Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It’s nice to see the sp showing dare l say it ‘stability’ but
I’m looking to stock up. Any opinions on when May and June sailings will be cancelled as l’m hoping for a bounce?
Following the Etonian Twats announcement on 22nd maybe?
That should have said please do not underestimate covid ??
Don’t post on here often but glad to be alive to make this post.
I diligently researched Saga which resulted in me investing more than l ever have in one company.
I have been happy to wait on the resumption of travel to see my investment come to fruition.
Coupled with the successful insurance side, travel for me would be the icing on the cake so to speak.
Then l contracted covid.
Despite enjoying well above average fitness for my 50 years, l thought it was game over.
Please do not understand this bastard, keep doing the things that keep you safe, we are nearly there.
I’m getting stronger every day and take some comfort in recent rises.
The irony of this post covid recovery for both myself and Saga’s share price is not lost on me.
Some good posts of late, glad to be catching up ??
Expected this to boom on the Astra news.
Funny old game this share buying lark ??
There’ll be few travel insurance policies, never mind claims.
Take on board all the calculations re insurance.
I’d happily accept last years figures and allow fewer car/house claims to counter lack of travel insurance.
Following Trading Update, a new Market Cap that reflects reality, positive news that the vaccine is doing it’s job, the 50 plus brigade going completely off their tits for holidays and cruising finally restarting.
My prediction is that firstly l will be slightly pished with the success of it all ?? and more importantly - £10.00 plus per share this time next year.
Qualified by it being £7.00 a share approx when covid hit and it now being a far slicker operation.
Insurance side consistently magnificent and cruise coming up on the rails ??
Happy Xmas to all and thanks for input from many on hers. Cheers.
Hi Banbury.
I’ve analysed Apr, May, Jul & Aug.
The two start up months and the main summer ones.
Chose them because it’s probably a bit early to look at months later in the year.
Yes, l know many book cruises well in advance but l think more still book say 6-9 months ahead.
That said, have a look at the cruise leaving Jan 5, 2022.
83 nights ??, already 52.96% sold.
Minimum price per person of .....drumroll.....£19,428.00!!
Average price of remaining cabins £269.00 pppn.
Again, that’s before any extras.
Brexit, vaccines and travel given the final go and we are quids in.
Banbury,
l think below is an example of why the cruise director spoke about the ‘best bookings in history’
5 Cruises begin in AUGUST
2nd - 13 nights (Discovery)
132/540 cabins available
75.56% of cabins sold.
Avg pppn of cabins still available = £336.85
3rd - 7 nights (Adventure)
147/540 available
72.78% of cabins sold.
Avg pppn of cabins still available = £350.62
10th - 19 nights (Adventure)
40/540 available
92.60% of cabins sold.
Avg pppn of cabins still available = £412.06
15th - 18 nights (Discovery)
233/540 available
56.85% of cabins sold.
Avg pppn of cabins still available = £283.40
29th - 15 nights (Adventure)
150/540 available
72.23% of cabins sold.
Avg pppn of cabins still available = £336.60
Avg occupancy AUGUST = 74.00%
No account has been taken for single occupancy.
Avg pppn AUGUST = £343.91
Price pppn for cabins remaining may not be the same as pppn of cabins sold. However, a good selling cruise (as per 3rd one above) shows prices clearly go up ??
These figures (particularly the 3rd cruise above) are quite incredible.
Remind me the date of the Jan update again.
I might just need to sell a kidney to top up.
4 Cruises begin in JULY
3rd - 16 nights (Adventure)
249/540 cabins available
53.89% of cabins sold.
Avg pppn of cabins still available = £295.47
13th - 5 nights (Discovery)
236/540 available
56.30% of cabins sold.
Avg pppn of cabins still available = £291.95
18th - 15 nights (Discovery)
245/540 available
54.63% of cabins sold.
Avg pppn of cabins still available = £295.64
19th - 15 nights ((Adventure)
170/540 available
68.52% of cabins sold.
Avg pppn of cabins still available = £324.34
Avg occupancy JULY = 58.34%
No account has been taken for single occupancy.
Avg pppn JULY = £301.85
Price pppn for cabins remaining may not be the same as pppn of cabins sold. However, a good selling cruise (as per 4th one above) shows prices clearly go up ??
Banbury,
If l appear flippant about the 80% figure it’s because it’s currently 0% and cruising is basically squandering the 100 million of lovely insurance money.
If we achieve 80 then we both know it’s party time ??
