Member Info for HotblackDesiato

Crumbs, are you suggesting our media like to trot out scare-mongering headlines?

;-)

Following on from Thoth's 2nd point, " C19 is very rare in that humans infect wild animals. So will be circulating in the wild and mutating a while yet", here's an extract from the latest New Scientist article re the first source of Covid infection (I've edited it to fit here).

'A fresh analysis of the earliest covid-19 cases has bolstered the argument that the pandemic began at the Huanan market in Wuhan - the earliest known cases were indeed linked to the market. The first was a seafood vendor who became ill on 11 December 2019 (Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.abm4454). According to the WHO report, a third of 168 cases in December 2019 had links to the market. This is what one would expect if it was the source, says says Michael Worobey at the University of Arizona in his analysis. The original SARS-CoV-2 virus was highly infectious and could spread asymptomatically, so many cases would lack a direct link to the source.

It has been suggested that this apparent link to the market is due to bias, as authorities began looking for cases linked to it once they were told of a possible connection on 29 December 2019. Worobey says this idea crumbles when you look at the three hospitals where doctors first realised something was up. They identified 19 unexplained pneumonia cases, of which 10 were linked to the market, before authorities were alerted. What’s more, many early cases were linked to the western part of the market, which sold live animals such as raccoon dogs, a potential intermediate host for the virus to jump from bats to humans.

“Combined, this is compelling evidence that covid-19 has a live-animal-associated market origin, much like the first SARS virus,” says David Robertson at the University of Glasgow, UK. “Whether the initial transmissions were from animals to customers in the market, via vendors or both is hard to say.”

Also

"...other recent findings have weakened the case for a lab origin, which some researchers say was never strong. In particular, coronaviruses that are the closest match yet found to SARS-CoV-2 have been discovered in bats in Laos. These wild viruses have features in common with SARS-CoV-2 that some had claimed could only have arisen in a lab during so-called gain-of-function experiments, showing these features can and do evolve in the wild."

No doubt the 'escaped-from-a-lab/natural occurrence' debate will continue for years but hopefully SAR will come up with the goods to create a one-size-fits-all therapeutic and the world will hear about it.

Regards all.

A researcher blows the whistle on data integrity issues in Pfizer’s vaccine trial - https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2635

Big Pharma, don't cha love 'em?

Hi Mafuta, whilst I'm not out for any of the BoD's blood, I wonder if Parker only bought shares after a few of the heavily invested LTHs e-mailed SAR to say 'do something about this or else'.

Sadly I missed out on topping up as I'm determined not to let my other holding go for a 5-figure loss. If only I had just gritted my teeth to sell and add more here at 3.5p, well, you can figure out the rest. Hey ho. The way the sp was going, it could've very well gone sub 2.5p but who could've foreseen the sudden bounce....other than anyone who e-mailed Parker to suggested that he add a few shares.

Part 2

AY.4.2 doesn’t appear to cause more severe disease, either. In fact, one study in the UK suggests it is slightly less likely to cause symptoms. But more studies are needed to confirm this, say some virologists. “This may likely turn out to have been a ‘false positive’ finding,” tweeted Francois Balloux at University College London.

The UK may be the first to notice an increase in cases linked to AY.4.2 because its virus surveillance is more comprehensive than those of other countries, says Pea****. The variant is likely to be gaining ground in many other countries too, spawning yet more variants along the way, he says.

In fact, an offshoot called AY.4.2.1, with an extra spike mutation, appears to be spreading a bit faster than AY.4.2 in England, but it isn’t possible to be sure of this so early on. “I wouldn’t say anything on the horizon right now is very concerning,” says Kall. “The reason that AY.4.2 is being very closely watched is that it may not take very much for one of these sublineages to gain mutations that do make it worse.

There is also concern about another new variant, called B.1.640, which Pea**** helped identify in October. It was first detected in the Republic of the Congo. “This is the first [non-delta variant] we’ve seen growing in a country that has a background of delta,” says Pea****.

