The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
What……Even you Andrew?
Hi btts my initial entry was a small trenche at 6p, in heavier around 5p, one at 7p then 2x £20k buys at 4p. Those early days I made no secret that I was drawn in by those early over optimistic targets with the herd.
It is through my greater understanding through wider research and constant evaluating since, that my average is where it is now from continually accumulating particularly since Fairbride start up.
Okey dokey let’s nip this in the bud now, firstly in response to an earlier comment, I dont make forecasts, I give my opinion to subject of discussion or a news release based on facts, correlating information that has been put out previously to support any commenting and from my own extensive research into the resource sector particularly copper mining.
I do admit my understanding of financial aspects and corporate governance is not great! But I am down by 60-70% like many others and have the same instinctive worries regarding the share price.
My understanding of what the company are trying to achieve in diversifying its assets in line with the growth strategy and the opportunities it could and hopefully will bring, funded in part from revenue and or through JV’s which mitigates some of the risk, gives me confidence the company with its current assets is in a good place. It has allowed me to now have a longer term outlook.
I don’t need to be spoon fed news, when the company have news and want to release it they will. Moaning about it is not going to change anything, the share price will do what it does until buyers return looking for value where there is obvious undervalue, when the resource sector turns. In the meantime, I am happy to continue to bring my average down and point out that not once have I resorted to de ramping to suit my current strategy to do that.
Howzaps a paid poster, end of!
🤑 I wish.
Howezap has been describing xtr as a buying opportunity all the way down the hill.
If you felt the share price was good value and bought in at +/-6p after doing your own ‘due diligence’ how much extra value has been added to the share price at 1p?
Anybody listening to him or Bird have been seriously financially damaged .
See above.
Anyway….. Data coming out of US today means interest rates looks like they have peaked and will now keep falling over next 18 months.
That's good for Gold and Copper.
So income from manica should continue to increase and viability of BR will keep improving as POC keeps increasing throughout 2024/ 25.
SP recovery starting by end of 2023 and through out 2024
Popped in to see you earlier Andrew but you was not there, sorry, I ate all your chocolate hob nobs.
To recap- The pit optimisation and financial study concludes that due to the large size and relatively low grade of the Racecourse deposit, conditions are expected to be excellent for efficient and productive mining.
It just comes down to reworking the model to find a desirable enough economic performance that supports the resource model in showing a potential acquirer the already reasonable geological justification there is to warrant taking it to Pre feasibility and so.
Got to remember that a PEA or scoping study is the level at which the updated conceptual study when finally updated, will be after optimisation and is just to support an initial CapEx payback phase and will only need to determine if the resource has the ‘potential’ to be economically viable. Whereas at PFS it would determine whether a probable mineral reserve ‘is’ economically viable and so onto a full feasibility study which then determines whether the reserve can ‘actually’ be mined economically.
Bought into Kakuyu JV, with partners Oval mining and Kakuyu limited. Waiting for next steps from there.
Managed to get an exploration foothold in a highly sought after region in NW Zambia, likely through the association with Oval mining who are the license holder of the largest of the two new licenses. So good positioning. Also waiting on.
Fairbride now primary asset as a sustainable mining operation with significant revenues that will be used to fund exploration to advance all its projects accordingly to increase asset values I might too, at a time when exploration activity across the sector is almost zero amongst its peers.
I have the availability to the same information as anyone else and will shortly start accumulating shares again.
And I thought it would be you Andrew that would understand the buying opportunity that has come about against the current stronger fundamentals.
After all, pre bushranger you had significantly averaged down from well over double figures (can’t recall actual) against a far weaker NAV.
What is so different now, at a time when the two main assets particularly, have seen big developments over last couple years?
Note the sarcasm Andy, but I personally think OSV has every right to state that the company are creating value. Wether that be through increasing the fundamentals through the development of its two main assets in particular over last couple of years, or creating value in the share price that will give shareholders with those higher averages the opportunity to significantly average down in line with any sensible investment strategy.
CB did say they are now concentrating on developing the assets and ignoring the share price.
