Member Info for Holy1

For the AGM today, I hope they seated Goldy, Sanks, Oliver Shah, City Spy & Matts Mum at the front.

I didn’t realise the 2020 IPO was only 35% of shares, 376k or £1.88bn. Not that much if you split it that way.

Hey maestro. Understood, if they share that they are seriously planning on PE or private options.

If not, I want to hear that they are continuing to deliver the strategy as planned. I also have a bias for the SoftBank / ingenuity spin off.

Steven Whitehead all said “to briefly pick up on SoftBank. The SoftBank option kicks in once separation is completed. It completes in Q2, but there's nothing to update on that at this point. It would be something for later in the year”
We’re in the last month of Q2.
Fingers crossed.
Full transcript: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502838-thg-plc-thghy-ceo-matthew-moulding-on-q4-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript

I do think they need to answer that.
At the FY21 call in April, Guido Lucarelli from Citi asked: “on Beauty, I think in the past you spoke about the possibility to separate this business. I was wondering what's the plan there, if you can share with us any update on this”
MM replied: “ our plans around Beauty, obviously, with the appointment of Charles, more recently, myself and Charles has just taken the opportunity of -- taken a broader view on the various things that -- the opportunities that we have in front of us. So for now, I would wait until the outcome of that.”
This was before Steven Whitehead went on to talk the right environment for THG.

Nice, £459k worth of buys at 4:26pm. Someone topping up.

Oh great, W1nky is back

Agree 1pencil. The bidders Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are scooping up shares. Also Barclays. Everyone else holding the line.

Stronger volume today, weighted towards Buys, must be a good sign.
Really interesting Apollo have put a c. £6bn bid in for Boots in the current climate, a business with a huge cost base and pension fund.
THG have huge growth opportunity, newer systems, a lower cost base and are agile.

good spot, also shows a c.£6bn deal is possible

and the forecast for Manchester tomorrow is sunny.
Time for our new chairman, with extensive PE experience, to shine.
The businesses has been preparing for a spin off in the background for over 12 months.
They shared in April they were reviewing ‘what environment is the best environment’ for THG ‘private or public’.
Two close contacts of THG announcing takeover interest. SoftBank still holding.
They can't be taking either of these options lightly, and the impact this uncertainty has on the team morale... ?
And MM talked about driving share holder value, they must know if they don't nail the next week the impact this will have.
And what has happened to ADFVN over last few weeks, pure distortion... Bonkers!
I believe in my research, this is a solid growth business, the markets they play in are strong & I think THG Ingenuity is a hidden gem. They have everything they need to land a plan.

& Barclays (linked to THG) adding 3.6m?

Yesterdays total volume was low at c.3.5m (we're at c. 2.7m at 11am today). Looks like Morgan Stanley (linked to King Street) and Bank of America (linked to Candy Ventures) were both pretty active yesterday based on the latest RNS.

No real change so far this week, with the Total at 78.2%. The big money is holding.

INVESTOR %
Matt Moulding 22.2%
Sofina 9.01%
Balderton 7.94%
Jupiter Fund Management 7.81%
Softbank 6.6%
T Rowe 3.1%
Barclays 2.9%
Vanguard Group 2.53%
Qatar Investment 2.24%
Norges Bank 1.72%
GIC Private LTD 1.55%
Richard Griffiths 1.47%
West Coast Capital 1.41%
Sir T Leahy 1.32%
Blackrock 1.26%
Maybank 1.2%
Dominic Murphy 1.09%
Ophorst Van Marwijk Kooy 1.05%
John Gallemore 0.82%
Iain McDonald 0.59%
Kings Street/Belerion 0.25%
Candy 0.08%
Jeffries 0.07%
Charles Butler 0.04%
Zillah Byng-Thorne 0.01%
TOTAL 78.2%

@1Pencil, I thought all investors >1% had to declare their holding within 10 trading days of the bid? So I can't understand why Sofina is the only one missing an RNS?

It does all feel a bit clumsy & More fuel for the press (although I’m surprised the Times haven’t published something yet, which makes me feel they’re scratching their heads also).
Hope Sir Charles realises they need to counteract it with some positive news.

If they don't sell, I think the spin off of Ingenuity is interesting.
Softbank invested £480m in THG at £5.96 May 21, which is a loss of c.£(370)m today.
This investment gave Softbank the option to invest £1.1m, for 20% in THG Ingenuity giving it a MC of £4.5bn
As THG said at the annual results, the world has changed. If you look at Shopify it's dropped 69% in the last 12 months but still has a solid MC. A rough comparison would give THG Ingenuity a MC today of £3bn.
So can Softbank save face? They renegotiate the deal and offer £775m for 20% at the new MC, a +30% discount vs May 21. Alongside other investors who also value Ingenuity, recognise it's delivered against IPO, continues to grow, could be worth many multiples in a different listing and bullish market.
This has a secondary benefit and increases the THG shares, also recovering +£200-£300m of Softbanks investment on paper in the short term. Win/Win?
*I'm sure some of my numbers are off, I tried to factor in the stronger dollar, but hopefully get the idea

The volume has definitely dried up and the small amount seems weighted to Buys. Feels like we’re drifting in the fog this week. Hopefully we emerge in the sun on a yacht in Mallorca!

Maybe an RNS pre AGM to confirm the board have agreed that Candy Ventures and Kings Street can both join SoftBank, as they spin off THG Ingenuity. MC £4.5bn. Supported by the newly appointed CEO of Ingenuity. That should rocket the SP.

Totally agree. There must still be some II holdings of <1% which haven't been declared.
PI of c.10%.

A couple of updates, move this to 78.3%

INVESTOR %
Matt Moulding 22.2%
Sofina 9.01%
Balderton 7.94%
Jupiter Fund Management 7.81%
Softbank 6.6%
T Rowe 3.1%
Barclays 2.9%
Vanguard Group 2.53%
Qatar Investment 2.24%
Norges Bank 1.72%
GIC Private LTD 1.55%
Richard Griffiths 1.47%
West Coast Capital 1.41%
Sir T Leahy 1.32%
Blackrock 1.26%
Maybank 1.2%
Dominic Murphy 1.09%
Ophorst Van Marwijk Kooy 1.05%
John Gallemore 0.82%
Iain McDonald 0.59%
Kings Street/Belerion 0.25%
Candy 0.08%
Jeffries 0.08%
Charles Butler 0.04%
Zillah Byng-Thorne 0.01%
TOTAL 78.3%