Hi Banbury,
Yeah l was aware of the 80% occupancy and if l recall correctly the £210 pppn target or was it £230?
Either way they appear to be more than achieving that target price.
There are slightly over 100 single cabins on each ship and the single price is of course more expensive. Given that l’ve made no provision for that then it is as you rightly say a wee bonus.
I think you have to look beyond April and May to square the ‘best bookings in history’ quote.
For example June’s figures are well over 60% occupancy.
I myself am desperate to get back on a cruise but l probably wouldn’t book anything before July/August.
I’ll have a squint at July and August and if they are anything over say 65% then l get where cruise director is coming from.
Might pick a random month in 2022 as well.
Aspers - Interestingly, Saga have cancelled an America trip for September. So they are looking way ahead.
I think there’s a decent chance they’ll be cruising in May though, happy to give up on April as there are only two scheduled.
The point l am trying to make is that the occupancy figures are fantastic.
People keep going on about Saga needing 80% occupancy because they read it somewhere. These figures show that they are nearly at that figure already. They also appear to be achieving a higher rate per person per night than targeted. Pick any trip you like and work out the average pppn rate for cabins still to be sold and it’s about the £300 mark.
As always, sea can be bumpy but buying Saga shares will get you to the Amalfi Coast ??
Posted these figures on 6th Dec, have now updated with today’s figures - 15 days later.
April and May cruises - proposed to be first two months back.
April 3rd - 9 nights Discovery
Cabins avail. 277/540 = 48.71% sold (Unchanged).
April 12th - 24 nights Discovery
Cabins avail. 110/540 = 79.63% sold (Unchanged).
May 21st - 5 nights Discovery
Cabins avail. was 133/540 = 75% now 125/540 = 76.85% sold.
May 26th - 22 nights Discovery
Cabins avail. was 153/540 = 71% now 142/540 = 73.70% sold.
May 4th - 16 nights Adventure
Cabins avail. was 162/540 = 70% now 144/540 = 73.33% sold.
May 20th 14 nights Adventure
Cabins avail. was 111/540 = 79% now 105/540 = 80.55% sold.
Avg sold for the 6 cruises on 6th dec was 70.56%.
Avg sold for the 6 cruises on 21st dec = 72.13%
Avg sold for 5 cruises on 21st dec if they were to cancel the first one back = 76.81%
DYOR but occupancy figures (three and a months in advance) are impressive, remain progressive and price per person per night is fantastic.
Go try book a trip and see the costs for yourself.
Might not be Monday but if we get:
Brexit deal
Resumption of UK cruising
Continuing good vaccine news (especially in Europe)
then to be blunt
You simply won’t have bought enough SAGA shares
See my previous comment re uptake
Saga Cruises for April & May
Average price per person per day of cabins still to be sold.
Cruise 1 - £277
Cruise 2 - £315
Cruise 3 - £312
Cruise 4 - £276
Cruise 5 - £304
Cruise 6 - £340
Avg. = £304 per person per day
x 2000 people (2 ships)
= £608,000 per day
x 365 days in year
= £221,920,000 per annum
Let’s be negative and say they achieve an 80% uptake.
= £177,536,000
Let’s put both ships out of use for a month each.
divide by 24 then multiply by 22
= £162,741,333.
That’s before the clientele buy extras.
Astonishing.
..... and l haven’t even mentioned the insurance side.
Fantastic future growth ??
Did a wee bit research re. uptake of SAGA cruises.
Only looked at first 2 months back (April & May) and based figures on the rooms still being sold.
April 3rd - 9 nights Discovery
Cabins avail. 277/540 = 49% sold
April 12th - 24 nights Discovery
Cabins avail. 110/540 = 80% sold
May 21st - 5 nights Discovery
Cabins avail. 133/540 = 75% sold
May 26th - 22 nights Discovery
Cabins avail. 153/540 = 72% sold
May 4th - 16 nights Adventure
Cabins avail. 162/540 = 70% sold
May 20th - 14 nights Adventure
Cabins avail. 111/540 = 79% sold
Avg. for first 6 cruises back = 71% sold.
Figures are fantastic and l will run them again in 6 to 8 weeks.
Also going to try and work out a rough average of price paid per person per week - which l can only really do by averaging what is still to be sold.
Won’t be easy to work out but figures will be extremely impressive.
So glad l’m in before the market wakes up.
You’re welcome ??
We’re heading for a dip, hope l can find the bottom.