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Also, If you consider there wasn’t the agreement in place that gives Anglo first refusal, there will be no doubts that news flow would be more forthcoming, to support PR in marketing efforts.
It is a given that Anglo would want to be party to all the data on which to base their decision, before the market is made aware. There is already a ridiculous amount of supporting evidence out there to satisfy potential new investors. The BOD’s responsibility is not toward them now, but with the investors that took those earlier risks.
Keep the faith, agree totally Steve, there is nowt to suggest a less than positive outcome.

Fair one lucky!
My only however is, would an impending placement be considered bad news? Certainly not where the project is concerned if was required to fulfil its objective. It would also show positive indication that there is more resource to be added to the Ascot model as well as maybe RC southern extension that will all return more value. The market perception of a placing on the other hand…….you can hear the blah blahs already with their rinse and repeat.

Hi there lucky
>> history has taught me that with xtract, quiet times mean they are digging up some good news to hide the bad.<<

Not necessarily, you must remember the lean spell of news that we had back at tail end of phase 1 before the original conceptual pit was released.
With CB then explaining after,

>> we have to manage expectations, its a fine balance keeping shareholders fully abreast of what’s happening. The optimism has to be tempered because peoples hard earned money is at stake, we can’t talk about what we are doing just for the sake of it. <<

Circumstances are clearly different, particularly if there has been an approach which incidentally, you would not necessarily consider that to be overly speculative under the circumstance with the timeframe and CB confirming he was in oz.

We’ve been through this quiet spell all before, So for others that are feeling a bit jittery, don’t panic.

CB in oz- was a suggestion he may have been down under for the gee gees at royal Randwick.
Seems doubtful he would confirm he was in oz if he were not there on business.
(Not to say he didn’t attend)
What interests do other CB companies hold in oz?

Toenails……I notice you’re quick to criticise others for their posting style. And yet here you are with your latest middle of the road offering. Please try to play nice this is a public forum.

Ella - agree, it is pointless trying to anticipate when a sale will happen. It would be foolish to accept everything a CEO states, but there has been just too many comments from cb to ignore re Ascot drilling. From, “it’s not a collender,” numerous death of a thousand lashes and stating that Ascot will have some joined up strike, width and depth to model but left open ended in all directions. Also, that a major will just want to see that there is some confidence that it is viable and too much by a junior defeats the whole evolutionary cycle of a discovery. Also other comments in interview and in person suggesting a sale by end of ‘22. Too many that all together, I feel give a good intent of the projects directive to get this wrapped up this year.

Ascot is no doubt key to timing, and with no further drill pad applications submitted ( as far as I know) any of the recent but still unreported approvals for pads may well be the last, pointing toward that loosely inferred resource at Ascot. Who knows, but will be interesting, as to how much the potentially better minerals that have been suggested further south in Ascot will be proven if shown to be the case.

Iceberg- I see your point of a fundraise if income from Manica isn’t forthcoming soon enough.
I find the overall reaction of some investors amusing at times when there is a genuine growth opportunity to realise. So do agree, it will certainly not be the end of the world, “if” required as CB never ruled one out with any certainty. You copped out on any suggestions regarding Colin’s insistence of April / May target on approaching Anglo, although a JORC update end of may/June suggests you believe a closed off RC north and south with completion of pit model and financial study be all done before then. I would tend to agree, as it has been shown that exploration is far in advance of up to date reporting.

I get an impression that the market may ‘not’ get a response, as to a yes or no from them or even wether an approach is even made. Maybe, or even likely not get news regarding sale until any potential deal is announced late summer.

Ella ;-)

That’s why I compose off site, then copy, paste and post. Had same issues.

Inflation and inherent geo political situation will no doubt have effect on npv. Let’s hope it ultimately, does not effect a potential sale through majors holding off until there is more certainty. I certainly don’t see that happening, as the likelihood of picking up these assets in safe jurisdictions potentially cheaper now, makes more ‘long term’ economic sense.
Is there an argument to suggest these ‘safer’ assets could potentially command more in these geo politically uncertain times?

You could easily make the mistake of using a sliding scale to estimate resource by reducing the economic cut off variably.
But, as that cut of is reduced, there will naturally be increasingly more resource that will becomes economic in the ground.
ie, there is more in ground at 0.1 than at .03 and more 0.3 than at 0.4 etc

Sorry if that is obvious to others but was a bit of a light bulb moment for me ;-)

Metallurgy results due back anytime now, wether it’s reported is another matter. Worth bearing in mind initial met test work was carried out back in 2011 by Lachlan star when they owned Bushranger. Reported in their scoping study albeit quite vague.

>>The initial metallurgical test work on the mineralisation indicate that the saleable concentrates could be produced at reasonable recoveries<<

Overall the study clearly indicated that the project back in 2011 when was much smaller, was potentially economic. Since then we have had a much more comprehensive conceptual pit study on our initial 71mt resource for more up to date reference.

However, the original scoping study is worth a quick read still, for any not seen it

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110318/pdf/41xjfrl6cclqfx.pdf

And oh boy, do we have economy of scale now!

Good point you make Sq52, with the exception of a hole or two to close off the north of the main inferred resource, which was stated will not have any IP to guide drilling, then it could well be that the current planned drill pads (approved but unannounced as yet) will be the last, if no further pads have be submitted for approval.

