Member Info for hunkymonkey

Think the BoD have been good at informing us what is going on. None of the 3 rns's were a surprise to anyone.

Unless the DHL expands out to other sites, I'm not expecting any immediate contract rns's

We are due a trading update though, which will give us a roadmap for the coming year and hopefully some more little snippets of what is to come this year in terms of new business.

But for me the most important thing we can be updated on is, the rollout of Latin America and open box. With the caveats in there (no minimum orders), if it can be confirmed that exclusivity is looking like it's going to be achieved, then it removes any shadow of doubt with the deals and will allow the sp to rerate to more sensible levels. Not sure if it's going to be too soon for that. I guess it depends on when the update is released

Solidifying existing contracts rather and removing any doubts is more important to me right now.

Important to note, when I spoke to the BoD on the 21/12/21, when the trial was confirmed that it was completed. They also said, the Singapore trial was a blueprint to roll out to other sites. Given that there are 1000s of sites globally, it helps put the deal into perspective

Also note a celebration of excellent from DHL, great accolade to have when vying for other contracts

Not going to lie, I'm a little bit underwhelmed with that rns, that said this section is the important part

"The order reflects the progress being made with key customers globally, in line with our growth strategy for 2022, and we look forward to updating the market about further orders in due course"

Another validation of the tech and more orders to come.

I can see why the SP dropped, especially for those people invested for this news. But plenty of irons in the fire and still going to be a record breaking and a net profit positive year

Really not surprised as they're are two near term news flow that I'm expecting, that could rerate us

1) DHL contract - if it's blockbuster numbers

2) trading update - if this confirms that orders have stated rolling out to satisfy exclusivity to Latin America and open box, then it removes any jitters about these contracts and the "minimum order" caveat

3) all the recent rns talk about deal(s), all my talk with the BoD indicate more than one. So this is lesser known, but maybe even a unknown contract materialises. Granted not as assured as 1 & 2, but looking at freight and insurance costs, lots need to reduce cost and that's exactly what we do. Incidentally, not much talk about how our products are approved for air travel too, we're already approved with Swiss air, so yet another avenue

Genuinely surprised to see people selling, someone came on saying he'd sold on the day of open box rns. So unless you desperately need to sell I don't understand why you would, especially when you can conceivably see our net profit being nearly as much/if not equivalent to our current mcap.

The problem with most aim stocks before anything of any note is this. How to do value (largely) a loss making company, with "potential"

You can look at p/e ratios etc, this gives a good indication of value for established stocks, but with potential is virtually impossible.

The "potential" of lft tales took the mcap up to £300mln+, the rest from there we all know

So usually, the SP is usually made up of pi emotion either way.

So to answer your question, you need to answer it yourself. If your believe the therapeutic will take, you get a more realistic and higher mcap.

But you need to be prepared to
A) ride the pi emotion sentiment and stick to why your holding
B) of it doesn't go your way, be prepared to lose your final 20% through a combination of so drop and dilution.

Good luck and I hope your fortunes change

Not invested yet, but seem to have a decent cash pot, revenues already coming in and growing, decent connections and just waiting for further investigations

Having been hit hard by pharma's in the past, I also like the risk Vs reward. No huge bumps for failed trials. Win lose or draw they pyc are paid

For balance, I don't think pyc will get huge rises like what you can get in p1-2-3 trials, but can steadily grow a decent business generating cash and increasing the mcap at a steady rate.

Not as sexy or gratifying, but profit is the name of the game and fits my investment strategy

Outstanding write up, PR in full flow! Thanks for sharing

Rns 18/01/2018
Rns 11/01/2019
Rns 3/02/2020
Rns 10/02/2021

Usually there's a business update from the company around the end of January, so looking forward to do further commentary on what we've signed. Ideally we can get DHL through the door first, but lets take a step back and appreciate what we've signed thus far

The one thing is though, it certainly won't be in a straight line, and will obviously take time. But there's a roadmap to success, not based on hype or ramps, but on numbers.

Not a single mention of crop x either! Wonderful! It never was going to be company defining for us, so when people used to bang on about it, it really got my back up.