What’s striking about B.1.640 is that it isn’t closely related to any other variants and already has a lot of genetic diversity, says Pea****. This suggests it has beencirculatingundetected for quite some time.

Its properties haven’t yet been studied, but it has a lot of the same mutations as the C.1.2 variant first detected in South Africa, which is very good at dodging immunity, says Pea****. C.1.2 is still around but isn’t gaining ground versus delta.

B.1.640 has now been detected in several European countries and Canada, but this apparently rapid spread might be due to a superspreader event at a school in France rather than any inherent advantage over other variants, says Pea****. It is too early still to tell if it can compete against the delta lineages.

“Pre-delta, this might have been a beast. Post-delta, I don’t really know…” Balloux tweeted.

Probably have to wait for next issue to see what's being said re the latest variant that's in the news.

Stay safe!

Hi All - from latest issue of New Scientist on variants (Part 1)

An offshoot of the delta coronavirus variant, known as AY.4.2, appears to be more transmissible, but not more dangerous, says Michael Le Page

AFTER a period of relative calm in terms of the coronavirus’s evolution, further notable variants are now emerging. An offshoot of the delta variant, known as AY.4.2, appears to be slightly more infectious than the original delta, and could slowly replace it. Several other new variants are being monitored, including one that seems to have evolved undetected in Central Africa before spreading to Europe and beyond.

None of these emerging variants appear to be hugely more infectious or better at dodging immunity than delta, so aren’t expected to trigger major waves of cases around the world. But the bad news is that it may be only a matter of time before such a variant evolves.

“Something with delta-like transmissibility, but which escapes immunity better, is entirely possible, and in fact it may even be inevitable eventually,” says Tom Pea**** at Imperial College London.

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has been constantly mutating since jumping to people from other animals, but most mutants die out. Only a few new variants have a significant advantage over other competing ones. The alpha variant was around 50 per cent more transmissible than older variants, and caused a wave of new cases as it spread worldwide early this year. Then came delta, which was around 50 per cent more transmissible than alpha, and triggered yet another global surge in cases.

Delta has been outcompeting other variants in country after country, driving most of them to extinction. The dominance of delta temporarily slowed down the evolution of dangerous new variants by reducing the diversity of the virus – with less genetic diversity, the virus has less opportunity to evolve. But delta itself is now spawning new variants and diversifying.

One of the new variants is AY.4.2. It has been designated a “variant under investigation” by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), which is monitoring it, but hasn’t yet been named a “variant of interest” by the World Health Organization, and so hasn’t been given a name from the Greek alphabet.

AY.4.2 has a couple of extra mutations in the outer spike protein of the virus. The effect of these mutations isn’t clear, but in the UK it has been slowly gaining ground and accounted for 15 per cent of all cases at the beginning of November. It appears to be slightly more infectious than delta.

Fortunately, AY.4.2 appears to be no better at dodging immunity than the original delta. “The vaccines work against all the variants we have seen emerge so far,” says Meaghan Kall at UKHSA. “There is always the potential for that to change, though.”

RV84 - sorry, yes, I was actually thinking that as I typed - still, money in the bank!

Hi Blastoid, as far as I'm aware we get £550,000 once the first patient gets a dose.

Pah. 'Twas a fine haiku, with reference to nature (the buck) and a season, so all boxes ticked (I'm now childishly blowing a raspberry at you).

Since we've found your level, try this one for size -

There was a young man from Dundas
Whose legs were made out of brass
In very cold weather
His knees knocked together
And sparks flew right up his ars

I didn't see the large trades but could they be transfers between different MMs?

With apologies to any Japanese poets we might have out there.

