Member Info for HotblackDesiato

Morning all,

Probably one just for the data scientists out there but here's some festive cheer in the form of a tracker that allows you to judge which pathogen is most likely to ruin your Xmas dinner.

https://nextstrain.org/

Stay safe, peeps, it's a dangerous world out there.

Having just listened again to the Q&A session from the AGM, it looks like we wouldn't be able to license 1801 to one company for Covid and again to another for non-Covid. Although Tim's reply did include the word 'generally' (suggesting there may be some leeway in negotiations) it appears that splitting indications probably wouldn't be acceptable to a big pharma - understandable, I suppose.

So does this suggests that, ignoring SRA737 for now, we might be closer to a big payday than before?

My thinking is we'll soon progress 1801 via AGILE, perhaps with some of the data applicable to other indications. If so, potential partners will therefore have to cough up more money as they'll be able to use 1801 to treat far more than just Covid (which would be a big money-spinner on its own).

Just my musings so feel free to disagree.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/15/omicron-found-to-grow-70-times-faster-than-delta-in-bronchial-tissue

If only someone had a potential treatment...

Hi Jungle - thanks for confirming that. I thought that would be the case but just wanted to be sure.

Regards.

Let's say the proposed consolidation is 10:1

This means the sp goes to around 50p

Would the HNW peeps still be able to excercise their options as per their agreement i.e. at 8.5p (or whatever the price was)?

If so, then they'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

Anyone able to clarify if the HNWs would be able to benefit in this way?

Thoth - Many thanks for the reply. I hope you don't allow Scarlette to have a parrot on her shoulder - have you ever seen the back of a pirate's coat? A tox hazard if ever there was one.

Hi Thoth - So has your opinion mellowed from late Nov when you were, uh, rather peeved with TM? (Just wondering if we can expect some fireworks tomorrow)

Regards.

Fully agree - it would just be too much of a coincidence for the tox RNS to appear tomorrow so I think they'll get it out at the end of next week as a nice stocking filler to shareholders.

Well, well, well, a great RNS just prior to the AGM. Who could've predicted that ;-)

And we still have the tox report to come - onwards and upwards!!

We've not seen too many attacks lately which could mean one of two things. Either their handlers have now bought in at an acceptable price or we'll soon hear the sound of little paws knocking on our door in time to ham-fistedly sow dissent prior to the AGM and/or tox results.

It's quiet....too quiet!

Hi Aber - very true that the main men should be left to get on with the science but surely that's why there is a BoD - to aid TM & JR on the business side of things. Plus I'd expect MEDiSTRAVA Consulting to lend a hand.

Yep, they don't want any sort of shareholder mutiny at this stage - wouldn't look good to any potential suitors.

When the sp was racing down towards 3p a number of LTHs were very vocal about poor management decisions & delays. It's often been mooted here that some of the BoD read this forum so if they do, they'll be aware of some recent changes in sentiment. As a result, I wouldn't be too surprised if there was an RNS re toxicity and the immediate future released prior to the AGM in order to diffuse any residual anger held by some shareholders.

Personally, I try to be neutral with regard to how SAR is run as the BoD know far more about the business than I do. They cannot control the sp but if they were doing anything to damage the business then that's a different matter.

Regards.

The retweet could be looked at in two ways - firstly, just as a reminder that the tox report is expected before the end of the month. Secondly, not only is the tox report due in a couple of weeks, if any of the data received so far was horrific then the work would've been halted before now.

I'm the last person you should take medical advice from but I'm guessing the toxicity is so low, you could probably splash about in the stuff and the worst that would happen is you get mild hiccups.

I hope your future gains here make up for the losses you alluded to.

Hi Silverfoil, a small leak of information can be a dangerous thing -

Usama Malik, ex-chief financial officer at biotech company Immunomedics, and his former partner, Lauren Wood, who had also previously worked at the firm, have been charged with insider trading, says David Smagalla in The Wall Street Journal. The Securities and Exchange Commission regulator, and the New Jersey US attorney’s office claim Malik and Woods were living together in April 2020 when Malik learned that the US drugs regulator – the Food and Drug Administration – would allow Immunomedics to halt aclinical trial for a breast-cancer drug, after data showed that the drug was effective. A trading blackout barred him or anyone in his household from buying the company’s stock. But according to court papers, it is alleged that Malik passed the information to Wood, who bought around $64,000-worth of shares, realising a $213,000 profit three months later. In September 2020, Gilead Sciences agreed to buy Immunomedics for $21bn.

Anyway, it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...

Hi Bailiff - there was an article in New Scientist last week re using a probiotic to avert sepsis risk in mice:

"Consuming a bacterium found in soil helps mice avoid a blood infection that can lead to sepsis.

Sepsis results from bacteria, including Enterococcus faecalis. These can live in our gut without causing harm, but in people who take antibiotics for long periods or have treatments that weaken immunity, E. faecalis can get into the blood and cause sepsis.

Now, for the first time, there is evidence from experiments in mice that consuming a probiotic can prevent blood infection. The probiotic was in the form of spores from another bacterium, Bacillus subtilis. These are dormant forms of the bacterium that don’t reproduce and resist environmental damage well. On entering the gut, they activate and grow, influencing the growth of other bacteria in the intestine.

Michael Otto at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Maryland and his team gave mice immunity-weakening treatment that people with blood cancer often have, followed by a ****tail of antibiotics.

The team then fed two doses of either B. subtilis spores or placebo before giving a dose of E. faecalis. The next day, the mice that had the placebo had E. faecalis in their blood, where it could cause sepsis, but those that were given the probiotic avoided blood infection (Science Translational Medicine, doi.org/gnksm9)."

Regards.

Morning WIP - did you & your colleagues see the Ch4 Despatches prog on Pfizer? Want to share your thoughts?

STM - Who mentioned lemmings? Not me.

Panic may be beneficial when there is no known survival option. If death is 100 per cent certain, then doing something, even running round in circles, must be better than doing nothing. You may even find a survival option you overlooked before, and then you can’t be worse off than by not panicking.

The right time to panic is just before everyone else does. In other words, to anticipate the crisis and take steps to ensure that, at worst, you won’t be negatively affected, and at best, that you can capitalise on the opportunities that the crisis may present.

If you are cool, calm and collected, while all about you are panicking and losing their heads, then you obviously don’t understand the problem.

Hi Potnak, you have a perfectly valid point with regard to the timescales and so it's feasible the sp could tread water until a CTA is completed. However someone would need balls of steel to think they might be able to sell a chunk of their shares now and invest in something else in the short-term with the expectation that they'll be able to buy back in for around the same sp prior to H2 next year. As you alluded, Sierra might get their finger out.

Everyone here knows SAR doesn't leak and a key RNS could land at any time. I don't know if the forthcoming tox report is priced in at the moment or not but assuming we do get positive results, this is a further derisk and investors will be happier to add more to their holdings if funds allow. How high that demand for more shares will be remains to be seen.

Hope all is well at your end,

Hotblack.