Creating value doesn’t necessarily mean having to continually influence the market to create more demand for shares.
Would never have took you for a twitcher NtM! Colin must have reported the post, you made him anxious that he might get accosted in the street, said it would be NotSoNiceToMichu under those circumstances.
Short term it’s certainly looking like a copper bull run will not come round just yet. Analysts expectations for copper are estimated for it to trade at 3.61 by the end of this quarter and down to 3.41 in 12 months time.
The flip side is of course is that gold will rise, increasing Manica revenue from profit share that should also see costs come down further as the operation fully matures.
Expectations for gold looking forward, are estimate by analysts for it to be traded at 2083 in 12 months time. By then it would have seen it sustained above the 2000 barrier and should continue to rise thereafter.
No shareholder wants to hear that the share price could be suppressed for some time, the big positive that cannot be ignored is that xtr are in an enviable position to be able to advance ‘all’ of its projects forward during that time.
At present that’s what shares are worth, but there is zero confidence in the resource sector for outside investors to want to jump in at the moment, leaving currently invested to trade amongst themselves for any rich pickings. I think what flipper is subtly trying to suggest is you jump out of the frying pan straight back into the fire 🔥
It’s not a dud jez it’s ‘currently’ not enough to be mined yet in what is an initial payback mining phase.
Those economics are likely based on less than half the resource at RC alone.
Yes at mercy of copper price has always been since acquisition.
If you can’t keep up with the grown up conversation, you should maybe sit at the kiddie table Jez 😉 Or perhaps I should….all on my own. 🤔
There are no shocks in this one supporting study, I did suspect that Tomras ore sorting of the low grade wasn’t going to carry the economics.
As stated it’s a starting point to work from, to improve on some of the more technical work and plant and mining optimisation to bring down the operating costs that have been shown in the ‘example’ of case 17, which has shown to have a significant increase in cash flow.
Pre concentration will be looked into further, as this will have the most profound effect if the plant ‘can’ be designed around a 10mtpa mill. From what is known from the close association of the copper mineralisation with the mineral pyrrhotite, which is both conductive and magnetic, there are ‘several’ options for pre-concentration. This was already stated in RNS.
There are different pre-concentration technologies ‘other than’ Tomras XRT. Such as Magnetic resonance Bulk sorting, which can be used to sort chalcopyrite from waste minerals. Also, similarly to Tomras particle sensors, is Electromagnetic (EM) sensors for separating minerals based on differences in their electrical conductivity or magnetic susceptibility. Either of which may be highly effective, but the EM is the one we thought they were going to go with originally due to the magnetic properties of BR’s waste. A company called NextOre run this tech.
We have known about the anticipated copper price needed since the ‘21 preliminary study, we already knew there will be further optimisation work as Colin told us that at AGM. We have also known the “potential”” is there down the line, as was stated in May RNS that further drilling is at planning stage to test the remaining shallow to moderate depth copper-gold mineralisation targets located proximal to the Racecourse Mineral Resource. Extension to RC north, ascot and the untested IP anomaly next to Ascot ‘If required.’
There is nothing we haven’t been told already and is certainly not a negative study.
Hi mrgez I don’t want to be seen as completely missing your point. I really do get it, CB managed to drag a lot of investors in with his over enthusiasm and unrealistic timescales. I can’t comment on pre BR investors, but I doubt there are many of the early BR investors that would have bothered if they had known how long it would realistically take. Let alone investing in the sector in general leading into a global recession.
Hate the term “it is what it is” or “hindsight is a wonderful thing,” but xtr are ‘still’ in a good place in comparison to many of its peers.
The 2mt, regardless of what CB had said is not relevant without a study to support a viable mining concept, leaving it as a moot point. No mining company is going to buy bulk tonnage low graded porphyry deposit, which have unpredictable mineralisation trends, without one. How could any value be determined for it without an NPV model wether that’s for 1.3mt or 2mt.
CB has repeated a couple of times at least I can recall that the 2mt and DtM are concurrent and are one of the same.