Try to make fast buck?
Winter is no time for shorts
So burn baby, burn

Silver & Gekgo - after my first jab I felt pretty bad (whole body felt roasting during the night yet my feet were like ice and also had a bad headache) but fine after my second one. I drank loads of water after the second on the assumption the first left me very dehydrated. I expect to get my booster in the next month or so - the thought of Gekgo's side-effect doesn't seem like a good advert for the booster!

Regards.

Hi Dr. Zed - hope all is well. Here're a couple of extracts from the New Scientist article I was trying to recall -

"In June, COV-Boost recruited 2833 people aged 30 and over who were already double vaccinated with either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines. They all received a third dose of one of seven covid-19 vaccines – Pfizer/BioNTech, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Moderna, Novavax, Valneva, Janssen and Curevac – or a control, a vaccine against meningitis. Half of the recruits were over 70 and a “decent number” of those were over 80, says chief investigator Saul Faust. Half had received Pfizer/BioNTech for their first two doses and half Oxford/AstraZeneca.

Over the next four weeks, the volunteers kept a record of any side effects and on day 28 came in for a blood test to measure their antibody levels, T-cell responses and also a “killing assay” to see how potent their blood was at neutralising the virus.

According to Faust, some of the vaccines produced “several-fold” increases in antibody levels and also improved T-cell responses, suggesting that they significantly strengthen protection against the virus. The vaccines were well tolerated in the small number of people in the trial.

The full results from the trial are expected in October, but the JCVI evidently saw enough in the interim results to give the green light to a booster campaign. Its booster of choice is the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, to be given at least six months after a person’s second shot. A half dose of the Moderna vaccine – which like Pfizer/BioNTech is an mRNA vaccine – can also be used. People who can’t take an mRNA vaccine because of adverse reactions can have the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine as a booster."

and

"Concerns have been raised in the past as well about multiple dosing of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, because repeated exposure to the virus vector used to deliver the active ingredient could elicit a harmful immune response. Results so far suggest that this isn’t a problem with a third dose, says Faust.

There is also no evidence that having booster vaccinations can somehow “overload” the immune system or produce a diminishing response over time. “That’s not a credible concern. It won’t overload the immune system,” says Sarah Gilbert at the University of Oxford, who co-developed the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine."

Regards,

Hotblack.

Hi Blue - is your booster the same vax as your first two jabs? I recall an article in New Scientist noting (I think) that having a different vax as the booster jab could be more beneficial.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/24/scientists-warn-of-new-covid-variant-with-high-number-of-mutations

If anyone's in any doubt, this isn't going away anytime soon.

Stay safe, peeps.

Evening all,

Not sure if this is of any use but it does give an indication of what level of investment a dedicated health related fund might throw at pharma stocks. Keep in mind that Baillie Gifford has £bn's to play with.

https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/literature-library/funds/oeics/health-innovation-fund/health-innovation-fund-monthly-factsheet/

The total market value of the whole fund is just shy of £111m with the largest share holding being Moderna worth £8.7m. Now think about the index that we are soon to be part of (SAR are on page 7) https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_Nov21_MicroPublicList.pdf

The UK additions include energy, wine and logistics companies amongst others so what percentage of any fund investment would be allocated to SAR?

So although some funds might buy in shortly, after initially feeling upbeat, I'm now not too convinced we'll notice anything significant re the sp.

Bit of a pity, but that's my take.

Hi Cornish, one thing to note re funds tracking the MSCI Micro Cap index - as we don't know how many funds actually track that index (how popular can it be?) we can't be sure if our inclusion will do much to our sp, only time will tell.

thrack is not a word, but track is.

Lazarus - any funds that track the MSCI Micro Cap stocks will buy in during Dec.

I've been looking to see who has funds that thrack that index but couldn't find any. There must be some!!

Aye, just found it in the annual report "As noted in the Company's Trading Update of 19 August 2021, we expect to complete the toxicology studies required for this phase of the preclinical programme for SDC-1801 by the end of 2021 and have initiated the process to manufacture drug product for clinical trials. "