When it was reported in RNS 2nd March that RC extension pads were sub optimally sited and new pads were waiting approval. These new pads were submitted on 5th feb. There is an apparent month lag at least it would seem in where exploration sits and what is reported.
This is getting very interesting

Apology to Andmillsy ;-)

The last round of holes to test southern extension to RC ( ) were sited using historical IP. It was later confirmed with interim results from the latest lines, that the drill pad positions were sub optimal. Also, the recent pads we are awaiting approvals for, were also sited using historical data.
In an ideal world, pads would be sited for optimum use using the very latest quality survey at the beginning of an exploration phase.

Question being, is the positioning of a pad, although important, not that critical, example being, the drill hole positions map show all are pinpointed on the fringes of woodland, along rides or in clearings, or, was the more inferior historical IP used to progress exploration quicker to help fulfil CB’s aggressive timescale? At some detriment to potentially better drill results through more optimal positioning of pads if they had run the latest lines sooner and before pad applications were submitted?

The latest round is needed to produce the final model though, as well as aid the more accurate targeting of holes, angle and orientation when the drone mounted EM data is overlayed. (Would assume they are still using it) So maybe it was also necessary to do the new lines of IP as the historical wasn’t adequate enough to work alongside the drone’s EM for targeting.

All very interesting

Have highlighted paragraph below, taken from met test work RNS 26 Jan. Helps to answer you other question Cygnus (Thu 17.27) It also gives a good indication of the level of work planned to fully understand the geology and realise Ascot’s potential.

>>>In addition to the test work at Racecourse, the Company will also submit one sample from drill hole BRDD-21-035 at the Ascot prospect. Ascot has so far returned results with significantly higher gold tenor than Racecourse which could indicate that it represents a distinct mineralised body within the Bushranger system and the Company intends to better understand any potential difference between the two deposits. Mineral textures observed within the Ascot drill core could indicate that Ascot sits closer to a feeder zone for the system and the company intends to model and test this theory with further test work and drilling.

Seems currently though, they have been concentrating efforts into increasing the resource at Ascot, maybe to add tonnage to get over 2mt threshold to hit April/May target, as have been unable to increase resource by extending RC south due to the outstanding permits.

Touch of insomnia, not 2am DR ;-)

>>My point was simply that I think that Ascot may be worth more per ton <<

I would agree in principle, as of yet we don’t know the intensity it will be drilled yet. Colin has stated they will plan targeted drilling, we know the IP has extended down to the southern most region of the anomoly so would have a guess, a fair proportion will be targeted and modelled. He has stated the intent is to drill to establish an inferred resource that will be open ended in all directions. So it leaves a lot open to interpretation as to how much will be added to MRE. But, what will be modelled will no doubt be discounted a degree more than racecourse, as once that is modelled a lot of that will command a higher premium as will have converted to indicated through the infill work through phase 2.

I think Ascot will make a reasonable contribution at the very least, a ‘targeted’ drilling campaign is being planned, so there must be confidence Ascot is loaded. Whatever ratios, of copper, gold, molybdenum etc there are, the copper EQ is likely, going to come back higher than racecourse which is predominantly copper centric.

Cygnus, a polite reminder that iceberg has an entry in his blog on Ascot.

Very well worth a read for anyone not familiar with his blog on all aspects of Bushranger as well as a piece on Eureka.

http://icebergshares.blogspot.com/

Thank you for the figures both Andrews, appreciate that you have used more realistic earnings and shown deductions included to come to the magical $1m per month.
Agree on the P/E hence the query. As for sentiment, you get the feeling now it’s on the cusp of a shift, wouldn’t be surprised now if, little or fairly insignificant news starts a FOMO effect. With huge potential upside that’s difficult to factor, I could foresee a rise of any significance now is less likely to ‘not’ be met with much of a retraction as more shares are churned and picked up by investors.
Next question is do we expect to be informed when Anglo are approached?
‘If’, they state their intent to buy back in, could we expect a total news black out from there on in if negotiations start? Or, would xtract complete work to close off, southern extension and complete pit model and financial studies first before negotiations start? Ascot too….

https://audioboom.com/posts/8048001-midweek-takeaway-colin-bird-special

Andrew >> The manica update shows how close we are to transformational income coming very, very soon......yet the sp hasnt moved since the update and we are still down ! <<

With Kevin Hornsby using a EBITA of 10m and conservative P/E of 6 once fairbride is operational, it should rerate to approx 60m market cap. This as far as I understand would be bottom line. Significant enough to totally underpin 7p making bushranger risk free from current levels. Would you agree with his figures Andrew? What margin of flexibility could we expect to see?
Xtract from about 36min valueing @49mins

After listening again it seems that the ambition to get to the ‘minimum’ 2mt by April / may, could possibly include the tonnage already modelled from Ascot to get into negotiations with Anglo. (Minimum requirement)
Thoughts on that anyone?

Cyberiachas >> I'm wondering if they imported British builders for the job <<

Not sure they did, they fellas in the Manica install team pic look far too cool to be, in their poses. They could pass as a boy band ‘deca-duo’ ( best guess at a collective of 12)
If all my sub contractors lined up and struck the same pose they would look like a sunday league footy team on a jolly to Margate.