RE: Background to deal4 Feb 2024 17:59
2/3
The eventual announcement of the bid comes on 20 December 2023 - an extraordinarily long six months after the Confidentiality Agreement was signed. This is particularly unusual as Ketan Patel has had over two decades association with the business and must know it intimately. My guess is that they were finding it much more difficult than expected to finance the bid which is nearly all in debt ($150m) with no doubt the primary assets and cash flow being relied upon by the lending bank being that of Shanta itself. It is also remarkable that all they have is a short term, one year bridging loan which in the Scheme Document they say they will refinance. Of course, in the Scheme Document they bizarrely contend this is a much more stable way of financing Shanta.
At the date of the Confidentiality Agreement Zurrin’s revised contract was only out to 30 September 2023 and the takeover clearly could not have been completed in three months (but it could have been announced and been well underway and having the CEO in the departure lounge might be another good reason for Shanta to be bought out). It might also be that the Patels assumed they could have managed without Zurrin for a few months post 30 September 2023 (given I assume they must have someone else in mind as CEO post takeover). Of course, at that stage, it may also have been that Zurrin was not prepared to go beyond 30 September 2023 or that there was informal agreement he would extend.
Things then must have started to get much harder for the Patels. Interest rates continue to rise making debt more expensive, the gold price moves strongly upward and in particular the Shanta share price starts recovering. I think the major reason that the takeover premium is so pathetic is that the intention was for the bid to be announced months earlier when the share price was much lower. I think this likely also runs to some of the ridiculous reasons for the takeover given in the Scheme Document. They may have made more sense in, say, July 2023 and it would not be surprising if the Scheme Document was largely drafted around then and has become progressively outdated.
Zurrin then gets a new contract on 30 September 2023. Rather tellingly it is not termed another variation agreement but “Settlement Agreement”, implying both finality and a new agreement. Again I am rather surprised this was not disclosed to the market. It is definitely a related party transaction but depending on interpretation it may not pass the size test for disclosure. However, the spirit of the rules might suggest that disclosure would have been the preferred option. If properly and fully disclosed it may have tipped off a careful reader that a takeover was underway.