it would be exclusively backing European projects (auto, battery, chemical, engineering, banking) in order to create a good future European supply chain and associated industry..... but it has offered to give Tesla 1 billion Euros.... and can it live without the Chinese, Korean and Japanese cash?
Again, very interesting to see PLL (well done!)....... 3rd Sept 2020 $6.19 ...... 6 months later $82.71 .... we were 20.75p on the 3rd sept....... will we be £2.60 with an offtake?

As I said in an earlier post, CEZ will want first dibs. They are planning to build two gigafactories and will need chemicals. It seems that Tesla are planning to produce their own batteries at their Berlin plant but they also buy cells from CATL, L&G and Panasonic. VW buy cell from CATL and Panasonic. The Koreans are big investors in the Czech Republic and we know that KC has visited Korea with CEZ (thought to have been initiated at Govt level) and is thought to have met Posco and Samsung (L&G perhaps as well).... the Koreans would be good for Czech as they would invest in the whole supply chain in country as opposed to producing batteries for export but the EU might favour European companies if EU grant money forthcoming. Politically the Germans are at the heart of the EU so they may ‘encourage’ us to provide offtakes to battery makers who make for VW, Daimler Benz, BMW (https://thedriven.io/2020/07/02/germany-ramps-up-electric-vehicle-battery-production-with-big-state-subsidies/)
Then there may be Eu encouragement for European Battery producers like NorthVolt, A123, Verkor, Varta, InoBat H3DA.....
It will be interesting to see how it pans out..... the balance between a country’s interests and an industry’s interests. The balance between politics and finance.
If I was a betting man I would say;
CEZ, NorthVolt, InoBat, Panasonic, Tesla

Look into this Crux interview with Infinity from yesterday....
https://youtu.be/bzGAnXwwV2c
There is a strange balance that needs to be struck between the ESG of the globe or the country as opposed to be ESG of the village or community

Correction to my earlier post
There HAS to be unanimity on selling an asset worth more than $5m, stock included.

Agreed, this will rocket on news.
In the ‘reserve matters’ of the shareholders agreement between EMH and CEZ with regard to ‘disposing of an asset’ it states that there hasn’t to be unanimity amongst shareholders for any sale in excess of €5m pa. So, at US$14kpt they can buy 360 tons before we can object.
Don’t get me wrong, I believe CEZ will be a corner stone offtaker. They have pledged to build two gigafactories and will need substantial quantities of lithium compounds ...... they own 51% of us, where else will they get it from? I can’t see KC letting any one customer have more than 40% of our production. The biggest issue that I think we currently face is pricing..... what will be the mechanism that sets the price? We need a minimum price guarantee to make this investable and fundable but I guess we will be prepared to share in the upside. There will be no fixed price long term contracts (unless it is $18k+ with a break/renegotiation clause if global price goes to 133% of $18k)...... what is interesting is that we can therefore assume that 40% of our production is already sold.... with VUL and Infinity both going to have difficulty getting the local population to approve their projects where else in Europe/EU is there to go?

Major, I think you need to do some homework. LCE stands for Lithium Carbonate Equivalent, it is a concept, it is not physical. You may mean ore.
Visit p8 of this company announcement to see chart of conversion factors
https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/emh/acf5640a-a84.pdf
The PLL deal is 6% concentrate, not hydroxide, which typically contains 6% Li2O. From each unit of Li2O you can make 0.356 of a unit of hydroxide. So effectively PLL have sold one third of their annual ore extraction in a form of slightly processed concentrate which will make a hundred dollars a ton on as opposed to finished Battery grade Hydroxide which could make $10,000 a ton. PLL took the deal because 1/ It came with some much needed finance 2/ they knew it would make their sp fly which makes cash raising less dilutive and 3/ the deal would generate lots of publicity.
The process planned for Cinovec will take out production through a Lithium carbonate phase into hydroxide. We will be able to produce either. The process is complex and obviously if the customer wants Carbonate we just omit the last process. There is not a huge saving. Our customers will want hydroxide because it is used in more powerful batteries, it is the way forward..... cheaper, smaller but with same power or same price, same size with more power. Your numbers suggesting huge savings on plant don’t stack up.

Not sure that I agree with you Major. From my understanding Tesla are buying 8000 tpa of 6% concentrate from PLL. The price for this is around US$500 pt max (has varied between 350 & 750 over the last 3 years).
We are aiming to get US$14,000 pt for our battery grade hydroxide...... I would rather add value and sell finished product for higher revenue. Musk has described his hydroxide processing plant in Austin Texas as a ‘pilot plant’ even though it is one of the biggest in the world (see Musks evolving concept of the TeraFactory); there is little doubt that Tesla will swim upstream in order to secure supply and reduce cost, possibly others will follow, but I do not want to see us compromise our business plan of producing 25ktpa (and scaling this) battery grade Lithium hydroxide..... there are, after all, 32+ potential offtakers of 5-10ktpa+ within 500km of Cinovec.