It became clear then, that AA would not have been approached anyway without a viability study to at least support the DtM
Hypothetically it could have triggered the AA option but they are under no obligation to buy back into it and highly unlikely they would anyway regardless of total CuEq , still leaving us where we are now.
Not for one minute do I honestly believe that this would have been sold last year.
With the so called ‘difficulty’ that he stated recently that they are facing in proving the decision to mine. The company will be now looking to negotiate ‘out’ of the agreement.
This would have been very likely always known to be the case since inheriting the buy back agreement on acquisition of BR.
So why did the company not approach AA straight after the updated Resource for RC and MRE for Ascot were released? As in theory, they could have just struck a sell on deal with AA when the 2mt option was not reached if he really wanted to tie a bow round it and sell it.
Far too much significance has been placed on the agreement and its terms. Although, as far as we know it’s legally binding, it has been used at the centre of BR marketing strategy. But in reality, with a budget assigned to explore and build on the resource toward upgrading the JORC along with a complementing economic study are generally set in stone and the same for any project even if 2mt was reached.
They were always going to make the project as desirable as possible within that budget plus maybe a contingency to act on any further recommendations they feel will add further value that the latest study will throw up.
We would highly likely ‘still’ be here and now if 2mt was JORC’d in this current economic climate.
Do agree Andrew, BR will be ok.
Here’s my take on one reason why the study could be taking so long. I’m sure they could or are looking into alternative ‘sensor based’ ore sorting tech to see if the higher grade will be amenable for pre concentration too, to warrant utilising a smaller grinding mill that will ultimately determine the size of any processing plant that will have a huge positive impact on the NPV model from reduced capital outlay and future Op costs. ‘Without’ that further ore sorting option for the higher grade early payback phase, a smaller mill will create a bottleneck in the flowsheet design and actually extend the payback period.
So I think, until an alternative in the short term can be found and is factored in, I personally don’t think they will release the updated study until then, if they want to show optimum economic performance. If they do release it with the TOMRA results in its current state ….(CB had implied they would get something ready for the market) ... although it will have brought the abundant low grades into play, it might just spook the market further if the economics ‘overall’ are too far from being as desirable as could be if they believe there is different tech available at present.
I have no doubts there are sensor arrays out there suitable for BR’s higher grades, if not yet, then the technology will catch up as it is constantly leap frogging previous outcomes due to the rapidly developing technology.
An example is Caravel who have left out their impressive ore sorting results in their recent PFS that ‘were’ in their 2018 scoping study, to wait for the very latest technology advancements to then include it into their flowsheet design in their DFS.
BR is nowhere near advanced as that, but just needs to show a concept that works for another company to take it further. The TOMRA results may fit that bill and be sufficient to offload when the crunch comes in a year or two without spending too much more money on it.
Even if you ‘were’ to take a somewhat sceptical view that the rise in demand for copper will not come from the electrification of vehicles ‘in particular’ as CB has pointed to. That increased demand imbalance over supply will still come from those emerging economies around the world to provide electricity to the billion or so people that don’t have it, and the opportunities that further demands on copper will bring. Also with advancements in technologies to distribute it, in renewable energy and battery storage, these technical advancements will accelerate that coverage with more and more copper being needed at every aspect.
Dani >>Can someone explain why Colin stated in 6 Apr podcast of AISC 700$ AN ounce to XTR for Q1 yet in report it says 1185 an ounce - that's one helova difference
Tbf Colin never actually stated in the podcast that 700$ was AISC, in his own inevitable way, he may have simply been referring to just the production costs.???
Anyone know how the SPV for exploration is funded? From xtr’s net profit share direct or would it be paid back into SPV from company operating cash flow?
The exploratory drilling not grade control drilling which is part of the mining process.
BTTS = Any decent share price gain and I'd be off like a shot.
Seems there is one other investor type I had overlooked. The ones that use the Hokey Cokey strategy……. In and out. 😉
🥳 you are back in !
All the best I’m sure whatever decision you make will be the right one for you 👍