We're doing what we do best now and firmly on the right track (pardon the pun) lol

Good luck all

Mr. R - I don't think that you have to dissect the figures too much to get to an mcap of multiple of the current

Average revs $5mln (on any year)
Open box $7mln inc SaaS
Latin port $8mln inc SaaS
DHL $7mln NC SaaS (for arguments sake)

$27mln this year producing about $12mln net profit

Not including any extra deals

You can start to look at p/e ratios at that point which is look more reasonable for aim. Obviously that will take time.

For balance, the only risk to that is if, they don't order their minimum values for exclusivity? Which having conversed with the BoD - I am as confident as them that they will.

After this year, all those revenue figures will increase again as, the SaaS roll over to next year and increase again as the orders ramp up? Again that's not including any further contract wins

I don't say £100mln mcap as a ramp, but as a realistic proposition based on the figures as I see them. If you see that as unrealistic, please bring me back down to earth with a bump! I think I might need it!

£100mln mcap gives an sp of approx £1.80, with what's signed and assuming DHL is somewhere near that (let alone exceeding) on top of our current revenues, that's my starting point

One thing people haven't mentioned yet, there's still 11 months to sign more deals THIS year!

You say that, but the volume is still quite low. I don't like talking sp, I think the rns's do that for a rational investor.

It was telling that the mm's would take 125k shares in one hit this morning £32,500 without nt. Then a few buys push it another 10%. Mm's definitely geared up to accumulate, that's why it's a systematic rise, 10% per day to see who they can tempt.

Anyone selling, congrats enjoy your profit. I'm over 2 bags up now and not even tempted to sell a thing personally

Could not agree more. Allow these contracts mature over the next 12-18 months, get established and ramp up. Follow up with 3 equivalent contracts over that time frame, and trac will be a serious player with a serious mcap

There have been a few things that I thought needed answering and rather posing on here and get accused of selling or whatever - I thought I'd go straight to the BoD. Rather than the tit for tat on these bb's produce, if you're not always ultra positive

1) given the historic revenues of the company $3-$4mln excluding SaaS - do they have the manufacturing capabilities to fulfill these larger orders, along with any future orders, especially considering we know negotiations are still ongoing with DHL, as well as maintaining existing clients?

In short, they have spent that past year ramping up manufacturing capabilities, so when these big orders they are ready to go

2) open box are only 3 months old, is there any further information that you can give on the company, or indeed who the end users are?

"OpenBox is indeed is a new established entity, but its meaningless because we trust the people stand behind it" - the element of the end user(s) were dodged - which is fair enough. But, as we always say, the BoD are as straight as an arrow, so if it's good enough for them, it's good enough for me. I personally don't believe that they would have written the business if they didn't think it would materialise. This wasn't necessarily a concern of mine, but I have seen a few posts here and there.

Finally....... I only asked those two questions, however there was a little more volunteered which is

"Regarding DHL you will need to stay tuned to the updates that shall be released soon"

I never actually asked about the above, I only referenced manufacturing.

The email was finished with "just follow the upcoming updates"

So I think that I can genuinely say, we're very close in finalising the DHL contract. Fwiw, I think the DHL contract will be the biggest one to date.

good luck all, I have never been as excited about a share as this one right now.

I think this could be important as it is where DHL actually did it's pilot of the smart lock

https://www.google.com/amp/s/lot.dhl.com/small-but-connected-how-singapore-stands-its-ground-as-a-global-logistics-hub/amp/

Try putting the link in Google, send to be a bad link in the address bar

https://lot-dhl-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/lot.dhl.com/small-but-connected-how-singapore-stands-its-ground-as-a-global-logistics-hub/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16423566738316&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Flot.dhl.com%2Fsmall-but-connected-how-singapore-stands-its-ground-as-a-global-logistics-hub%2F

Nothing that I think specifically relates to us, but with Singapore's expansion, coincided with DHL's presence and our trial being conducted in Singapore

Definitely seems to be the right place at the right time

https://lot-dhl-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/lot.dhl.com/small-but-connected-how-singapore-stands-its-ground-as-a-global-logistics-hub/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16423566738316&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Flot.dhl.com%2Fsmall-but-connected-how-singapore-stands-its-ground-as-a-global-logistics-hub%2F

https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/01/14/economy/la-freight-railroad-theft/index.html?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16422603136374&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2022%2F01%2F14%2Feconomy%2Fla-freight-railroad-theft%2Findex.html

Obviously it's unfortunate, but we have the solution and are actively growing in this part of the world